Real Climate Science

Michael Moore confirms what skeptics have been saying about imaginary green energy for the past 12 years.

The percent of days above freezing has been declining in the US for a century, with last year among the lowest.

The 2012 London Olympics opening ceremony was a beautiful and unforgettable tribute to the National Health Service. Something to appreciate and ponder during this time of climate crisis.

Here is the complete ceremony. The dancing nurse scenes are very touching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4As0e4de-rI

Too bad we won’t be having an Olympics this year.

Art imitates life. Or something like that.

Donald Trump wants to put people back to work, and get government off their backs.

Democrats want to put everyone on welfare.

A lot of people I know are very afraid of COVID-19. Many have essentially suspended life “until the virus is gone.”  President Trump wants to get America back to work, but fear is holding the country back. In this blog post I am going to show why there is good reason to expect that things are going to get better.

A month ago, the press was full of stories like this, implying that everybody was going to die in a few months, as the disease rises out of control in an exponential curve.

Why ‘Exponential Growth’ Is So Scary For The COVID-19 Coronavirus

This led to panicked decisions by governors and mayors, who shut everything down and crushed the economy, putting more than 20 million Americans out of work so far.

But the exponential rise did not continue. After three weeks, new cases plateaued.

United States Coronavirus: 728,293 Cases and 38,244 Deaths – Worldometer

Most other countries have followed similar three week patterns.  New cases in Italy are down significantly from their peak.

Italy Coronavirus: 175,925 Cases and 23,227 Deaths – Worldometer

The three week rise is fairly typical for these type of viral outbreaks. The graph below is for the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu, which globally killed five hundred times as many people as COVID-19, most of whom were at prime of life in their teens, 20s and 30s. The Spanish Flu also showed a three week exponential rise, followed by a sharp decline. But three weeks into the outbreak, people probably assumed it was going to kill everybody.

Spanish flu – Wikipedia

10 Oct 1919, 7 – The Topeka State Journal at Newspapers.com

The graphs below put the magnitude of 1918-1919 flu in perspective.

An Israeli mathematician  has shown that a similar pattern is happening all over the Northern Hemisphere with the current outbreak. He also says that lockdowns serve little purpose other than to decimate the economy.

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days | The Times of Israel

Here is some data which supports his contention.  Regardless of lockdown policy, most industrialized Western countries are on similarly shaped trajectories with a downwards curvature.

Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million: are we bending the curve?

Here is data from Colorado, where the state was locked down on March 25. Deaths are becoming rare in Colorado, and are a tiny fraction of what models predicted. A large percentage of the deaths were in nursing homes.

Case data | Colorado COVID-19 Updates

At first glance, it appears that the lockdown was successful – but let’s take a closer look at that idea. There is typically a three week lag between infection and death.

The coronavirus death lag explained: How it can take weeks for fatality to be recorded | Daily Mail Online

This means that the effect of the Colorado lockdown would be just starting to show up in the graph now. However, the curve started to tail off two weeks ago, long before the lockdown would have had much (if any) effect on death rates.

The governor will of course take credit for this, even though there is little evidence to support that idea.  More likely Colorado is just following the same curve described by the Israeli mathematicians.

So far, this has been a largely Northern Hemisphere problem, though that is starting to shift a little.

Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV)

Coronaviruses typically peak during the winter, and then tail off as UV light increases in the spring.

It is likely that southern hemisphere countries like Australia (which have had little problem so far) will keep their borders closed indefinitely as winter approaches.  But here in the Northern Hemisphere there is good reason to expect things will get better, and that young healthy people will be able to back to work, if there are any jobs left to go back to.

In my next blog post on this topic I will discuss risk levels for different age groups, and the Swedish strategy to obtain “herd immunity” by the end of May. But in the meantime, let’s support President Trump and get America back to work!

Watch Live: Thunderbirds salute essential workers with Colorado flyover | WAVY.com

These guys just flew over, right outside my window. First planes I have seen in about a week.

Experts report the western US is having the “worst megadrought in the modern age.”

Megadrought in Western U.S. Worst in Region in 1,200 Years | Time

Actual data shows that the western US has gotten slightly wetter over the past century, with the last five years above average precipitation.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/60mPNormWRCC.png

I took this picture a month ago along the Agua Fria River north of Phoenix, which has the most water in 40 years.

And this spectacular waterfall was in Oak Creek Canyon between Sedona and Flagstaff.

California used to get 200 year long droughts.

Severe Ancient Droughts: A Warning to California – The New York Times

The official California permanent drought was announced four years ago.

California Braces for Unending Drought – The New York Times

Thanks El Niño, But California’s Drought Is Probably Forever | WIRED

And last year, the drought was so deep, residents had to dig their way out of it.

In Mammoth, the snow is so deep residents must tunnel out. There’s a history to that – Los Angeles Times

Two of the last three years had record snow in California, so the San Francisco Chronicle has quite predictably announced the end of California skiing.

How ski resorts in California are preparing for warmer winters – San Francisco Chronicle

But they had to wait until after the Fourth of July ….

California’s summer skiing: Squaw Valley open until July 7

Two of the authors of this paper are from Boulder, Colorado – where we are having our snowiest winter on record.

Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought | Science

Link

Four weeks ago, America’s economy was possibly the strongest ever. Now it is in very bad shape. President Trump wants to get Americans back to work, but America is being held back by fear.

1. Governors know that if they open up, they will be viciously attacked and blamed by the press over each new death.
2. Democratic strategists are fearful if the President is successful, he will get re-elected. So they are undermining his every move.
3. Fear that opening up will cause more deaths.
4. Many Americans are afraid of other people now, and won’t be willing to go back to work or eat at a restaurant until the virus is “eliminated” – which isn’t going to happen any time in the foreseeable future. They are on semi-permanent self-quarantine, whether they realize it or not.

The key to getting people back to work is going to be managing fear. I am going to be doing a series of blog posts and videos discussing how to help our president bring America back from mass panic.