Suppose that there 25,000 places on earth, and each one keeps records for four things – hottest temperature, coldest temperature, most rain and most snow.
That is a total of 100,000 all-time records. Now let’s say that the average length of time for the record keeping has been 100 years, so the odds of any individual record being broken this year are 100:1.
So multiplying 100,000 records by the odds (1/100) we would expect 1,000 all time records to be broken this year, or three per day.
This gives Bill McKibben three things to get hysterical about every day – even in a completely stable climate.
But these are for all-time station records. For daily station records (ex. hottest July 7 in St. Louis) the number is 1,000 new records per day!
But wouldn’t that mean McKibben is hysterical almost all the time ….. oh ….. never mind.
Yes, I’ve tried to point out the statistical facts about “daily temperature records” to many people. We should be most surprised by a week without a record of some sort being broken. And you are very generous to assume the average number of years is 100. It’s probably more like 30, or less.
These numbers are for all-time records. Daily records we would expect 1,000 per day or 3,000 per day if the record length was shorter.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/01/05/1394711/2012-saw-362-all-time-record-high-temperatures-in-us-but-zero-all-time-record-lows/
362 all-time record highs
0 all-time record lows
why is there not about an equal number of each?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
We’re screwed. Methane reaches 2571 ppb.
I pray this isn’t going to be as bad as it’s looking.
In the case of the above “think progress” activist site, double check if they are comparing raw data or adjusted data. (Hint: you may find that the blogger is comparing adjusted temperature data, not actual thermometer measurements.) The final observation is that to show a scary scenario you have to cherry pick one year in one place on the planet that makes up about 11% of the surface area of the globe. The thing about climate is that it’s relatively stable from year to year, globally. So if it’s really hot in one place, it’ll be colder elsewhere. It’s pretty easy to show records for a hotspot if you’re free to jump randomly from hotspot to hotspot each year, ignoring the cold spots.
My suggestion would be less prayer, more study.
I am guessing that you are severely mentally ill.
Bedwetter alert.
For all we know, this human input (if any) is preventing a catastrophic Ice Age, by far a worse disaster for humanity. We can’t be sure that the cure isn’t worse than the “disease”.