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He is really praying for an upswing in the PDO. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation turned cool in 2000 and therefore should go warm some time around 2030 or so.
Gavin and other scientists on the federal payroll deserve our compassion.
It is not unusual talents that lead to prostitution.
See: The Great Social Experiment
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Social_Experiment.pdf
The game is over! But both players lost.
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/01/19/my-climate-forecast-3/#comment-483324
At a height 27 km is very noticeable shift of the polar vortex. Arctic air will continue to attack the US.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-100.17,82.25,344
ren
I remember a time when we used to call it “winter” and it was what it was without the characterization of an “attack” or “assault” or any such thing. It was a time when adults expected the worst and hoped for the best and children always hoped for the worst. But someone was always thankful no matter how it turned out.
Kids would be thankful for the “snow days” when they got off school because of the weather and being able to play in the snow even if their parents weren’t at times. But even many of us sappier grown ups were/are happy when we had/have a white Christmas. But all in all, having a warmer than normal winter was perceived by most adults as a good thing.
I pity those that never had some of those experiences as a child. Never made snow forts and lined up in opposing armies, each side using it’s fort as a base and had massive snow ball fights. Or never tunneled in the snow drift making all kinds of rooms and chambers and then trudged off to the best hill around to sled.
Then coming home with cold and toes and fingers stinging as they warmed and Mom who dutifully had a big pot of hot cocoa on the stove and helped us strip out of our snow laden outer garments. How good that all felt; the warmth, the relaxed state of exhaustion, and feeling of security and being just as happy to be warm as one was excited when they left to go play in the snow.
Time will tell.
Today was very pleasant sw BC.
I’m hoping for an early warm spring.
Yes indeed, you keep sending that wonderful Chinook over the mountains and keeps us here in SW Alberta warm!
Yes, and in Northern Alberta also. Going to 6C or 7C above the next few days……..
“A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.” – Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat (1915-2002)
He says the pause is caused by increased volcano activity and decreased solar output.
1. I don’t have a time chart of volcanic activity, but I assume he is lying.
2. Here is a time chart of solar output. He’s lying.
http://www.hyzercreek.com/sun.jpg
+1
He is paid by the government (and the American Taxpayer) to lie.
1. I don’t have a time chart of volcanic activity, but I assume he is lying.
================================
You assume correctly :
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/annual-logmean-of-recent-eruptions.jpg?w=720
In short whether it was Solar irradiance, volcanoes, or oceans absorbing the heat Schmidt just admitted that CO2 is not the climate driver they Modeled it to be. After 19 years of warming we are going to have 30 years of cooling. After 50 plus excuses for the pause shouldn’t they admit they don’t actually have a clue.
…”After 50 plus excuses for the pause shouldn’t they admit they don’t actually have a clue”
————————————————————————————–
Sounds like 50 reasons that CO2 is not the driver of climate, Climate Scientist are a strange group, they can only think of one reason the world warms, but 50 reasons it does not.
The Minnesota boys should do song on the 50 ways to leave CO2, sung of course to the tune of “fifty ways to leave your lover,”
As much as I like Paul Simon, I think 50 ways to say goodbye offers slightly better parodic material, especially with the cheesy music video for it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSBFehvLJDc
Controller is to change the position of the Earth’s axis relative to the sun. It depends on the motion of the Sun relative to the center of mass of the solar system.
Kontroller also magnetic activity of the sun, which controls the length of the day and the chemical changes in the stratosphere. Low solar activity has an effect on the increase in seismic activity.
The Weather Network here in Canada had him on telling his lies.
Gotta get Obama’s thermageddon scare as far as possible.
I am quite impressed that they managed to measure solar irradiance so precisely several centuries ago. Wonder how it was done?
Unlike Gavin’s “Pause”, Tim Flannery’s “drought pause” will end some time in the future, when Australia does finally have an El Nino drought once again. This year is looking very normal. Its been 30 years since we had a severe El Nino.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=totals&period=cyear&area=nat
Like Hansen, he will be retired before his prognostication comes due. BS.
Yes. I was going to say: …by which time our Gavin will have retired and be living of a nice pension. Thank you very much.
I say the pause in his lying which I didn’t predict and which doesn’t exist, my continue till tomorrow morning.
