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Wait a minute Steve. I specifically challenged you to give an Arctic forecast for 2020 and your prediction was that the Arctic would expand, shrink or stay the same. Other than the fact that this is a non prediction, the “shrink” part is nullified by this thread’s ‘ha-ha’ prediction that it would never happen.
Compare that to my prediction based on what the real science has to say:
According to most Climatologists the Arctic will be ice free in the summer; for a few days initially; then increasing to weeks and months in subsequent years from 2020-2030. The exception would be a small band of ice north of Alaska, Canada and Greenland that is over colder shallow waters.
I predict 2018-2022.
I’m sorry to see that your “Real Science” has no predictive ability whatsoever. 🙁
Villabolo/Mecago?
I predict 2018-2022.
I’m sorry to see that your “Real Science” has no predictive ability whatsoever.
Prince Charles predicted it would be ice free in 2013 and I suspect that his qualifications to make such a prediction are equally as good as yours.
It is a well known fact that if he had a brain he would be dangerous and I suspect from the fact that you add another five years to his fail, that you fall into the same category.
I predict that in 2022 you will wake up to the reality of summer arctic ice stubbornly in place.
You see how tiresome predictions can be when the happening is in fact unpredictable.
I tend to be very detailed in what I say but it gets tiresome to repeat the same thing over and over again especially when people fail to acknowledge the point.
I specifically said, in at least two previous posts that even if predictions for specific dates where wrong the important thing is that the Arctic ice cap has been thinning and shrinking and will continue to do so.
The ice cap has been shriveling away throughout the past 30 years and, due to the factors that have been causing that melting, will not stop in its melting (pathetic hullabaloo on short term fluctuations notwithstanding).
Compare that to saying that the Arctic ice cap will shrink, expand or stay the same. That’s another way of saying that the predictor doesn’t have a clue. Why should he when the only things posted on this site are arguments of negation?
It’s not even a matter of whether I’m right or wrong. The issue is that one side is committing themselves to actually saying something (like the ice cap will disappear within decades (the exact date is of secondary importance).The other side, however, is saying that anything and everything could happen.
This is what the ‘real science’ of skeptics has been predicting:
“The ice cap is expanding; the ice cap is expanding! So what what if it’s shrinking; so what if it’s shrinking!”
“The world is cooling; the world is cooling! Isn’t it good that it’s warming!
It’s pure Orwellian doublethink.
I predict that you will remain hysterical for the next 30 years.
“I predict that you will remain hysterical for the next 30 years.”.
I predict that you will keep posting the same anecdotal shhtuff and uttering the same non-responses to serious arguments till the day you die.
Yes, history is all anecdotal. The storms and droughts of the past never happened. Reality exists only inside computer models.
“You see how tiresome predictions can be when the happening is in fact unpredictable.”
1. If the future is completely unpredictable then you’re in no position to say what could or could not happen.
2. Therefore you can’t rationally say that our predictions have to be false.
Conclusion; you can’t predict the future ergo you don’t know squat. So you might as well shrug and say: “Maybe you’re right; maybe you’re wrong. Don’t ask me ’cause I don’t have a clue.”
Here’s my prediction again, in graphic form.
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2007/07/16/us/16lede-533.jpg
you can’t rationally say that our predictions have to be false.
Your reading comprehension is at a submoronic level. The only thing we’ve been telling you is that your predictions are predicated on a series of falsehoods. Once you assimilate that, by all means: ask for the next, blindingly obvious step in the logical chain. I’m certain someone will be willing to spoon-feed you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ycY4JdflyQ&feature=related
And that’s all that your ‘real science’ can come up with.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp70E8DY2WY&feature=related
Speaking of performance enhancing…….
Manny Pacquiao. Sarena Williams, Usain Bolt………..
just wonderin.
I predict I’ll be dead by 2100.
Les coureurs du Tour de France ne roulent qu’avec de l’eau de roche.
All of the Tour de France riders race only with mineral water.
I predict that predictors will all be hanged in 2018-2022 by a population bored stiff by predictions.
That now is a good prediction.
I predict and have predicted in the past, that all of you will forget everything you have been saying now. You will change over to the official rationalizations funded by the oil companies and their ‘think tank’ sounding boards suc as the Heartless and Catty institutes.
I predict that in early July 2011 you will deny that any so-called scientists predicted ice-free summers by 2000, 2008, 2011, & 2013. Further, I predict that in 2016 you will deny that any scientists actually predicted ice free summers for all of the intervening years, as well.
My prediction for 2020 is that you will deny having predicted in July of 2011 ice-free summers by 2020.
Here’s an actual challenge for you: using your scientific knowledge, make a risky & unforseeable (to us “denialists” that is) prediction that will come true in the next 6 months. Put some actual money on the line, say 26 weeks’s allowance/ice-cream money, and back it up by shutting up when you’re wrong.
(hint: you’ve already been wrong every single day of 2009, 2010, & 2011 thus far)
I’ve already responded to this cart before the horse nonsense of yours.
The reality of predictions is the reverse of your false “picture”.
Real scientists have been adjusting their predictions from 2050 backwards to 2020-2030. This is due to the fact that the reality of Arctic ice cap shrinkage was underestimated.
The so called scientists that you refer to, with one exception, are just that. Idiots who didn’t have a clue. The exception was Maslowski who was the exception amongst climatologists in predicting a too early date of 2013.
BOTTOM LINE, COWARDS ARE FAILING TO ADDRESS, RATIONALLY AND SCIENTIFICALLY, THE REAL ISSUE OF ICE CAP MELT AND THE FACT THAT IT’S HAPPENING TO THE POINT WHERE IT WILL DISAPPEAR WELL WITHIN THIS CENTURY. ALL YOU CAN DO IS THROW ROTTEN TOMATOES AT STRAWMEN.
THAT’S BECAUSE YOU HAVE NOTHING ELSE TO SAY. YOU ACCOMPLISH ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WITH YOUR NON-SCIENCE.
SO MY CHALLENGE GOES UNANSWERED. WHAT ELSE CAN YOU DO WHEN YOU KNOW NOTHING.
I stand by my forecast. The Arctic will be ice-free the same summer when all the riders at the Tour are clean.
Yeah, I know what the phrase “begging the question” means, do you?
From “by 2000” to “by 2011” to “by 2013” to “by 2016±3” to “by 2020” to (now) “WELL WITHIN THIS CENTURY”.
Way to cover your bases, tool.
Call in 2020 when the polar ice caps (both of them) are doing just fine.
“I stand by my forecast. The Arctic will be ice-free the same summer when all the riders at the Tour are clean.”
And I stand by mine. That is the type of remark made by a (failed) comedian, not a serious thinker. 🙂
@IWB: “That is the type of remark made by a (failed) comedian, not a serious thinker”.
Did you ever stop to think that maybe, just maybe, Steve (and others on this site) make those types of remarks because they just don’t take you seriously? Or do you take yourself so seriously that you simply can’t see it that way? Or is it that deep down, you really love getting into pissing contests with skeptics because you just love all the attention you get from the rebuttals on this site because you don’t get any attention from anyone real in your life, just skeptics in cyberland?
PJ, that is REALLY unfair, and I think you should retract the comment directed at IWB
“Or is it that deep down, you really love getting into pissing contests with skeptics because you just love all the attention you get from the rebuttals on this site because you don’t get any attention from anyone real in your life, just skeptics in cyberland?”
that is why I post here.
Tony Duncan says:
July 4, 2011 at 4:02 am
Perfect example of why I miss Tony…he makes a somewhat serious statement and tops it off with great humor.
-Scott
@Tony Duncan:
It wasn’t a comment, it was a question, hence the question mark at the end. A simple yes or no from IWB would have sufficed. I don’t need you wagging your self-righteous finger at me.
Scott,
apparently some people don’t have a sense of humor.
I predict that witches, witch doctors, fortunetellers, and shaman are still making and living…..
…and there are still plenty of people that believe them
World ends at 10……
…..film at 11
When there is nothing to say but the witticism of fools, there is nothing to respond with but the sarcasm of the wise.
Fortunetellers at least predict something, no matter how wrong it may be but you…
“The Earth is cooling, cooling and isn’t it good that it’s warming?”
“The Arctic ice cap expands and don’t worry that its shrinking; it won’t hurt us.”
“4.5 billion [I’m assuming that’s 10^9, not 10^12, though I’m not so sure they’re not that stupid] dead by 2012″
“More and stronger cyclones”
“west side highway under water”
was that a white or red chicken…………….
“4.5 billion [I’m assuming that’s 10^9, not 10^12, though I’m not so sure they’re not that stupid] dead by 2012?
“More and stronger cyclones”
“west side highway under water”
More claptrap from those who are trying to drown out rational talk about What is what by gibbering about Who (supposedly) said what.
