We have been hearing lots of rumours of record low ice in 2011, but alarmists long sought Arctic Armageddon is falling apart very rapidly. The green area (2011 ice not present in 2007) is expanding rapidly and the red area (2007 ice not present in 2011) is shrinking rapidly. Weather forecasts for the Arctic look cold for the indefinite future, so it is likely to just get worse. The ice edge hasn’t been moving for several days.
Heck, when have global warmers gotten anything right anyway?
Looks like that infamous Nunavut hot spot that caused last winter’s warmcold has finally cooled down. Guess we’ll have to wait until the latest GISS extrapolations to know for sure. That Chinese soot makes things sooo unpredictable.
Yes, the current average daily reduction is only about 50 000 compared to 2007 which was nearer to 100 000 so it will soon start lagging behind badly at this rate. Date on when it passes 6 million is now out to about the 11th, 2007 was the 5th, so it will have dropped at least a week because it was in front at the start of July.
Having said that, the 11th is still the 2nd earliest time for 6 million on the short record. As 2007 has always been touted by denialists as an exceptional year which was mainly wind driven perhaps 2011 should be compared to the average and not this one exceptional year ? 😉
Andy
ZZZZzzzz….
“ZZZZzzzz….”
Yes, that describes Skeptical ‘science’ perfectly.
Whether 2007 was exceptional or not, the simple fact is that it left a lot less multi year ice behind. This clearly has had an effect on subsequent years.
2011 is trailing along with 2007. If 2011 had the higher than average winds and sunlight of 2007, we would have an even lower extent than 2007.
If an asteroid hits the planet, it will make a big mess.
Non-sequitur.
“Non-sequitir”
Not if it hits the North Pole.
The weather progs appear to be showing pools of cold air rotating around the Arctic with no indication of strong south winds to warm things up, so I agree with Steve’s analysis. The final minimum figure should be not that far from the average of the last ten years.
I wouldn’t go as far as not far from the average of the last 10 years, that is roughly 5.3/5.4 or so, but it won’t be as low as 2007 . I’m still thinking 4.6-4.8
Andy
4419655 km^2 for the JAXA daily minimum.
Because everyone seems to be using the NSIDC monthly minimum this year, I’ll start reporting that too. The conversion gives 4.46 million km^2 for the monthly NSIDC. Interestingly, that’s lower than both you and Tamino.
I had switched to just using recent CT area data instead of the whole set. Changing to the whole set changes my prediction to 4576655 km^2 for the daily JAXA and 4.64 million km^2 for the monthly NSIDC…both very much in line with you and Tamino.
-Scott
Anyone remember this gem? I’m going to go out on an extreme limb and predict the Arctic will indeed NOT be ice-free in 2013….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Wednesday, 12 December 2007
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
Scott, I am still using Jaxa for monthly minimums.
Andy
Tough times indeed!
Rising Global Temperatures? Er no – they’ve been rather unspectacularly flat for about 10 years.
Rising Sea Levels? The hitherto gradual rise seems to have slowed-down (or stopped altogether – depending on which satellite you look at)
Antarctic Sea Ice – bang on average.
So it was all up to the arctic sea ice sea-ice situation – which up until recently seemed to give alarmists hope of something alarmingly spectacular to point-to. Every 100,000 sq km of ice loss was met with a cheer. (Polar bears? – who cares! We WANT it to melt!)
Now we learn that your Mr. Gore has organised a dog-and-pony show in DC for late Sept – timed no-doubt to coincide with the sea-ice minimum as “Exhibit A”.
So we can probably expect yet another manifestation of the “Gore-effect” to kick-in some time soon!