On July 17, NSIDC warned of impending Arctic doom
July 18, 2011
Early sea ice melt onset, snow cover retreat presage rapid 2011 summer declineArctic sea ice extent declined at a rapid pace through the first half of July, and is now tracking below the year 2007, which saw the record minimum September extent. The rapid decline in the past few weeks is related to persistent above-average temperatures and an early start to melt.
Since then, melt has slowed down and there has been little change in the ice edge. Red shows where it has shrunk and green shows where it has grown.
Readers of the Real Science blog knew that this was going happen.
is now tracking below the year 2007
These folks don’t let a single opportunity pass by. So much for long term perspectives that they are always hammering on everyone’s brain about.
Oh well…. when you are wrong so badly so often, it feels so good to point to something tangible, even if fleeting and usually cherry flavored.
The 17th/18th really was a huge transition in the extent trend. The 17th was the 12th day in a row with JAXA losses above average…which is remarkable. What’s even crazier is that starting the 18th, there have been 13 straight days of below average losses….not a single day above. Note that today (the 30th) was going to be the toughest to “beat”, with the average loss being the lowest until Aug 8 (and the lowest since June 30). Although I’m using the provisional number for today, I doubt we’ll see it shift by the 16500 km^2 required to make today have above average losses.
Average losses stay fairly high for another 10 days before starting to drop significantly. If 2011 losses can stay below average for most of that time, that’ll be this year’s best “chance” to catch back up with the 2008, 2010, or 2009 range, although I still predict us finishing a bit below 2008. What does the new PIPS superceder forecaster thing say for the next week?
Note – for “average” I use the 2002-2010 JAXA data.
-Scott
I don’t think there is a snowballs chance in hell that it will finish below 2008.
I hope you’re right. It’d really be a shocker to the hardcore alarmists. One commenter at Tamino’s site thought there was a fair chance of breaking the 2007 record by Sept 1…we’ll see about that.
But we’re almost 700k km^2 lower than 2008 right now, which is a big deficit to make up. However, 2008 lost by far the most extent from July 30 to the minimum. I assume that this is due at least in part to the very small amount of multiyear ice coming into 2008. 2011 is better in this regard, so it will likely fair much better. Additionally, if we finish out this year with identical extent loss as 2009, we’ll see 2011 finish just above 2010, which would be interesting. If it finishes with similar losses as 2006, we’ll see a value about 100k below 2009.
The weather last winter was not favorable for ice gain…if it had been, I wonder how much more delayed 2011’s melts to date would have been. It would have painted quite a different picture.
-Scott
The ice is much thicker this year than 2008
Two more weeks and we’ll have a much clearer picture.
it says a lot when “30 year averages” called climate get discussed with a sportscasting attitude and a float-by-float account of latest melts
Pure Propaganda.
USA Taxpayers should contact their Congress critters and demand that this NSIDC thing is shutdown and the money returned to the taxpayers. Identify Mark Serreze by name as a bedwetting alarmist propagandist that is in way over his empty head. These agencies are working against America, they serve no real purpose and are falsely screaming fire in a crowded theater. Frozen water is returning to liquid water. The world is not ending!
There was a time when only sleazy reporters and Omni magazine engaged in this hype and pop-science which was fine since they were not taxpayer operations. But taking our money and giving it to these clowns is like a sick joke. I’m fed up with it.
They do nothing that university science departments or private companies or citizens could do. Shut them down.