Fighting Fake Statistics With Software

Someone left this comment on my blog.

November 10, 2019 at 5:32 am

Atlanta is about to break the record for most 90-degree days in one year | The Georgia Sun

It took me about two minutes to generate these graphs, showing the claims are meaningless. Georgia’s hottest January-October came in 1954.  This year wasn’t in the top ten.

The percent of hot days in Georgia peaked in 1925 has been declining for over a century.

Georgia’s record for 90 degree days came in 1927.

Georgia’s record for consecutive 90 degree days came in 1954, which was also their hottest year.

Mother Nature simply refuses to cooperate with the alarmists. A lot of cold weather headed to Georgia.

Atlanta, GA 10-Day Weather Forecast | Weather Underground

Georgia’s hottest November occurred in 1909, when Quitman had nine days over 90 degrees, and no days which failed to reach 70 degrees. The average maximum temperature was 84 degrees that month.

Compare vs. the cold this year.

Quitman, GA 10-Day Weather Forecast | Weather Underground

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14 Responses to Fighting Fake Statistics With Software

  1. Robertv says:

    ‘This breaks records that go back to at least 1930.’

    So an AOC from the thirties would have given Earth 12 years. We must all be zombies then.

    • There was an AOC from the 1930s. Her name was Lolita Lebrón. She and 2 Puerto Rican comrades walked into Congress and emptied three pistols into the place. Tragically, only one politician was slightly winged. A similar display of poor marksmanship caused one casualty among the White House police but left one wannabee assassin dead and the other wishing he’d gotten a different job. Lolita wasn’t on about global warming but was more vociferous about evil capitalism than Ver. 2.0

  2. Gator says:

    Accu(not)weather…

    In April 2012, AccuWeather drastically shortened the range of their publicly available historical data from 15 years to 1 year. They also began increasing the range of their forecast from 15 days to 25 days, 45 days, and, by 2016, to 90 days. These hyper-extended forecasts have been compared to actual results several times and shown to be misleading, inaccurate and sometimes worse than simple predictions based on National Weather Service averages over a 30-year period. It is generally accepted that the upper limit on how far one can reliably forecast is between one and two weeks, a limit based on both limits in observation systems and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. An informal assessment conducted by Jason Samenow at The Washington Post asserted that AccuWeather’s forecasts at the 25-day range were often wrong by as many as ten degrees, no better than random chance and that the forecasts missed half of the fourteen days of rain that had occurred during the month of the assessment.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AccuWeather

    • Mary I says:

      All summer I tracked AccuWeather’s daily forecast high temperature along with my own H/L thermometer reading as well as what AccuWeather said was the temperature for our town on the following day. AccuWeather consistently predicted a high for the day 10 – 15 degrees higher than what my thermometer read and what they stated was the actual temperature the following day.

      For example, on August 16, Accuweather predicted a high for our town of 108. My H/L thermometer said it got to 98, and the next day, Accuweather said yesterday’s high had been 98. This happened every single day for the whole summer.

  3. Richard says:

    Tony – Great work and I love that it is so easy for you to debunk the nonsense.

    What database and what software(s) do you use to pull and present your data?

  4. A C Osborn says:

    How about we talk about Cold records in the USA?
    https://www.iceagenow.info/look-at-all-of-the-record-lows-in-october/
    https://www.iceagenow.info/look-at-all-the-record-lows-in-november/

    You won’t see any mention of that in the MSM.

  5. John F. Hultquist says:

    Central Washington State is in the warm sector.
    Surprise at how warm it stayed last night.

    My wife was from Georgia. It is a great place to be from.

    For Bill, the comment person:
    Earth has only 11 years and 7 months left. Wise use of those 4,170 days
    would not include conversing about weather with folks in Atlanta.
    Prepare your bunker. Buy survival gear, food, and the 100 books
    you should have read by now, but haven’t.

  6. Windsong says:

    Atlanta, poster child for the immense urban/suburban sprawl that encompasses the Metro area of many southern cities. Ryan Maue (an Atlanta-area resident) tweeted a few weeks ago about the huge disparity of UHI juiced temps recorded at the ATL airport versus sites a few miles away. And the ~2,500 daily aircraft operations probably helped just a little bit.

  7. Phil. says:

    Atlanta is about to break the record for most 90-degree days in one year | The Georgia Sun

    It took me about two minutes to generate these graphs, showing the claims are meaningless.

    But actually you made no attempt to rebut that claim, you produced data on many other matters but didn’t produce the data on the number of 90-degree days in Atlanta!
    The newspaper claimed in September:
    “Atlanta could set a record for most 90-degree days in one year. The city already has had 83 days where the high temperature was at least 90 degrees; the record, going back to 1930, is 90 days, which occurred in 1980 and 2011. ”
    So did Atlanta reach or exceed the record this year?

    • Gator says:

      So did Atlanta reach or exceed the record this year?

      So did the alleged record use fudged data?

    • paul courtney says:

      IMHO the Quitman graphs clearly rebut that claim, but he didn’t say “rebut” or “falsify”, did he? He said “rendered meaningless”. I like to play with words, too, except in this play, the words mean something. Yours? Not so much.

      • Phil. says:

        Explain how Quitman, 230 miles south of Atlanta, addresses the original claim of the number of 90º days in Atlanta.

        • Gator says:

          So you ignore all the other data Tony serves up, and you think Atlanta would on average be hotter than Quitman? Have you ever lived in the Southeast? I have. I lived in Atlanta. Atlanta has massive UHI issues. What is the UHI adjustment used in the data upon which this looming “record” claim is based? Isn’t it dishonest not discussing UHI in relation to this pending “record”?

  8. David Almoslino says:

    Tony; you’re awesome.

    Here’s a typical article that is freaking out all my friends in Seattle:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/opinion/sunday/science-climate-change.html?fbclid=IwAR11F7U6KUwqC2Eks_10_pVf7LHK_LEu9ajrcH8yuHyhgnWer0jJpv4eEBk

    It came via Facebook, and I’d love to respond to them with your (forthcoming?) response.

    Thank you!

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