Oh, since you are only capable of gibbering about who says what, let me remind you who it was who clamed that the Arctic would expand to 1979 extent and recover its thickness in just a few years; which should have been just about now.
How many times did I mention this? How many times have you ignored this failed prophecy of yours?
WTF are you talking about?
“WTF are you talking about?”
Since Stark Dickflussig is alluding to what AGWs said or supposedly said, I’m responding to his inability to look at himself in the mirror and see the outrageously ridiculous statements that were made not too long ago on WUWT.
People in glass houses shouln’t throw stones.
Feel free to post the link
IIRC, it wasn’t Steve that said that, although I do think I read it somewhere. It may have actually been a quote (or paraphrase) of what Joe Bastardi was predicting. IIRC, he predicted that 2010 would show less ice extent in Sept then begin to recover (or was it not until 2012 that it would recover?) I don’t take his analysis too seriously, to be honest, but I really don’t remember Steve saying that we would go back to 1979 extent in a few years. Was he even posting at WUWT back in 2008 or so when such a claim would’ve been made (under the assumption that 2008 + a few years = 2011).
Could you please post a link to such a claim?
-Scott
Magical thinking leads to magical results. Feel free to define “a few years” just as stringently as you do for your own side’s predictions dating back more than two decades.
It’s great to pontificate about a forecast ten years in the future, when there is no way to disprove it. Why not forecast something bold less than a year from now so we can all have a good laugh?
How many times has WUWT forecast something 1 year from the present only to be the subject of ridicule? Your exaggerated ice extents; your non existent Arctic recovery? These meaningless taunts of yours are an example of that eternal law of “can’t smell my own”.
Empty wit means nothing. The earth isn’t going to spin around your middle finger nor will the galaxy become a crown twirling around the black hole of your mind. You do not sit on Jehovah’s throne nullifying the laws of physics and creating alternative universes where psychotic ideologues can dwell.
ZZZzzzzz……
How many times has WUWT forecast something 1 year from the present only to be the subject of ridicule?
Yes, how many times has that happened? We are all quite aware that “zero” is a number of times.
I remember when IWB first posted here…he at least tried to be scientific, rational, and cordial. At least I thought so for a few posts. Now most of them just seem to be crazy rants with only a little substance. Too bad.
I miss Tony Duncan…he was usually quite polite and his posts often had considerable substance.
-Scott
@Scott: Here is IWB’s craziest rant ever:
“Ill wind blowing says:
June 26, 2011 at 5:33 am
Palin is subhuman. An eeg test or better yet an MRI would confirm it. She seems to be a psychopath and their brain patterns are so different than the normal population that they stand out.
In any case, your response fails to acknowledge the absurdity of what I pointed out about posting half a dozen worshipful threads about a politician on a Global Warming website.
As for your idiotic name calling, you’re just parroting the standard Foxian/Beckian/Limbaughian/Tea Partying accusation about everyone who doesn’t bow down to their psychotic worldview.
You sound like stupid children chanting Na-na na-na-na. You’re too full of Foxian excreta to correctly perceive anything about anyone, or nature itself.
It is you who are proto-Nazis in the Weimar Republic. Goose step right over the cliff.
Inherit the wind.”
Scott: “Could you please post a link to such a claim?”
Scott, I’m not sure whether it was Steve or Anthony, to be honest, but I know that this claim was made on WUWT. I’ve been searching for it for a while. Will let everyone here lnow when I find it.
@IWB: Is this what you are referring to?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/09/bastardis-monday-sea-ice-report-plus-new-analysis-of-2010-ice-distribution/
After reading the above, here is something else to chew on regarding the Arctic:
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/RS_Arctic.htm
This one is rather lengthy, but makes the whole “death spiral” idea seem very far fetched indeed.
P.J. says:
July 4, 2011 at 2:46 am
@IWB: Is this what you are referring to?
It seems similar but the post I was thinking about makes reference to ice extent returning by 1979 levels and ice thickness returning previous levels in a few years.
@IWB: I don’t know about the 1979 one you are referring to … I don’t follow WUWT all that much. If that is the case, I would even find that to be a stretch. The one I posted had been ridiculded by a warmist on youtube and it stuck out in my mind. It was worth a try … I thought it would set the record straight. Much has been said about it on both sides lately with little accomplished.
