Forecasting The Past

“Megadrought may be the main weather concern across the West right now amid the constant threat of wildfires and earthquakes. But a new study warns another crisis is looming in California: “Megafloods.” Climate change is increasing the risk of floods that could submerge cities and displace millions of people across the state, according to a study released Friday. It says that an extreme monthlong storm could bring feet of rain – in some places, more than 100 inches – to hundreds of miles of California. Similarly unrelenting storms have happened in the past, before the region became home to tens of millions of people. Now, each degree of global warming is dramatically increasing the odds and size of the next megaflood, the study says.”

Experts warn California of a disaster ‘larger than any in world history.’ It’s not an earthquake.

The study is describing the 1861-1862 flood, which happened at much lowers CO2 levels and hasn’t happened since.

Great Flood of 1862 – Wikipedia

That flood was immediately followed by one California’s worst droughts from 1862-1865.

“After the deluge, what? The drought. It began in the fall of 1862, and lasted to the winter of 1864-65, The rainfall for the season of 1862-63 did not exceed four inches, and that of 1863-64 was oven less. In the fall of 1863 a few showers fell, but not enough to start the grass. No more fell until March. ‘The cattle were dying of starvation. Herds ‘of gaunt, skeleton-like forms, moved slowly over the plains in search of food. Here and there, singly or in small groups, poor brutes, too weak to move on, stood motionless with drooping heads slowly dying of starvation. It was a pitiful sight. -In the long stretch of arid plain between San Gabriel and the Santa Ana there was one oasis of luxuriant green. It was the vineyards of the Anaheim colonists kept green by irrigation. The colony lands were surrounded by a close willow-hedge, and the streets closed by gates. The starving cattle, frenzied by the sight of something green, would gather around the inclosure and make desperate attempts to break through. A mounted guard patrolled the outside of the barricade day and night to protect the vineyards from incursion by the starving herds.

The loss of cattle was fearful. The plains were strewn with their carcasses. In marshy places and around the cienegas, where there was a vestige of green, the ground was covered with their skeletons, and the traveler for years afterward was often startled by coming suddenly on a veritable Golgotha—a place of skulls—the long horns standing out in defiant attitude, as if protecting the fleshless bones. It is said that 30,000 head of cattle died on the Stearns Ranchos alone. ‘The great drought of 1863-64 put an end to cattle raising as the distinctive industry of Southern California.”

EXCEPTIONAL YEARS: A HISTORY OF CALIFORNIA FLOODS AND DROUGHT

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CNN’s War On Science

“(CNN)The Great Salt Lake in Utah has dropped to its lowest level on record for the second time in less than a year as a climate change-fueled megadrought tightens its grip in the West.”

Great Salt Lake falls to lowest level on record for second year in a row – CNN

“February 1, 1900

Great Salt Lake Shrinking.

The reason why the Great Salt Lake in Utah is growing smaller, according to Prof. J. E. Talmage, is that the volume of water from its four tributary rivers is being more or less diverted by irrigation. Prof. J. E. Talmage says the water of the lake is growing each year more acrid as it shrinks in size, and he thinks that in another 100 years it will be replaced by a glittering bed of dry salt.—San Francisco Chronicle.

Turner County Herald, Feb 1, 1900, p. 6 | NewspaperArchive®

“January 3, 1936

GREAT SALT LAKE SHRINKING

Great Salt Lake is. still shrinking. This is largely due to the fact that farms and cities are using more and more of the water from the streams that previously fed it. As a matter of fact, Great Salt Lake has been shrinking for many centuries. It was once a great inland sea known as Lake Bonneville. At that time it covered some 19,000 square miles of central Utah or an area equal to twice that of Lake Erie. Traces of shoreline have been found at 17 distinct levels, the highest being 1,000 feet above the present level.”

Quanah Tribune Chief, Jan 3, 1936, p. 12

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Wuhan Lujan’s War On Science

“We are witnessing the aridification of the West in real time. The nation-leading work my administration has done and continues to do to reduce emissions, mitigate the effects of climate change, and develop a 50-year water plan is more important than ever.”

12:30 PM · Jul 25, 2022

Rio Grande streamflow is above normal in Albuquerque with above normal rainfall in the forecast for the rest of the month.

USGS | National Water Dashboard

10-Day Precipitation Outlook for the Conterminous U.S.

