Real Climate Science

As I have been saying for most of the last decade (including two days ago) climate scientists are incompetent hacks who have no clue how to interpret gravity data.

NASA glaciologist Jay Zwally first challenged the “consensus” on Antarctica in 2015 when he published a paper showing ice sheet growth in eastern Antarctica outweighed the losses in the western ice sheet.

Zwally will again challenge the prevailing narrative of how global warming is affecting the South Pole. Zwally said his new study will show, once again, the eastern Antarctic ice sheet is gaining enough ice to offset losses in the west.

So, why is there such a big difference between Zwally’s research and what 80 scientists recently published in the journal Nature?

There are several reasons for the disagreement, but the biggest is how researchers make what’s called a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which takes into account the movement of the Earth under ice sheets.

Scientists use models to measure the movement of land mass in response to changes the ice sheet sitting on top. For example, Zwally said eastern Antarctica’s land mass has been going down in response to ice sheet mass gains.

That land movement effects ice sheet data, especially in Antarctica where small errors in GIA can yield big changes ice sheet mass balance — whether ice is growing or shrinking. There are also differences in how researchers model firn compaction and snowfall accumulation.

“It needs to be known accurately,” Zwally said. “It’s an error of being able to model. These are models that estimate the motions of the Earth under the ice.”

Zwally’s 2015 study said an isostatic adjustment of 1.6 millimeters was needed to bring satellite “gravimetry and altimetry” measurements into agreement with one another.

Shepherd’s paper cites Zwally’s 2015 study several times, but only estimates eastern Antarctic mass gains to be 5 gigatons a year — yet this estimate comes with a margin of error of 46 gigatons.

Zwally, on the other hand, claims ice sheet growth is anywhere from 50 gigatons to 200 gigatons a year.

Upcoming Research Will Buck The ‘Consensus’ And Show Antarctica Is Still Gaining Ice | The Daily Caller

I find it incredible that anyone would be stupid enough to report precision ten times greater than their error, but nothing from these incompetent hacks known as climate scientists surprises me any more.  Nobody knows what is going on under the ice sheet, and claiming they can detect gravity changes in a two mile thick low density ice sheet sitting on top of five thousand miles of dynamic high density rock – is beyond the pale.

And the same problem also applies to fake Greenland graphs like the one below. People who make these graphs have absolutely no clue what they are doing, other than defrauding the public.

Ten years ago, Arctic sea ice was very thin and our top climate scientists announced the ice was screaming and was about to disappear.

North Pole could be ice free in 2008 | New Scientist

Star-News – Google News Archive Search

Ice near the pole has doubled in thickness since then, ice volume is the highest in thirteen years, and is melting the slowest on record.

Spreadsheet    Data

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20080616.png (1337×1113)

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180616.png (1337×1113)

Climate scientists have absolutely no clue what they are talking about, but if you reject their junk science, you are an evil denier.

In a letter to the Washington Post, Sherwood Boehlert, a retired Republican congressman who once headed the house science committee, wrote: “I call on my fellow Republicans to open their minds to rethinking what has largely become our party’s line: denying that climate change and global warming are occurring and that they are largely due to human activities.”

US climate scientists fight back after year of scepticism | Environment | The Guardian

We are expecting another three inches of rain this week.

Arctic sea ice volume is highest in 13 years, and melting at the slowest rate on record.  During most years, after July 25th volume melt rates drop off sharply, so Arctic alarmists have about 40 days to wipe out 20 trillion tons of ice.

Spreadsheet    Data

Thick ice is blocking both the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180615.png (1337×1113)

The next two weeks typically have the highest volume melt rates of the year, and cold weather is forecast over the Arctic.

10-Day Temperature Outlook

Rather than admitting their prophets are incompetent, clueless and wrong, Arctic alarmists will continue to whine, complain and nitpick.  But their scam is just about out of steam – and the clock is ticking.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

For the second year in a row, Greenland’s surface has gained well above average amounts of ice.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI

Climate experts have tried to blame this on warm sea surface temperatures, but the water around Greenland is record cold.

anomnight.6.14.2018.gif (1174×640)

As we approach the summer solstice, temperatures in Greenland’s interior are -13C.

summit:status:webcam

Desperate to keep their scam alive, climate experts have ramped up the BS to the highest level in at least four centuries.

