Real Climate Science

mwr-035-01-0007b.pdf

On election day in 2016, both satellite data sets (UAH and RSS) showed a 15 year long hiatus in global warming, and bore no resemblance to the warming trend being generated by NOAA and NASA.  I captured this image in a November 16, 2016 blog post.

Gavin Schmidt Promises To Resign | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

This is what the same graph looks like now.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

In the next image, I overlaid the current RSS graph on the 2016 image.  You can see how RSS was adjusted to match the NASA data.

I predicted this would happen on March 27, 2015.

Look for the satellite data to be adjusted to bring it into compliance with the fully fraudulent surface temperatures. The Guardian is now working to discredit UAH, so it seems likely that RSS will soon be making big changes – to match the needs of the climate mafia. Bookmark this post.

Roy Spencer at UAH made the same prediction on January 9, 2017

“I expect there will soon be a revised TLT product from RSS which shows enhanced warming, too.

Here’s what I’m predicting:

1) neither John Christy nor I will be asked to review the paper

2) it will quickly sail through peer review (our UAH V6 paper is still not in print nearly 1 year after submission)

3) it will have many authors, including climate model people and the usual model pundits (e.g. Santer), which will supposedly lend legitimacy to the new data adjustments.

Let’s see how many of my 3 predictions come true.

-Roy”

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

The reason I made this prediction was because Ted Cruz used an RSS graph in a Senate hearing in March of 2015. Carl Mears at RSS then came under intense pressure to make his data match the surface temperature data.

My particular dataset (RSS tropospheric temperatures from MSU/AMSU satellites) show less warming than would be expected when compared to the surface temperatures. All datasets contain errors. In this case, I would trust the surface data a little more because the difference between the long term trends in the various surface datasets (NOAA, NASA GISS, HADCRUT, Berkeley etc) are closer to each other than the long term trends from the different satellite datasets. This suggests that the satellite datasets contain more “structural uncertainty” than the surface dataset.

Ted Cruz says satellite data show the globe isn’t warming

You can see what Mears did to bring his data into compliance. This was his web page in November 2016.

Note that after 1998, the observations are likely to be below the simulated values, indicating that the simulation as a whole are predicting too much warming.

Climate Analysis | Remote Sensing Systems

But under intense pressure,  Mears altered his own data to bring it into compliance.  The large discrepancy became a small discrepancy.

there is a small discrepancy between the model predictions and the satellite observations.

Remote Sensing Systems

The image below overlays Mears’ old graph (V3) on his new one (V4.) It is clear what he did – he  eliminated the blue error interval, and started using the high side of the interval as his temperature.

RSS V3 shows no warming since 2002.

The warming was all created by tampering with the data to eliminate the error interval.

Spreadsheet

The corruption is now complete.  NASA has announced that new satellite data matches their surface temperature data. This was done to keep the President’s Commission on Climate Security from having accurate data to work with.

All government climate data goes through the same transition in support of global warming alarm. The past keeps getting cooler, and recent years keep getting warmer.

NASA 1999   NASA 2016

Government climate agencies appear to be using Orwell’s 1984 as Standard Operating Procedure.

Democrats tell us that terrorism is driven by climate change.  This month in 1909, thirty-thousand Christians were killed in Turkey. Some people did something.

16 Apr 1909, 1 – The Boston Globe at Newspapers.com

Steve Goddard on Twitter: “Dilbert disagrees with you, and I normally side with Dilbert.…

This Climategate e-mail shows unequivocally that scientists from different groups colluded to get the same result, and that result involved cooling the past – without any justification.

di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt

I don’t always dress up for Halloween, but when I do I go as Dilbert.

The party of science now believes the Carboniferous Period is oil company propaganda.

Steve Goddard on Twitter: “Miriam found a way to blame a massive Islamic terror attack on white people, so she earned her pay for the day.… “

The Capital Weather Gang says Greenland is baking.

Greenland is baking, too. In fact, its summer melt season has already begun — more than a month ahead of schedule.

It’s been exceptionally warm in Greenland lately and ice is melting a month early – The Washington Post

Temperatures in Greenland so far this year have been coldest since 1995, and 18th coldest since 1885..