… may continue …
May continue FOREVER…because he is now a weather god! 🙂
Given his general failure to understand the natural forces he attributes the failure to warm to, why should anyone believe he understands the effects of CO2? The implication is that complex physics operating in the complex environment of the Earth is too much for Gavin Schmidt and his fellow government bureaucrats to understand. Although some of the quiet weapons radiation physicists who work for the Navy and Army do manage to understand that the physics claimed to be behind significant global warming due to CO2 is bogus, though they fear for their careers if they speak up.
He understands well enough. If there is a 60 year period, the minimum will be in 2020 and the adjusting will end the pause early. Nothing to do with volcanoes and he knows it.
And he bases this prediction on what? That natural cooling will be “overwhelmed” by the very same human CO2 that has done en absoluto nada for the last human generation? The very same CO2 whose bands he agrees are 50% saturated and which he knows perfectly well faces an approximately logarithmic diminution in effect with increased concentration?
Brown nosing, plain and simple.
Which volcanoes? LOL
Nothing big has erupted really, why did it cool in the 1970s? Volcanoes? There were only 2 big eruptions in the 1900s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo Was 1991
http://carbon-budget.geologist-1011.net/ Volcanoes don’t make CO2 either according to the “Experts” who checked a few LOL
What a crock of bovine feces
Article has a lot more information
Regretfully federal employees, university professors and almost everyone else have been under pressure to support the “Great Social Experiment” that began on 24 OCT 1945 and quietly ended this month when the United Nations, leaders of nations, and armies of government-funded consensus scientists were unable or unwilling to reply to nine pages of precise experimental data [1] that falsify the UN’s Agenda 21-driven [2] Standard Solar Model, Standard Nuclear Model, Big Bang Cosmology and Standard Climate Models. The data [1] confirm many ancient teachings but regretfully the great social experiment continued until world-wide violation of the scientific method to fit UN’s Agenda 21 [2] was exposed [1].
I plan to post a one-page summary on “Great Social Experiment” later today.
References
1. “Solar energy,” Advances in Astronomy (submitted for on-line review, 6 JAN 2015): https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy_For_Review.pdf
2. “United Nations Agenda 21” (1972): http://habitat.igc.org/agenda21/index.htm
The scientific method was altered to fit the Science & Technology Agenda in Chapter 31.
Correction:
2. “United Nations Agenda 21” (1972): http://habitat.igc.org/agenda21/index.htm
The scientific method was altered to fit the Science & Technology Agenda in Chapters 31/35.
2. “United Nations Agenda 21” (1972): http://habitat.igc.org/agenda21/index.htm
The scientific method was altered to fit the Science & Technology Agenda in many Chapters.
The electric force in its dynamic role from microcosm to macrocosm.
http://youtu.be/WoNaVb7b-tg
Lets say the pause continues for another ten years and each consecutive year is “the hottest year evah!” Oxymoron? Just say’in but I think Gavin just stepped on his dick.
That wasn’t his dick, it was MM’s.
Hockey stick happens to be rhyming slang for it.
Direct sea level measurements are often ambiguous, are prone to bias and do not, in themselves, cater for the effects of tectonics and isostatic rebound from melted ice caps.
So, if the raw data does not give what one wants, make a guestimate of contributions from melted ice and add that in to give the result that one wants.
Scientific methodology out of the window yet again.
Sea level is another area where the ClimAstrologists KNOWINGLY LIE.
What is mind boggling is the Climastrologists with degrees in Geology, Hydrology and Earth Science completely ignore the fact that the Modern Warm Period is colder than other periods during the Holocene, that glaciers are growing and the sea level is dropping. Instead they cherry pick a short term change in the weather and call it ‘CLIMATE’!
Mid to late Holocene sea-level reconstruction of Southeast Vietnam using beachrock and beach-ridge deposits
Translation the sea level was up to 1.5 meters higher than today in a tectonically stable area ~5000 years ago to 2000 years ago.
Sea-level highstand recorded in Holocene shoreline deposits on Oahu, Hawaii
This study shows a sea level highstand ~1.6 meter above the present level from ~5500 years ago to 2000 years ago.
Verification by another method:
Sea Level Changes Past Records and Future Expectations
There are also studies showing the temperatures were higher and the glaciers smaller verifying the above sea level data,
A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier January 2012
Kristian Vasskoga Øyvind Paaschec, Atle Nesjea, John F. Boyled, H.J.B. Birks
Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic
Miller et al
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, USA et al
Ice free Arctic Ocean, an Early Holocene analogue
Through all of recorded history, by which I mean since 1979, Warmists’ predictions (which usually they eventually deny were actually predictions) have been forecasts of events certain to happen many years, or even decades, in the future; by the time that future becomes the present, or even the past, all the ace reporters and crack pundits in mainstream media have (1) forgotten about them and (2) forgotten how to use that… whatsitcalled?… Google thingamajig. Odd how that works out, eh?
