NASA’s 2006 solar forecast
Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one.
Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle – NASA Science
NASA’s 2013 solar forecast.
Solar Cycle Prediction
(Updated 2013/02/01)
The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906
The image below overlays their current forecast on their 2006 forecast.
These numbers are critical for forecasting climate, and NASA has absolutely no ability to forecast them.
Just give it a few years and Hansen adjustments and their predictions will look very skillful indeed.
It is imaginary settled science
The difference is that Hathaway never tries to hide his erroneous forecasts and make adjustments to paper over them.He has several times make a new forcast that downgrades it and post it.That is why I still can respect him despite his failures.
Maybe it would help if they just went back and adjusted older cycles downward, and made up some crap about aerosols and TOBS.
Gator,
When did you get your advanced degree in Climate Science?
When I ate a box of Cracker Jacks last night! 😉
Glacierman, Gator just plays one on TV .. 🙂
I thought they actually used to give out Doctorits in Climate Science with the purchase of a tie-dyed tee shirt at all Greatful Dead concerts. Probably far fewer being handed out now that you have to buy a box of Cracker Jacks.
The only thing to explain the disappearance of a hallucination is another one.
“Denial” is not an option
Reblogged this on Gds44's Blog.
“Scientists Predict…..”
this phrase is fast becoming the common precursor of rubbish science, political lies and deceit.
It’s a shame that science is hijacked in this way.
“Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient.”
Nature vs Atmospheric physicists : 1-0
How about double or nothing Hathaway?
I don’t think Hathaway predicts anymore. He got it wrong and now he admits he just curve fits. So you can’t really be hard on him. He is not pretending that his past predictions had ‘skill’.
These numbers are critical for forecasting climate, and NASA has absolutely no ability to forecast them.
I thought Gavin and Co denied that the sun has any influence on climate. The control knob is CO2 (according to them).