Spreadsheet

It is currently -32C in the interior of Greenland.

summit:status:webcam

It has been very cold there.

summit:status:weather

There has been close to zero melt in Greenland this year.

Surface Conditions: Polar Portal

Temperatures are dropping rapidly in Greenland, with last year being the coldest year since 1989.

Last summer was the third coolest on record in Greenland, with only 7% of days last year above 50F.  Yet climate experts continue to claim that Greenland is melting down.

Last summer Danmarkshavn, Greenland never got above 51 degrees.  Their coolest summer since 1983, when skies were obscured by dust from the eruption of El Chichon.

Greenland has gained near record amounts of ice over the last two years.

2017   2018

But eighty years ago, Greenland’s glaciers were rapidly melting and facing “catastrophic collapse.”

17 Dec 1939, Page 15 – Harrisburg Sunday Courier at Newspapers.com

The Capital Weather Gang doesn’t seem to do a lot of fact checking. They apparently parrot any alarmist BS they get told by academics.

The Capital Weather Gang is shocked that April is hot in Vietnam (at latitude 10N.)

Did you sleep through geography class? 

Peak temperatures occur in April in Vietnam.

climate – Graph – Ho Chi Minh Vietnam – WeatherOnline

Vietnam was over 110 degrees in 1982, 1983, 1984 and 1996.  Their hottest temperature was 116 degrees on June 22, 1984.  On April 25, 1983, Vietnam reached 111 degrees.

The frequency of 100 degree days peaked fifty years ago in Vietnam, in 1968 and 1969 – during the Vietnam War.

Spreadsheet

Capital Weather Gang got everything wrong in this article.  Will they retract?

Nothing ever changes with mankind’s superstitions about climate.

IMAGINARY CHANGES OF CLIMATE.

a plentiful crop speculation from weather prophets, and projectors, and half-instructed meteorologists, and all the philosophic tribe of Laputa In general, to whom the periodical press now affords such fatal facilities. We

every season is sure to be ” extraordinary,” almost every month one of the driest or wettest, or windiest, coldest or hottest, ever known. Much observation, which ought to correct a tendency to exaggerate, seems in some minds to have rather a tendency to increase it.

Others, speculating quite as conjecturally and even more absurdly, seem to attribute the impending change of climate—of which they assume the reality—to the operation of men

– January 21, 1871

21 Jan 1871 – IMAGINARY CHANGES OF CLIMATE. – Trove

This is graph of US maximum temperatures published on their website. It shows a hockey stick of warming after 1976.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

The actual measured thermometer data does not have the post-1976 hockey stick. There has been very little warming since 1976, perhaps one degree F.

The next graph compares the measured temperatures (blue) vs. the reported (red.) The measured temperatures show long term cooling, but the reported temperatures show warming.

This graph shows the difference between reported and measured temperatures. The post-1976 hockey stick becomes very apparent.

So how is NOAA tampering with the data to create this hockey stick?

Alarmists claim that it is due to Time of Observation Bias or changing station composition, but that isn’t what is going on. NOAA is simply making the data up.  Every month, a certain percentage of stations does not report, and are marked with an E (estimated.) The percentage of estimated (i.e. fake) data has skyrocketed from around 5% to almost 50% since 1976.

And here is the smoking gun.  Comparing the fake adjusted temperatures to the measured adjusted temperatures.  The measured adjusted temperatures show about one degree warming since 1976, but the fake temperatures show about three degrees warming. And almost half of the data is fake now.

The post-1976 hockey stick is created by manufacturing data, not adjusting data as alarmists claim.

Spreadsheet

Manipulating the US temperature data is very important to global warming scamsters, because the US has the vast majority of high quality long term data.  Much of the rest of the world has been very busy dealing with genocide and world wars for the past century. Maintaining temperature data was a low priority for people trying to keep from being killed by their government.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/figures/station-counts-1891-1920-temp.png

And then there is UHI.  Thirty years ago, Tom Karl and Phil Jones said that UHI was responsible for the entire warming trend  in the US.

1520-0477(1989)070<0265:UBIAAS>2.0.CO;2

The world ends in 12 years, and China plans to build hundreds of new coal fired power plants.

China’s power industry calls for hundreds of new coal power plants by 2030 – Unearthed

But not to worry.  Bernie is going to punish American companies for selling him the fuels he needs to survive.