“Experts See Little Evidence”

Like with climate science, being a virus expert means interpreting data exactly opposite what it shows.

Coronavirus Bell Curve | Daily COVID-19 Statistics for the United States

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19 Responses to “Experts See Little Evidence”

  1. rah says:

    I see little evidence that the “experts” are anything but government and academic hacks!

  2. Crispin in Waterloo says:

    Congrats Tony. This seems to be the only place that is plotting the events and the numbers. Given the delay between exposure and getting sick enough to warrant testing, some refinement could be applied.

    What is the infection number divided by number of tests, and the trend of that?
    What is the population age pyramid and how is it evolving over time (do you know what I mean)?
    Given the wider testing, what is the trend in the death rate as a % of the number testing positive?
    Can that result be factored by age so we can see if the trends per age group are changing, and in which direction?

    There must be a method applied to the whole population that estimates the number of positives. How skillful is that model – we now have greater random testing to verify it.


  3. aido says:

    After the Bay of Pigs disaster, JFK was heard to mutter “I wish I’d never listened to the experts”.

    These days, I make up my on mind, basd on the facts.

  4. Xellos Metallum says:

    The Incubation time of Covid19 is about 2 weeks, so this make complete sense

    Thanks for doing a good job here

  5. BART says:

    “No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest,” Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for de Blasio


  6. Richard says:

    Deaths will lag by at least two weeks, right ?

    • Kozlowski says:

      Unlikely as the age group out protesting has experienced few deaths. There might be some bump in deaths from the youth spreading it to their elders.

  7. Advocatus Diaboli says:

    Tony, that’s a telling graph there, thanks. Wonder why that doesn’t get splashed all over CNN and the evening news…

    However, when I clicked on the link below the graph, I got a “certificate error,” with the explanation that:

    “The security certificate presented by this website was issued for a different website’s address.
    “Security certificate problems may indicate an attempt to fool you or intercept any data you send to the server. ”

    Anybody know if the same or a similar graph might be available from some other website?

  8. Advocatus Diaboli says:

    Weird — I could not get on that coronavirusbellcurve.com from three different browsers on two Windows PCs, but I did manage to reach it using a Linux computer.

    An earlier comment that I’d posted from one of those Windows PCs also did not seem to show up here. Let’s see if this one (submitted from the Linux computer) makes it onto your site.

  9. cardo says:

    In the part of Colorado where I live the resturaunts and pubs reopened around June 20,
    a week after the uptick in infections from the riots had begun.
    The governor shut the pubs back down after about a week blaming the uptick on the reopening, not the riots.

  10. Ed Bo says:

    Come on! It was obviously spread by manicurists and hairdressers!

  11. Walt says:

    Well at least we can see that the virus is not causing the death of very many protesters. Perhaps they are protected by some magical source that only works for the protestors.

  12. Feral Errol says:

    There are none so blind as those who will not see.

  13. Charles Higley says:

    Lets not forget that new “cases” are simply a positive test result and no indication that one is sick or even infected. The insane widely adopted concept that all such positive asymptomatic tests mean a carrier that can infect others is just stupid and ignorant. Typhoid Mary is famous for being a rare carrier.

    As the test tests for a general covi genetic sequence, it is not specific for C-19. This is why we see 80% asymptomatic positives. In the real world, we would call them false positives if we were really looking for C-19. Cases in the real world are people with the virus and with symptoms, duh.

    Sure, there is a virus out there that can take down those already critically health compromised but that does not make it any more deadly than influenza. The flu season is a salad of covis and flu viruses, so new cases only means covis are flying about. Look to the death rate to see what we should be concerned about.

  14. fhsiv says:

    Looks like a divergence problem for the opinion cartel.

  15. Douglas Hoyt says:

    The definition of whether one has COVID-19 has recently changed.

    See https://www.dropbox.com/s/8jy9hyl6iqjas6e/NEW%20Covid-19%20Case%20Definions.pdf?dl=0

    Previously one case would be reported if the test was positive. Now that one case becomes multiple cases, based simply upon how many people the positive case has come in contact with directly or indirectly. In a sample case in the above document, one positive case could now be reported as 17 positive cases.

  16. Joel says:

    I wonder what the curve for deaths from seasonal flu looks like this year. Or are they just chalking them up as Covid deaths?

  17. The next time I read a blog, I hope that it does not disappoint me just as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read through, nonetheless I really thought you would have something useful to say. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something that you could possibly fix if you weren’t too busy seeking attention.

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