Every year, Hansen forecasts a super El Nino – in hopes of getting temperatures up to his zero emissions scenario C.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_aug2012/ensodisc.pdf
Temperatures have dropped below normal along most of the east Pacific equator. El Nino is dead.
RIP
Poor track record for someone who tells whoever will listen that he’s 99% certain of his science.
dang…i was looking forward to a warm winter that an El Nino brings…
Some sceptics talked about El Nino staying for a while too. All they had to do was look at the graphs for themselves and they would have seen red fading and blue growing. And blue grew a lot recently:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_mon.gif
Hansen’s climate dice are coming up snake eyes on his Super El Nino predictions.
copped close to a full hour of warming aussie oceans killing the reef etc etc again this arvo…
you would think someone in the ABC media could look up some charts sometime?
You look at the worldwide ocean water temperatures and wonder how this global warming rumor ever got started. Time to put it to rest!
It doesn’t include graphs, that’s why. Oh, unless it’s from a hypothetical computer print out. The it’s holy writ.
Damn – La-Nina conditions generally mean more rain and cool, cloudy summer here in SE Queensland – three in a row is becoming depressing – although 2009/2010 really saw the end of the almost decade long almost drought so maybe you could call it 4 in a row if it happens again.
Our experts warned of a hot dry summer – reminds me of 1973 when a renowned long range forecaster got it horribly wrong with a similar prediction some months before the January 1974 Brisbane floods – buy your lawn sprinklers now folks.
Gotta feel sorry for him though because he finally got it right and wanted them to pull the ad campaign but they refused.
Should be interesting now that the developing EL-Nino appears to have died.
We’re a long way from La Nina yet. But if there has been a cyclical change – as some forecasters believe – then Australia could be in for above average rainfall for a few decades.
Yes, David Jones is still predicting a super el nino, but now its next year! privately, he already has declared this year as a non starter. But he wont say that publicly, or the Gillard government would not be impressed!
I think people need to realize what the Cold PDO does…i have been trying to educate people on my blog and forum for a while but i still read daily how the warming subsurface means imminent explosion of warmth. Laughable, if you want to see something interesting check out the latest kelvin wave plot, and see if you can put two and two together and see if we are going to have a Super Nino or Super La nina.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_new/pent_temp_godas_eq_xz.gif