Arctic Doom Deepens

Posted on July 18, 2015 by Tony Heller

If this forecast is correct, the Arctic melt season is about to come to a crashing halt.

ScreenHunter_9943 Jul. 18 18.35

10-Day Temperature Outlook

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17 Responses to Arctic Doom Deepens

  1. omanuel says:
    July 18, 2015 at 10:50 pm

    The UN’s “Ministry of Consensus Science (UN)Truths” is having trouble hiding Earth’s heat source:

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy.pdf

    http://omatumr.com/Photographs/Suns_core.htm

    Reply
  2. Stewart Pid says:
    July 19, 2015 at 5:51 am

    This forecast will get a certain alarmist troll’s panties in a knot 😉

    Reply
  3. AndyG55 says:
    July 19, 2015 at 6:16 am

    Arctic ice currently tracking 2009 pretty closely.

    https://sunshinehours.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/arctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2015_day_195_1981-2010.png

    2009 bottomed out around 6M km², iirc

    Reply
  4. Jussi says:
    July 19, 2015 at 7:16 am

    The ice in quite thin compared to year 2012
    http://s21.postimg.org/vstkckb9z/Arctic.gif
    The remaining ice on Hudson and Baffin will soon melt away. Then the extents will be about equal.

    Reply
  5. Marsh says:
    July 19, 2015 at 7:31 am

    This is no surprise! The Winters are getting longer & Summers are shorter… that’s reality!

    Reply
  6. Caleb says:
    July 19, 2015 at 8:01 am

    Because a lot of the chill is occurring south of 80° latitude, it won’t show up on the DMI temperature-north-if-80° graph. However the chill towards the Pacific side has been going on for some time.

    https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2015/07/12/arctic-sea-ice-breaking-up-is-hard-to-do/

    As usual, the arctic is forcing me to be humble, by making my personal expectations incorrect. I thought the warm spike in the PDO would melt the ice on the Pacific side far more than we’ve seen. It is melting on the underside, but not as fast as usual, and up at the North Pole it doesn’t seem to be melting on the underside at all, yet.

    Perhaps the so-called “blob” of warm water in the Pacific isn’t influencing the arctic as much, as it has shifted east to the Pacific coast of Canada. I did notice the surface waters south of Bering Strait were colder than normal, which would make for water cooler than last year entering the arctic.

    If the cool air predicted above can generate some summer snow it may lead to an up-tick on some extent-graphs. The microwave radar from satellites has troubles at times, seeing melt-water pools as open water, and a dust of snow on a brief skim of ice on melt-water makes “open water” turn back to “solid ice,” in the satellite’s eyes.

    In any case, in the world where you sit around watching ice melt, this news about the cold air in Beaufort Sea is wildly exciting. I’m not sure I can take it.

    Reply
    • bit chilly says:
      July 19, 2015 at 11:30 pm

      “In any case, in the world where you sit around watching ice melt, this news about the cold air in Beaufort Sea is wildly exciting. I’m not sure I can take it.” :). i love your sense of humour caleb !
      will be interesting to see what happens with baffin and hudson bay . if they do not melt out completely it would lead to multi year ice being present in both regions next year. not something i would have associated with a death spiral.

      the ice all over the arctic does not appear to have the snow cover of last year, but as you say,the latest forecast may change that in the next week or so.

      Reply
      • Caleb says:
        July 20, 2015 at 12:06 am

        The old reports of the Hudson Bay company do mention some years when they could not be resupplied, as the ice never allowed the ship from England to arrive. Just imagine what a drag that must have been for the guys serving at that forlorn outpost, especially the ones planning to go home!

        Reply
  7. emsnews says:
    July 19, 2015 at 2:37 pm

    Why is this news that the Ice Age grip is growing, ‘exciting’ unless you want to spend some time cutting and chopping more firewood on my mountain?

    This means a struggle to survive for me and lots and lots of other people.

    Reply
  8. Chic Bowdrie says:
    July 20, 2015 at 1:14 am

    Here’s a link predicting a different outcome.
    http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2015/07/hello-dipole-my-old-friend.html
    Can anyone interpret this temperature vs. pressure dual for me?

    Reply
    • Dmh says:
      July 20, 2015 at 7:37 am

      Different PDO, AMO and solar radiations patterns this year will probably avert the big ice loss in the Arctic at the end of the summer, as happened in 2012 (and 2007), despite similar SLP patterns.
      We need to see if the relatively stable extent of the 2nd half of July and 1st week of August, of 2013 and 2014, will repeat this year.
      Looks like it will, but it’s still not very well defined.
      If it happens, the minimum extent this year will be similar to the last 2 years, possibly a little larger (I hope!).
      The next 2 weeks are crucial for the estimate of the minimum extent, IMO.

      Reply
    • Dmh says:
      July 20, 2015 at 7:45 am

      Here is a good estimate, based on DMI analysis for concentration higher than 30%
      https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/07/19/arctic-sea-ice-continues-to-track-2006-8/

      Reply

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