Ice cores show Greenland’s melting is unprecedented in at least four centuries – The Washington Post

Graphs like the one above purporting to ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica are worthless, for several reasons.

1. The are generated by people with  a global warming agenda who don’t understand the mathematics and science underlying their calculations.
2. Gravity data shouldn’t change as the ice grows or melts.

9.4 Isostasy – Physical Geology

The Greenland ice sheet is two miles thick and is is very heavy. It’s weight depresses the crust and causes the mantle to be displaced to the sides.  The mass of displaced mantle is approximately equal to the mass of the ice sheet.  If the ice sheet was growing, it would cause an equal mass of mantle to be displaced to the sides.  If the ice sheet was shrinking, it would cause an equal mass of the mantle to flow back under the ice sheet.  Whether the ice sheet is expanding or shrinking, the total mass in a vertical column should be relatively constant.

Climate scientists aren’t very bright, and don’t understand the basics of geology and geophysics.

estimates failed to account for glacial isostatic adjustment

Climate Change: New Study Halves the Rate of Ice Cap Melt | TIME.com

Unless you understand what is going on underneath the ice sheet, you can’t use gravity data – and no one really knows what is going on underneath the ice sheet.  Rock is three times as dense as ice, and small changes in geology show up as imaginary large changes in ice.

Greenland’s largest glaciers have been expanding over the past six years.

https://go.nasa.gov/2ylEMDl

The surface mass balance is rapidly growing.  But let’s ignore all that and focus on junk science gravity interpretations by climate science hacks.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI

Arctic sea ice volume is highest for the date in 13 years, and the 30 day melt rate is the smallest on record.

Climate dimwits like to make graphs like this one, predicting the Arctic will be ice-free by 2045 based on September sea ice volume.

Spreadsheet    Data

But if they actually looked at the data they would realize that this can’t happen, because the Arctic gains large amounts of ice every September.

In order to get an ice-free Arctic there would have to be almost no ice left at the end of July, because very little volume melt occurs after July 31. Climate experts have only six weeks of blowtorching to achieve their goal.

Ice volume is still near the peak, above average, and melting at the slowest rate on record.

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180614.png (1337×1113)

Mainstream climate science is toast. As I have been predicting since I started writing about this topic ten years ago.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

Arctic sea ice is melting at the slowest rate on record, and volume is the highest in thirteen years.

Spreadsheet    Data

The graphs below show why this is a huge problem for climate alarmists. Due to recent cold summers in the Arctic, peak melt rates have dropped over the past 15 years. The Arctic used to regularly see months which lost over a trillion tons of ice, but recent years have generally had much slower melt rates.

But here is the real problem for alarmists.  The only months where significant melting occurs are June and July. By August, the sun is too low in the sky to melt much ice – and during August 2006 the Arctic actually gained sea ice.

June is the peak melt month, and this June is seeing record slow melt. Short of an asteroid strike, there is zero chance of an ice-free Arctic this year, or any time in the foreseeable future. Climate alarmists suffer from two main problems.

1. They don’t understand that the Earth is round, and that by mid-August the Sun is too low in the sky to melt ice near the North Pole.
2. They focus on nearly meaningless sea ice extent graphs.

Extent graphs frequently show a large decline in August because early winter storms break up thin ice around the edges. This makes Arctic alarmists feel very relieved, but has little effect on the ice volume.  But no one ever said climate alarmists have much going on upstairs.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

The DMI Greenland daily melt map and graph has been broken for quite some time now, but seems to be having the desired effect for climate alarmists.

The IG says there was no political bias influencing the actions of the FBI.

August 8, 2016 text exchange in which Page asked Strzok “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” and Strzok replied “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it”

You really can’t make this stuff up …..