Its a bit like he thinks volcano,s and the sun are going away , as far as I am aware they have been doing there thing for ever.
No ‘sanity checks’ in this procedure or process (e.g. design rules, cross validation checks etc.) of Gavin’s; open-loop behavior and ‘processes’ at their finest …
Brilliant, how one can make the only relevant climate driver (cf. Concensus science) subordinate to natural variability without blinking and keep looking like an expert. And keep laughing all the way to the bank.
Silence! Climate criminals at work.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/19/bigger-problems-than-global-warming-nasa-discovers-8-new-dangerous-near-earth-asteroids/
NASA spends like $10million on this and $20billion on global warming that only exists on their computer screens and not in real life
Hey Gavin, dude….
Are you sure you don’t want to push that out a bit further……. say 50-60 years?
There might just be some real warming again by then, if we are lucky !!
I wonder if Gavin told those journalists to finish their coffee first !
Keyboards don’t grow in tree, y’know !!
NSIDC says that NASA satellites show the Arctic heating and melting out of control and absorbing an additional 20 Watts per Square Metre (on average). At solar radiation of 1360 Watts per Square Metre, I calculate that means that the Arctic is absorbing <2% of the suns energy that it is exposed to. And it doesn't re-radiate it away in the 6 months of sunless winter?
Exactly what planet are the guys from NSIDC on? As Spock said – "Its just not logical".
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/arctic-absorbing-more-of-the-s/40250920
End the pause in Global Warming.
http://www.math.ucr.edu/home/baez/temperature/65Myr.png
It’s a great skill y’know: Lying throught your teeth without cracking a smile. Must be a british thing.
Gavin is a smart, slick spinmeister. He is most certainly pinning hopes on changes in the ocean oscillations, an area he has researched.
Blurbs From Wiki (rearranged a bit )
Anyone following the climate debates knows the climate models flunked big time in the IPCC fifth Assessment Draft.
January 9, 2014 The IPCC discards its models by Anthony Watts
A wee bit late, Gavin, KNOWING the IPCC models flunk the match to reality test does damage control:
New York Times Article May 22, 2014 4:27 pm Gavin Schmidt on Why Climate Models are Wrong, and Valuable By Andrew C. Revkin
My goodness the guy is a real slimeball and so is Revkin.
Indeed, I had not seen this…Models are not right or wrong; they’re always wrong. They’re always approximations. The question you have to ask is whether a model tells you more information than you would have had otherwise. If it does, it’s skillful…”
===========================================================
So the models skillfully inform us that they, in their consistently wrong overestimation of warming, demonstrate that CO2 is not the driver of climate they thought it was.
“Skillful”, what an arse. Climate scientist, refusing to be informed by their ignorance.
Lying bastard. Only a few days ago, he was saying that there was no pause and 2014 was the hottest year ever.
They’re all over the place. Deliberately use pejorative ‘hottest’ year to secure screaming headlines, followed by deafening silence once caught out. No apology or explanation issued. 🙁
So Gavin has decided upon terrestrial phrenology as the cause for the pause. I wonder if that excuse will last the 10 years as well.
Translation of Gavin’s statement:
“We have run out the clock on the last set of near term crisis announcements needed to instill an emotional component to our climate based political propaganda. The recent run has worked fine, we’ve made a lot of money and convinced millions of children of the man-made climate crisis connection. But, as it were, the actual climate has not cooperated. The actual climate data is showing our models to be bogus and we haven’t had enough big storms to maintain the level of fear we need for mass political support. So, we have to adjust our message–move the goal posts a bit. I’m thinking 10 years should work. Long enough to get that big hurricane we have all been waiting for to catalyze our message. Frankly, we just need to hold on for a couple more years to give Obama the climate science cover he needs for the policy mandates to step toward more government control. Besides, I’m looking to retire in 8 years.”
NASA GIS is now predicting future volcanic activity!!!! LOL!
They are also predicting future solar activity!!! LOL!!!!!
Actually, solar astronomers like my father have begun to predict that sun spot activity will now decline into a new Maunder minimum. This means another Little Ice Age.
The link “Pause over within 10 years says NASA’s Schmidt” goes to some old archive site and I couldn’t find any reference to the story