If you find it, please post it here. I’ve heard that claim from several sites/comments of CAGWers. However, I’ve never seen the actual statement, including in my own reading of WUWT (but I didn’t follow the sea ice until last year). I’d be curious to know who/where the statement originated from (I still think it may have been Bastardi).
-Scott
“and creating alternative universes where psychotic ideologues can dwell.”
I thought that was your job………………
Here’s how you do it, Ill Wind Bowling:
“Based on my super secret non-denialist sciencetiffical nollij, I predict that the Arctic ice extent will be N.M x 10^6 km^2 (±2%) on or before Q.September,2011″
Then, when you prove correct (to within the original 2% margin), you can say, “Hey guys, this wasn’t a fluke, I know WTF I’m talking about, I’m not just some random hydrocephalic (that’s waterhead, IWB: waterhead) mashing buttons on his mom’s computer.”
As for everyone else, they don’t have to predict jack shit. Not jack. Not shit. You claim to be able to make a prediction, you make it. Everyone else claims you’re full of crap and you’re doing a mighty fine job of demonstrating that.
Let me reiterate in case you’re stupid or lazy: the onus is on the people who claim that the Arctic will be ice-free to prove they’re not just making crap up.
One more time: you’ve made the rather extraordinary claim, you provide the extraordinary evidence.
Again: without some kind of sign that you have a clue, we’re all free to assume you don’t have a clue.
Please pay attention: no-one else on Earth has to prove that you’re wrong, you have to prove that you’re right.
Just in case you missed that: the burden of proof rests with those who think they know when the Arctic will be ice-free.
Did I miss anything?
Oh yeah, I missed a
, sorryStark Dickflossing:
“One more time: you’ve made the rather extraordinary claim, you provide the extraordinary evidence.”
There’s nothing extraordinary in predicting that the Arctic is shrinking to oblivion; except to those who don’t want to believe it.
30 years of ice thickness charts will prove it. However, when proof of something is presented, it automatically becomes part of some nefarious Socialist scheme to depopulate the planet. Of course, if you need to use the exact same type of chart it’s OK(Like Steve recently did with an ice thickness chart that would otherwise be taboo).
“Did I miss anything?”
Yes; you missed the boat.
Yes, sure looks like scientific evidence to me. Okay boys, we’ve been totally outdone. IWB has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that “Derp derp du-hurrr”. Time to pack up and surf the Arctic while before we all melt in 2008.
P.J. says:
July 4, 2011 at 2:10 am
“@Scott: Here is IWB’s craziest rant ever:”
PJ. Why don’t you have the decency to include the comments made by the poster that I was responding to?
Nobama:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/06/26/arctic-is-screaming-a-message-to-us/#comment-66469
“You’ll need to visit MSNBC to find the continous coverage of Palin. They obsess over the hope she will pass gas so they can report she is definitely subhuman.”
“Stick around too long and you too will be a realist. Run now if you hope to preserve the fascist perspective.”
When posters spew nonsense about me being a Fascist, Marxist, Socialist, etc, there is no reason whatsoever for me to take them seriously. There have been even worse rants made on this site spewing the standard psychotic conspiracy theory nonsense that is so common in the skeptic community.
Anyone can get away with name calling without getting so much as a slap on the wrist. I take the first punch or two but I answer back when its obvious that the verbal bullying will continue. You should take a lesson from Skeptical Science where the mods will clamp down on anyone on either side who uses any pejorative term or begins to inject politics into the conversation.
I know that because I’ve seen both skeptics and AGWs snipped. On one occassion an AGW newbie posted a statement saying “But if they’re not deniers, what are they?” I responded to him jokingly by saying, “you better watch out, the mods will snip you”. I did not say anything else. or use the dastardly ‘D’ word.
We were both snipped.
Now there’s a science-tiffic opinion if I’ve ever heard one.
@IWB: “PJ. Why don’t you have the decency to include the comments made by the poster that I was responding to?”
1) Scott was only referring to you, and …
2) I didn’t remember Nobama’s comments … I had seen yours at the time and it stuck out in my mind as being bizzare. I must assume you were annoyed (or worse) at the time you wrote it?
3) By the way … the part where you say, ” When posters spew nonsense about me being a Fascist, Marxist, Socialist, etc,” does cut the other way as you previously have said things like, “you’re just parroting the standard Foxian/Beckian/Limbaughian/Tea Partying accusation about everyone who doesn’t bow down to their psychotic worldview”. That is not to justify the former, it is simply to point out that both sides (warmists and skeptics) can sling mud and make generalizations.