Lake Ontario is freezing over very quickly, and has some very cold weather on the way.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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I can’t wait to sail my ice boat from Toronto to Oswego
When you get there head to Bridie Manor, just up the River from the harbor.All you can eat snow crab legs on Fridays.
Today is the Polar Bear Plunge in in Chicago for the Special Olympics which Jimmie Fallon is supposed to participate in.
“According to Michigan State University, the water temperatures in Chicago were around 36.5°F (2.5°C) on February 23, as frigid as the ice-cold waters of the Bering Sea.”
http://galleries.apps.chicagotribune.com/chi-140228-beach-prepped-for-polar-plunge-pictures/
The western half of Ontario is still relatively warm, around 38 deg F, according to NOAA:
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs-ice.php?lake=o&type=N&hr=00
The temp transects show it has fully turned over (uniformly below 4 deg C):
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=o&ext=vwt&type=N&hr=00
So it is conceivable with some very cold surface temps it could go at least 50% maybe more.
If the Great Lakes top 90% ice cover, people should realize how extraordinary that really is. It has only occurred in 1994 and 1979 in the last 50 years. Very rare, very cold, much more enduring than a few hot spells as it usually carries over for two years or more.
Amazing really, the lunatics claim the oceans warming is more important than the air due to the heat content, but they have called the Great Lakes freezing an anomaly.
It went from 20% to over 40% in one day yesterday. You think it might hit 50%? ROFL
This afternoon after the wind picked up a little the slush that was offshore of Rochester NY (about 500 plus feet out) dissipated. Open water from 500 feet out to the limits of visibility (about 5 miles this afternoon). Slush ice from 150 feet out to 500 feet moving eastward with the current.
Shore line to 500 feet is shallow (at this location) only up to your neck, at 500 feet a steep dropoff occurs and it is “open” water.
Could still “freeze over” but I won’t be walking across it.
Cheers, Kevin.
Wind a big factor on the changing ice coverage. It doesn’t freeze because of its depth.
Here’s graph:
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdata/cwops/webdata/statistic/gif/o2013_2014_ice.gif
Scroll down here for graphs of all the lakes:
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/
That explains why the Arctic Ocean never freezes.
If you put Lake Ontario at the north pole, I take back my $5 bet
I can see over the lake for miles from my hilltop. Wind moves ice around, but during calmer periods the ice quickly reforms. It only takes a few days for massive expansion this time of year. Today has moderate snow falling w/ low visibility and no wind to speak of, but yesterday when it was calm and sunny the 8-10 miles of view was all snow covered ice. I thought that was remarkable.
Is there a difference between these two services?
http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page2.xhtml?CanID=11080&lang=en
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00
Yeah. One measures ice in inches, the other measures it in centimeters and reports it in French.
What I’m seeing is NOAA uses % ice Conc. and CLCFS uses ice thickness in centimeters. It appears to me using the Canadian product is showing ice cover higher then the 86% that NOAA is reporting. There’s very little ice free open water.
All the ice will result in colder spring and summer. I’m sure this is all weather though.
New Ontario farewell? “Have an ice day!” ;p
Latest from near Rochester NY. Firm ice out about 3oo feet from shore. Slush Ice another 600-800 feet further beyond that (moving eastward with the current). Slight slush on the water surface. Then clear water from about 1/4 mile to the horizon (10-15 miles). Latest local forecast is in the 20’s by Wednesday. The ice usually recedes back towards the shore when the temp is above about 15 degrees.
Looks like No 100% freeze up this year. But an impressive show none the less. It is amazing how the ice can form over 500 feet of open water overnight.
Cheers, Kevin.
Another prophet. If the weather forecast is correct, it is going to freeze over.
Steve, just reporting observations as I see them from my front window. I’ve seen the ice “go out” pretty fast (hundreds of feet overnight). And I’ve seen it come back even faster. If a North wind shows up it will dissolve all that slush ice back to solid ice in a few hours.
In general if the temp is ~15 (as shown on the forecast maps you graciously provided) or above the slush ice retreats.
Cheers, Kevin
The amount of ice on the lake has tripled in the last three days. If the NCEP weather forecast is correct, it will freeze over.
Steve, OK, I’ll keep you posted from here on the “North Coast”.
Love your blog by the way, Very nice work looking up the real history of the weather.
And no, I do not believe in the “CAGW” scare.
Cheers, Kevin.
I understand. I just don’t believe that any body of water is immune to freezing if it stays cold long enough.
Yeah, well the lake does what it wants to do. I just feel lucky to be able to watch it. You should stop by some time in the late summer when it’s so calm it looks like a mirror.
I was on the pier at Burlington during a full moon last summer. It was beautiful.