Michael Mann Hurricane Update

Michael Mann predicted 33 “named storms” and is declaring victory at just over half that.  He also claims he knows how many storms occurred in the mid-Atlantic in 1851 – misinformation he has been spreading for almost twenty years – “this presumption is not reasonable”

(7) Prof Michael E. Mann on X: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you, @JimCantore ? https://t.co/rFD0oyb5tg https://t.co/DSghM46APz” / X

(9) Prof Michael E. Mann on X: “For those who are keeping track, that’s named storm #18. Only 11 seasons going back to 1851 have seen that many storms. (Note: the last time tropical Atlantic temps were near this warm and we were headed toward La Nina–2005–the season extended into January)” / X

“The Atlantic is the one tropical cyclone basin that has quantitative records back to the midnineteenth century for the whole basin (i.e., North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico) [Jarvinen et al., 1984; Landsea et al., 2004]. Mann and Emanuel [2006] used this data set to find a positive correlation between sea surface temperatures and Atlantic basin tropical cyclone frequency for the period of 1871– 2005. Likewise, Holland and Webster [2007] analyzed Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency back to 1855 and found a doubling of the number of tropical cyclones over the past 100 years. Both papers linked these changes directly to anthropogenic greenhouse warming. However, both analyses, with no indication of uncertainty or error bars, presumed that tropical cyclone counts are complete or nearly complete for the entire basin going back in time for at least a century. This article will show that this presumption is not reasonable and that improved monitoring in recent years is responsible for most, if not all, of the observed trend in increasing frequency of tropical cyclones.’

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf