Over the last nine days, Beaufort Sea ice has been moving west and rotating, but the individual floes are not changing much in size or shape.
http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2011-07-11/7-N73.631839-W134.091409
http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2011-07-02/7-N73.631839-W134.091409
CT’s area metric shows roughly average loss for the last two weeks or so, making the JAXA extent numbers a little less worrisome. My updated JAXA minimum prediction is now 4750570 km^2.
-Scott
Are you worried about Hudson and Baffin Bay ice?
Not at all, as I realize that any area involved in melting until this point doesn’t play into the September result at all, though a rapid melt there may mean faster melts elsewhere. In reality, the Hudson Bay ice did fine this summer considering all the howling last winter about how long it took to freeze up. While most recent years did “better” wrt Hudson Bay than did 2011, the melt was no sooner than several years, including 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007.
-Scott
With an up to 85% error margin depending on which way the wind is blowing and how many icebreaker are moving through the region watching the changes in ice cover is as boring as my watching the trees grow.
The biggest problem with the ice breakers is that they are designed to break up ice dams and it’s the ice dams that keep the ice from blowing out of there………
Most ice loss is through the Framm and Naires straight, ice breakers don’t go up there is general.
Wind is only one mechanism of ice loss, it’s always the one in favour around here for some reason.
lol, are you kidding? This is like the Preakness of climate watchers!
While many skeptics are like you and me, in that we don’t consider it all that meaningful, the alarmists are so vested in this issue, we can’t help but look! lol, human nature is funny.
They have to be, as this is perhaps the only area where the predictions by the IPCC were met or even exceeded by reality. Some of the other icons of CAGW have improved over the last decade or been shown to be due to other causes (i.e. Kilimanjaro).
The thing is, AFAIK, no one has attributed the losses in ice to GHG warming yet. And while my personal belief is that GHG warming has had an effect on the ice, I certainly don’t think it’s the whole story. So while prediction is what a lot of people focus on, where the real meat of the matter comes is in attribution. Do note that constantly improved predictions with time (something we haven’t seen yet, if ever), may mean that attribution is being better understood at some level.
-Scott
Dreamer! 😉
Well, I think that’s the problem. One of Dr. Stroeve’s visits here revealed that they were working on models with the assumption of GHG’s already invoked as to their effects on the ice. (sigh) I thought that odd because the quantitative effect of temps to ice extent isn’t known, much less the attribution of GHG’s being the cause of our current temps isn’t known, (but assumed by many), but they’re just taking out of that in between muddling stuff and going right at the cause of diminishing ice extent! I can’t wait for the next metric on this! 3 cubic inches per barrel of oil.
Note! We can’t invoke per ton of coal consumed any more in that it both cools and heats simultaneously. Apparently, China’s coal makes us colder, our coal makes us hotter.
There will be ice…..
There will be open water…..
how much of each will indicate nothing about the future………
Traitor in Chief:
There will be ice…..
There will be open water…..
how much of each will indicate nothing about the future………
That is so profound(ly wrong).
I guess that things are simple in your alternative universe.
If you make major changes in a complex system you will get a different system. You cannot move the continents around without expecting a change in climate. You cannot move most ocean currents around without expecting the same.
Removing the ice cap which insulates the water will also change the climate. In fact, it will be impossible not to change the climate.
Try swimming in a rip tide and see if you can move anything. The deluded imagination of the left knows no bounds.
Wow, we are moving the continents around ?
Cheez, I hope we don’t tip over Australia !
“Ha, ha, doomie shite denierist. Do you sex mommy you weigh 500 pound? Study up statistics, neanderthal. I reada book. Toss off, A’Turf!”
That’s summation of the best-in-class debate points I was so frighteningly confronted with this weekend on dozens of sites that don’t desperately moderate.
David Mamet, the former lefty playwright now turned conservative summed up this bile-spewing phenomenon as being driven by a very primitive lizard brain level of subconsciousness, namely the urge to hiss and spit at outsiders of one’s inbred group.
I noticed another thing, only this weekend, embarrassingly, for I should have seen it before: those who are most energized to publicly attack the character of skeptics in cartoonish haunted house fashion are also most likely to spend hours at a time mass huddling in miserable raw pain on Tamino’s uber-moderated blog, kvetching, rubbing open sores, searching for the logic of it all: how it’s possible that their bright lockstep Utopian skies have suddenly darkened, blame gaming and themselves wondering how to game the evil system that is the dinosaur ridden fossil fueled “denialist industry.”
Their souls are human reincarnations of cockroaches, and this invokes an odd flavor of pity in me that makes me as comfortable as naively saying a glad-handed “hello” to a bunch of addicts in a reddened needle strewn drug den.
AGW is the crack cocaine of leftism, it’s spiritual Soma, sacrament, and sublime divine halo, one which has stopped growing in their lost rainforest of the mind, now a scarce commodity, the horror, the horror of it all, withdrawal being very devil Himself.
Ya know, that is about as good as any diagnosis of these slime vermin that I have heard. It also pretty much agrees with we have heard from other ex-groupies that are now on the ‘outs’ with their former propaganda gangs.
Last year, Hudson Bay became ice free around 7/20. In 2009, around 9/1. 2008 was around 8/26.
As of 7/11/11, Hudson Bay is still around 25% ice covered, so it should at least last until around 8/1. Considering all the hissy-fitting about Hudson Bay, the ice there is holding out fairly well.