Real Climate Science

There is currently about six trillion tons of Arctic sea ice.  All that alarmists have to do is melt that in the next week or two, before the melt season shuts down. They just need to melt about one trillion tons of ice per day.

DMI Modelled ice thickness

Expert: Arctic polar cap may disappear this summer_English_Xinhua

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

BBC NEWS | UK | Swimmer aims to kayak to N Pole

Star-News – Google News Archive Search

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

Wayback Machine

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 | Sierra Club Canada

Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist | Environment | The Guardian

The End of the Arctic? Ocean Could be Ice Free by 2015 – The Daily Beast

A farewell to ice | Review | Chemistry World

And President Obama’s science adviser predicted ice-free winters.

…if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, it’s going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere.

– John Holdren, 2009

The Time of Observation Bias (TOB) adjustment is the primary excuse for rewriting US temperature history.

NASA 1998

NASA 2019

I have new tools in place which show what a farce that is. The graph below plots the summer 1936 average daily maximum temperature of all Missouri stations which took their readings during morning/night in blue, and all stations which took their readings during afternoon/evening in red. The yellow line is the average for all Missouri stations this summer. The reason I used Missouri is that they have an excellent temperature record, the state is small, and had a nearly even mix of morning and afternoon stations during 1936.

Spreadsheet

As you can see, there is very little difference between the morning and afternoon stations from 1936, but there is a huge difference between 1936 and 2019. This summer has been thirteen degrees cooler than 1936.

The afternoon stations in the graph above average about 0.7F warmer than the morning stations.  Let’s look at what is causing this. The trend since 1895 is nearly identical for both groups, with the set of afternoon stations consistently warmer by about 0.7F until the most recent decade.

The cause of this is that the afternoon stations in 1936 averaged about half a degree of latitude (35 miles) further south, which corresponds to about 0.9F warmer temperatures.

The entire (tiny) difference between morning and afternoon stations can be completely accounted for by differences in latitude.  There is no indication TOB has any impact on measured temperatures. TOB is just one more lame excuse to erase America’s hot past.

Station information was taken from here.  NOAA is making it harder and harder to find this information, so I had to pull it off the web archive.

1936 Morning Stations
USC00232809.dly : FARMINGTON MO 37.7922 -90.4103
USC00234271.dly : JEFFERSON CITY WTP MO 38.5853 -92.1825
USC00234705.dly : LAMAR 7N MO 37.5983 -94.2842
USC00234825.dly : LEBANON 2W MO 37.685 -92.6939
USC00234850.dly : LEES SUMMIT REED WR MO 38.8803 -94.3358
USC00234904.dly : LEXINGTON 3E MO 39.1828 -93.855
USC00235541.dly : MEXICO MO 39.1756 -91.8861
USC00235671.dly : MOBERLY MO 39.4194 -92.4369
USC00235834.dly : MTN GROVE 2 N MO 37.1542 -92.2619
USC00238523.dly : UNIONVILLE MO 40.475 -93.0031

1936 Afternoon Stations
USC00230204.dly : APPLETON CITY MO 38.1872 -94.0283
USC00230856.dly : BOWLING GREEN 1 E MO 39.3444 -91.1711
USC00231037.dly : BRUNSWICK MO 39.4247 -93.1331
USC00231364.dly : CARUTHERSVILLE MO 36.1875 -89.66
USC00231711.dly : CLINTON MO 38.395 -93.7711
USC00231822.dly : CONCEPTION MO 40.2394 -94.6833
USC00232289.dly : DONIPHAN MO 36.6206 -90.8125
USC00235027.dly : LOCKWOOD MO 37.3908 -93.9492
USC00235253.dly : MARBLE HILL MO 37.3036 -89.9664
USC00235976.dly : NEOSHO MO 36.865 -94.3603
USC00237263.dly : ROLLA MISSOURI S&T MO 37.9567 -91.7761
USC00237963.dly : SPICKARD 7 W MO 40.2472 -93.7158
USC00238051.dly : STEFFENVILLE MO 39.97 -91.8875
USC00238223.dly : SWEET SPRINGS MO 38.9664 -93.4194
USC00238466.dly : TRUMAN DAM & RSVR MO 38.2597 -93.4136
USC00238725.dly : WARRENTON 1 N MO 38.835 -91.1386

If TOB doesn’t work in Missouri, it isn’t going to work anywhere.

01 Aug 1921, Page 4 – The Cincinnati Enquirer at Newspapers.com

(3) Steve Goddard on Twitter: “@EricHolthaus It is not unusual for Greenland to gain 12 billion tons of new snow in a day. Your hysterics are completely ridiculous and have nothing to do with science..” / Twitter

Greenland gained 22 billion tons of ice in two days last autumn.

Surface Conditions: Polar Portal

In a few days, it will be -4F there.

I frequently get told by climate alarmists that one day of warm weather at one location is climate, but 100 years of cooling in the US is cherry picking.

Over the past three years, Greenland’s surface has gained 250 billion tons more ice than “normal.”

2017 : +200 billion   2018 : +150 billion   2019 :  -100 billion

2017   2018  2019

Climate alarmists are like bad gamblers.  The count only their winnings, and ignore their larger losings.  Which is just one reason why they are so completely clueless, incompetent and morally bankrupt.

They have determined that three days of relatively mild weather signals the apocalypse.

summit:status:weather

The Midwest had twenty-five days over 100 degrees during August, 1918.

Temperatures topped out at 113 degrees at Clarinda, Iowa on August 4, 1918.

However, Americans were too busy winning WWI to worry about the weather much.

04 Aug 1918, 1 – St. Joseph News-Press/Gazette at Newspapers.com

This year, the Midwest has had no days over 100 degrees.

The House Climate Crisis Committee held their first public meeting here in Boulder today.  Temperature is 80 degrees, and Boulder is the greenest anyone has ever seen it this time of year. The Governor declared a “climate crisis” today – after the best ski season and the coolest, greenest summer on record. He wants the state to go 100% renewable energy, which would make it impossible for anyone to get to the ski areas.

I don’t think the committee members flew in on wind powered airplanes, and most electric cars can’t drive to Vail without recharging. Imagine a line of 2,000 electric cars on I-70 waiting to do their two hour fast charge at the recharge station. Could take the rest of the driver’s life.

One of the more amazing moments was when Rep. Garret Graves, (R) Louisiana implied that we could stop land subsidence in Louisiana by building windmills in Colorado.

For the whole country, this was the coolest January-July on record – with the smallest number of hot days.

The frequency of hot days is down more than 60% since the 1930s.

Average minimum temperature has been 14th coolest on record. Illinois set their all-time cold record earlier this year.

Most states set their all-time temperature record more than 60 years ago, and none have set their record since 2012.

The committee effused about how the audience was participating in government, though we were not allowed to speak or ask questions. Democrats’ concept of participation is essentially the same as the Soviet Union.

The entire event was a fascinating exercise in mass inanity and delusion. As a scientist and observer – I love this stuff. I’m getting to witness one of the most bizarre events in human history.  A planned campaign to destroy civilization – via an army of useful idiots.

On this date in 1715, a massive hurricane struck Florida’s Treasure Coast, sank ten ships carrying Spanish treasure, and killed more than 1,000 sailors.  That is how the Treasure Coast got its name.

Democrats would have prevented this tragedy with an 85% carbon tax on the gold.

300-year-old treasure from famous shipwreck found in Florida waters – CBS News

25 Mar 1967, 29 – The Record at Newspapers.com

The Spanish Camp Site and the 1715 Plate Fleet Wreck: Tequesta : Number 26/1966, pages 21-30