Two years ago Scientific American praised her “science-based” approach to COVID, right before cases skyrocketed.

How New Mexico Controlled the Spread of COVID-19 – Scientific American

Since then, COVID-19 cases in New Mexico have increased by a factor of ten, and the governor has locked the state down again.

How New Mexico Controlled the Spread of COVID-19 – Scientific American

New Mexico has one of the highest vaccination rates in the US and the sixth highest COVID-19 death rate. Here in Wyoming we have the second lowest vaccination rate and did much better than New Mexico.

More Than 12.4 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

United States COVID – Coronavirus Statistics – Worldometer

Have we flattened the curve in New Mexico? – Johns Hopkins

Have we flattened the curve in Wyoming? – Johns Hopkins

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President Cheney

“Cheney faces daunting prospects in her effort to fend off the Trump-backed Harriet Hageman, increasingly looking at a life beyond Capitol Hill that could include a possible presidential campaign.”

Cheney and Murkowski: Trump critics facing divergent futures | AP News

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Stopping The Spread

Masks worked so well that now almost everybody has been exposed.

CDC relaxes COVID-19 guidelines on quarantines, social distancing

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Media War On Science

“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.”

– Richard Feynman

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Tacloban Typhoons

Washington Evening Journal, Nov 30, 1912, p. 1

29 Nov 1912, Page 1 – The Oregon Daily Journal at Newspapers.com

29 Nov 1912, 1 – Lincoln Journal Star at Newspapers.com

30 Nov 1912 – DEADLY TYPHOON. – Trove

TimesMachine: November 29, 1912 – NYTimes.com

29 Nov 1897, Page 1 – Daily News-Democrat at Newspapers.com

12 Jan 1898 – TYPHOON AND TIDAL WAVE IN THE PHILLIPINES. – Trove

TimesMachine: November 28, 1897 – NYTimes.com

Lubbock Morning Avalanche, Dec 27, 1947, p. 1

Tipton County Tribune, Oct 28, 1988, p. 1

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Boris Building Back Better

“Britain’s energy crisis will push millions into destitution this winter unless the government hands out more cash to help struggling households pay fuel bills, Rishi Sunak, the trailing candidate in the contest to become Britain’s next leader, said.”

More cash needed to save Britons from destitution in energy crisis – PM contender Sunak

“In the UK, through our net zero strategy, we’re pioneering a green industrial revolution, with public investment leveraging billions of pounds of private funding into whole new industries from offshore wind to carbon capture and storage allowing us in the UK to level up our whole country with thousands of new green jobs. And by partnering with developing and emerging economies to invest in climate-smart infrastructure, and meeting our $100 billion climate finance commitment”

PM remarks at COP26 Build Back Better meetings: 2 November 2021 – GOV.UK

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Superstition Based Science

In 1846, climate analysis was based on superstition – and it still is in the year 2022.

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The Press Vs. Science

The press says the Great Salt Lake is shrinking due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Scientists say that isn’t true.

Utah’s Great Salt Lake has lost half its water, thanks to thirsty humans | Science | AAAS

“February 1, 1900

Great Salt Lake Shrinking.

The reason why the Great Salt Lake in Utah is growing smaller, according to Prof. J. E. Talmage, is that the volume of water from its four tributary rivers is being more or less diverted by irrigation. Prof. J. E. Talmage says the water of the lake is growing each year more acrid as it shrinks in size, and he thinks that in another 100 years it will be replaced by a glittering bed of dry salt.—San Francisco Chronicle.

Turner County Herald, Feb 1, 1900, p. 6 | NewspaperArchive®

“January 3, 1936

GREAT SALT LAKE SHRINKING

Great Salt Lake is. still shrinking. This is largely due to the fact that farms and cities are using more and more of the water from the streams that previously fed it. As a matter of fact, Great Salt Lake has been shrinking for many centuries. It was once a great inland sea known as Lake Bonneville. At that time it covered some 19,000 square miles of central Utah or an area equal to twice that of Lake Erie. Traces of shoreline have been found at 17 distinct levels, the highest being 1,000 feet above the present level.”

Quanah Tribune Chief, Jan 3, 1936, p. 12

06 Aug 1902, 1 – The Idaho Statesman at Newspapers.com

29 Sep 1951 – “HERALD” SATURDAY MAGAZINE Glaciers, Icebergs Meit As World Gets Warmer – Trove

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