Hansen says multi-metre sea level rise is “dead certain” this century. How is he doing so far?
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“Predictions of future sea level change are inherently difficult because, we assert, ice sheet disintegration is fundamentally a non-linear process.”
Doesn’t get much more clear than that, I guess. Predictions of Hansen’s crap-spewing are inherently difficult because, I assert, the crap-pressure gradient is fundamentally a function of his THC intake during a given 3 hour period.
As with all of Hansen’s predictions over the last 25 years, the trend is not his friend. When he speaks, he should be made to give a disclaimer-“this man has never made a correct prediction in his life”.
Hansen could have a daily prediction added to the Daily Horoscope in the local paper.
His predictions surely need the same legal disclaimer-
“These predictions are intended for entertainment value only”.
[snip – nothing that could be interpreted as a threat]
His statement is about a non-linear process operating over a century. Drawing a line over a 7 year interval is not really germane.
I see, so the Hansen curve will be much steeper than what I drew.
I can picture Hansen looking at sea-level graphs shouting “Come on! Get up there.. you know you can do it!!”.. and/or “Any day now.. any day now.. it’ll shoot right up! You’ll see!”
His statement is about a non-linear process operating over a century.
No, his statement is about his assertion that, considering his lack of success in predicting, these processes must be “non-linear”. I guess he never heard of the null hypothesis when he was getting his PhD. & that should tell you all you need to know.
How non-linear is this process? It has been 7.5 years. It must be very non-linear not to have showed anything yet! Does it all come in a rush at the end?
Then, what happens after a century? Does this non-linear process just stop again?
In the year 2090, space aliens will aim huge anti-matter powered heat guns at the ice sheets and melt hundreds of feet of ice.
I think Ehrlich was right, it’ll be billions of people (who died from global warming in 2012) having sexual relations on the ice that will heat the Earth and melt all of the ice.
After a century the snarky comments end.
Why limit it to a century? If the process is sufficiently non-linear – e.g. a “hockey-stick” – think of the possibilities! With a minimal further outlay – a decade or two – the results could be really really spectacular!
5m? Phooey – think big!
Steve’s statement about 2090 is no more disprovable that the “ice free Arctic” prediction for 2020.
No matter how ridiculous it sounds, you still can’t disprove it.
IWB thinks he is clever by trying to make people disprove the disprovable. No matter how many times he crawls out of his hole to make that prediction, it can’t be proved or disproved, so he is wasting everybody’s time.
At least the “end of the world” kook was willing to put his reputation on the line.
Something about James Hansen’s position in the government reminds me of the crazy man that was always after Jeremy Irons movie Kafka.
typo
after Jeremy Irons in the movie Kafka
Steve, Why did you show Alley’s prediction of a linear sea level increase when on the same chart was Hansen’s exponential prediction based on BAU scenario? As crazy as Alley’s chart is, Hansen’s is nuttier. His exponential prediction has 2 meter rise per DECADE but at a time when most who would read this will be dead between 2080 and 2100. According to Morner, we had a max of 2m per century SLR when the planet had 3 mile thick ice in temperate zones and the Sun was really cooking. 2m per decade is the ravings of someone who might just be halucinating. He can’t be in this world. Like most of the AGW predictions they won’t come true but makes for good fodder for realists.