Yet another sign of extreme weather – an extreme shortage of hurricanes.
Ryan N. Maue
Center for Ocean and Atmosphere Studies, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USATropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large-scale climate mechanisms including the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one-third of the overall calendar year global ACE.
“…global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s.”
Yeah, sure. But you know, the Earth only represents, what, 0.42% of the solar system’s planetary surface area, so this is blatant cherry-picking once again…
And besides, CACC aficionados are quick to point out that K. Emanuel’s PDI is ‘better’ than ACE as a measure of cyclone energy. Since PDI varies with cube of wind speed, versus the square of wind speed for ACE, it is obvious that the PDI data will show an even, ah, bigger, er, ah, recent drop in cyclone, ahh, energy than ACE does.
Oh, never mind.
Chris y:
A correction, you used CACC and that has been revised to Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Anomalies, Ergo CACA! 8)
Grumpy Grampy-
Oh oh. I’ve been using:
CACC = Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change
CACA = Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alarmist
IPECAC = Intergovernmental Panel on Environmental Change And Climate
Climo-coprophagia = A desire to unquestioningly consume CACC news
We’ll need to standardize on acronyms to avoid confusion.
🙂
You guys make a good Abbot and Costello duo! LOL
ROTFLMAO!
For those who say this paper does not take long enough time periods in to account to be statistically significant; if you have to use statistics to prove your results you are not doing science but statistics. This shows the existence of natural variability and that we do not have enough accurate data to determine if there is a long term trend. North Atlantic storm activity is not global so watching the “Season” is about like watching the Ice concentration in the Arctic which is an even smaller region.
How come our “weather weirding” friends never come by to question this?
What about the number of cyclones missed before satellites went up? I think the drop in climate weirding is even more than stated
I’m certain that it is, too, but how do you quantify numbers that are seen today but not then?
This paper pretty much proves that satellites are picking up many more “shorties”, storms that last 2 days or less. Their conclusion is the same as Maurizio’s.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JD015493.shtml
Think also few places have had such a good observational record as the North Atlantic. The decrease in tropical cyclones must be truly staggering.