End Of June Ice Forecast

My forecast for the end of June is that 2018 Arctic sea ice volume will be in fourth place behind 2004, 2003 and 2014.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

37 Responses to End Of June Ice Forecast

  1. MrZ says:

    Provided DMI does not change their algorithms I’ll eat my hat if 2018 ends up lower than 2014 come September.

    • Steven Fraser says:

      2014 was an unusual year. It was quite higher than average from now until the end of summer, and had a late low, which put it right back at the 2004-2013 average.

  2. angech says:

    Arctic sea ice forum not one of your favourites has a
    Latest PIOMAS update (June mid-monthly update )
    Started by Wipneus « 1 2 3 … 48 »
    He has been giving mid month updates of PIOMASS .
    PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated, last day 15 June. Volume calculated from thickness is now 5th place behind 2017, 2016, 2012 and 2011.
    I hope you are right but here may be some other years in between?

  3. Steven Fraser says:

    Tony, that looks like a solid prediction, based on the 2003, 2004 and 2014 numbers. By that time, the current #3 will be an also-ran.

  4. Griff says:

    And?

    That means it would be lower than in 36 of the last 40 years …

    what does that show? or tell us about arctic trends?

  5. The Other Brad says:

    It’s happening again. Not on topic but didn’t know where to post.

    https://northwestpassageproject.org/the-expedition/

    • AndyG55 says:

      Why doesn’t their route take them through next to Banks Island like Larsen did in 1944, in a small, low powered wooden boat with some sails?

      They are using an “ice-class” icebreaker, but you can bet the Arctic sea-ice bedwetters will try to make a big thing of it.

    • Disillusioned says:

      What blatant propaganda! Of note, that fake image is of an ice-free passage.
      If they can break through the ice in August, that should make excellent fake news for the AGW Koolaid drinkers. The message will be about man-made melting – not that they plowed through ice.

      • Griff says:

        I take it you haven’t actually looked at this year’s ice conditions in the passage…

        • AndyG55 says:

          MASIE says Canadian Archipelago is above:
          2006, 207, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2104, 2015, 2016, 2017

          Have you stopped taking your bed-wetting pills ?

        • AndyG55 says:

          Baffin Bay is above every other year back to 2006 apart from 2014

          Beaufort Sea is above every other year apart from2007 and 2013

          I take it you haven’t actually look at the ice condition in the passage and leading up to the passage

          Just mindless anti-fact bed-wetting, as ALWAYS.

        • Disillusioned says:

          “I take it you haven’t actually looked at this year’s ice conditions in the passage…”

          I take it you never tire from constantly being wrong.

  6. Dave J. says:

    Terak: From your data source:

    “The synthesis procedure includes interpolation to a uniform grid and an analog‐based estimation of ice concentrations in areas of no data.”

    Interpretation: We completely made up the data to fit our desired conclusion that the world is melting and mindless idiots will believe us.

  7. Andy says:

    Measured by who? DMI?

    Their thickness graph, which by default shows extent is lagging way behind

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

    At this rate we will only know the summer volume value in November……..

    Andy

    • hate to be a grammar nazi but, . . . by whom? Dammit, get it right!

      • Disillusioned says:

        “hate to be a grammar nazi but, . . . by whom? ”

        The irony is, grammar Nazis usually make mistakes when correcting others. Patrick, you’re no exception. ;-P

        • I was kidding in making the correction; but, now that you mention it, whom is correct because the sentence is an abbreviation for the complete thought as in: “The ice was measured by whom.” The ice is the subject of the sentence and it’s not doing anything. So, whom is correct; however, it’s sounds fussy so stick with who if you want.

          • Disillusioned says:

            Patrick,

            Oh, I agree with you and I never did disagree with your assertion. Of course ‘whom’ is correct.

            Look a little further, Patrick, at the sentence you constructed while chastising your fellow poster. Would your first “grammar Nazi” – your grade school teacher of English – give you a pass for writing a sentence like that? I see at least three blunders.

            And I don’t for a minute believe you were kidding. Ribbing him, maybe (same as I’m doing with you), but not kidding. ;-P

          • Disillusioned, since you persist, . . . nothing was unintended and thus there are no “blunders”.

    • AndyG55 says:

      DMI data is up to 21st June.

      remain ignorant , little andy.

      your only redeeming feature.

    • Griff says:

      Yes – it is showing ice in places where I have seen satellite photos showing completely open water…

      • AndyG55 says:

        griff is WRONG again

        Doesn’t comprehend that these very thin ice areas make no difference to volume

        griff is DUMB !!

  8. Steven Fraser says:

    DMI Ice volume result for Jun 22:

    2018 continues to narrow the gap with 2005. By my estimate, the report on the 25th (the result for the 24th) will be the first to show 2018 above 2005.

    The more curious question is whether 2014 will supersede 2018 on or before that date. Day-by-day the relative decline varies between these two years. For the last several days the gap has varied (both up and down) between 40 and 90cu km based on the day’s particular values.

    Some milestones coming up this summer, for reference:
    – July 06, 2014 crosses above 2003, and stays there until Sep 10.
    – August 16, 2014, approaches 2004 to a diff of 1 cukm, the day of the 2004 low, never crossing above it during the latter point of melt season.
    — The 2014 low day is Sep 10.

    2003 and 2004 have strong recoveries, and 2014 lags behind.

    Waiting and watching to see how 2018 does by comparison.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *