I have been blogging for months that this summer was going to be a disaster for Arctic alarmists, who have been claiming record heat and record low ice extent. Nature has called them out on their fraud.
Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
I am surprised though that once again as the equinox that marks the beginning of Astronomical Autumn approaches the temps are running above the mean. Of course it is still freezing but all summer the temps remained below the mean but now after Meteorological Autumn the red line goes over the green.
Not complaining just wondering and thinking that perhaps the above average SSTs along the east coast of the US being carried up by the Gulf Stream may have something to do with that. Along that same line of thinking. If Hurricanes are the cooling monsters, with so many storms (THREE active hurricanes with Katia in the bay of Campeche and strengthening, Irma in the Caribbean at a CAT V and hold strength, and Jose in the Central Atlantic strengthening, that is one hell of a lot of energy being taken out of the water and one hell of a lot of mixing that has to be bringing cooler water to the surface. Should not the cooling effect during a very active hurricane season be discernable?
As water freezes, it releases heat.
It has released heat when it froze since 1958 though. It is strange that the winter temps have been above normal and summers below. Probably a reflection of the currently warm AMO
Cue Griffy, the village idiot, to now show up to tell us all the long term trend is still down etc etc
Griff you said a big melt was in the bag and blew your forecast …. LOSER!
Very wintery at Obuoy14 this AM http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/camera
It looks very overcast.
There must be lots and lots of DWLWIR from all those clouds which no doubt will melt the ice, or at any rate stop the water from freezing.
Perhaps Griff can advise whether in the late summer clouds are more effective than solar at keeping the Arctic warm and melting the ice.
yes, it is.
And cherry picking which graphs you show won’t change that.
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012090718_2012090500_035_arcticictn.001.gif
cold year, poor melt conditions and still we have low extent, poor concentration, thinner ice and less volume (and we haven’t quite finished the season yest).
Look back to 2006 and before, over a decade ago , and compare that to the current state
“Look back to 2006 and before, ”
That is something you REFUSE to do.
You cherry-pick the COLDEST period in 10,000 years as a reference point.
That is why the current level is above what it has been for 90-95% of the Holocene….
.. The climate is still only just a bit warmer than that coldest period.
That is why there is still ONE HECK OF A LOT OF ARCTIC SEA ICE !!
Far more than at any time except the LIA. !
But you have to DENY that fact, don’t you.. otherwise.. you have no reason for your constant yapping and bed-wetting.
Jose has been upgraded to Category 4
It will be interesting to see where the ice extent stands in a week or twos time.
I do not like extrapolating short term trends, but there is a prospect that we might rach 2012 levels. From a scientific point of view, that does not hold much significance, but should it happen, it emphasizes how exaggerated the claims of record melt and downward death spiral really are.
It is possible the remnants of Irma or Jose could end up impacting the Arctic. Extent and area are very dependent on the sea and wind states. That is why they are not good proxies for temperature in the shorter term.
The season isn’t over… could be a little more to go.
More interesting will be the refreeze rate – after an initial burst where the slush in the central ice pack freezes, what about the surrounding seas?
what about the Beaufort and off Svalbard? slow refreeze last year (ignored on this site!)
“could be a little more to go.”
Still, it not going to drop down anywhere near the levels of the MWP and the first 7000+ years of the current interglacial, is it griff
and nowhere near 1 Wadham. .. in fact well over 4 Wadhams.
That is ONE HECK OF A LOT OF SEA ICE. Isn’t it griff.
WAY ABOVE AVERAGE for the Holocene..
what about the Beaufort and off Svalbard? slow refreeze last year (ignored on this site!)
Who died as a result Ms Griff? Which is worse, ignoring meaningless ice, or ignoring the millions who will starve to death this year? Can’t figure it out? Then choke on an ice cube and get back to us.
Serious question: I’m not a scientist, and haven’t put in any serious study, but aren’t glacial and sea ice both mostly caused by precipitation? Doesn’t increased growth of ice cap and/or increases in glaciation put the lie to most of the alarmist claims?
Glacial ice is formed by precipitation. Sea ice forms when sea water goes below its freezing point, roughly -2C, owing to colder air at the sea surface.
A fair point, in fact at this time of year if it is dull and lots of snow deposited on top of the ice then this puts a blanket on the ice and stops that interaction. Then the sea temp has more of an effect, melting from below.
Andy
As Rud says, salty sea water at the surface must first lose some of its heat and freeze. Once the sea surface is frozen, snowfall accumulation on sea ice plays a similar role as on glaciers and ice sheets.
Colorado-
Thanks. I’m still trying to reconcile any melting ice cap story with the -20F freezing temp of salt water. Sorry for off-topic.
You shouldn’t listen to climate AGW megamouths :)
Last year was a dull year summer wise in the Arctic and this year seems even duller. So more ice, low compared to the sat record average but about right for the 2010’s onwards record.
In a boring sort of way it does actually mean we can compare two years back to back and then can see how they compare going into winter and then next year. Two years is not a very good running average but it is better than wild swings!
From an email I did to a scientist in mid July “from my view it looks an average year so far in the Arctic so might give a nice short term back to back with 2016. Fingers crossed everything is boring to September.”
It is boring weather wise up there, don’t get carried away with some “bounce” as we had after 2008 for people wanting it to be the next ice age. All it did was go back from that abnormal low to the slow decrease.
Having said that, two years of poor summer weather in the Arctic will mean more multiyear ice. You heard it here first, Tony do not steal my thunder ! :) :p
It will mean 2018 will be interesting again.
Ice or hurricanes, I like watching both. One is like a long term relationship and one is a kiss in the dark after a good night out ……….. both are fun.
Andy
HISTORY DENIER. !!
“All it did was go back from that abnormal low ”
It hasn’t been at an abnormal low in 1000’s of years.
Its been at an ABNORMAL HIGH, due to the effect of the Little Ice Age.
WAKE UP. little-minded Andy !!!
You pretend to like science.. but you DENY IT if it doesn’t suit your story.
Off topic
Off your meds.
Not Andy
very much ON TOPIC.. and who the **** do you think you are to say what is on topic.. ARROGANT PR***
Sea ice extent is abnormally high compared to the rest of the Holocene.
ADMIT IT then GET OVER IT !!
You say….. “You shouldn’t listen to climate AGW megamouths ”
But you let them brain-wash you.. DOH !!!
Extent doesn’t look like the ‘go to’ indicator it once was…
volume, thickness and ice levels through the winter are now all in an unhealthy state… they are supplementing the information on the ice state and showing the decline
The Arctic sea ice is NOT in an unhealthy state.
You know that the current level is above what it has been for 90-95% of the last 10,000 years
You are just being a LYING, DECEITFUL,MINDLESS, BED-WETTING ATTENTION-SEEKING TROLL
Ice or hurricanes, I like watching both. One is like a long term relationship and one is a kiss in the dark after a good night out ……….. both are fun.
Leftists really are sick.
Oh! Forgot…
Not Andy
I guess I am just an armchair scientist who loves the Arctic and Antartic cyles. Does that fit into a twitter sentence?
I come on here as Tony is a good bloke who posts about some good things. We just don’t see eye to eye. I am trying to convert him. :)
He is very forgiving of me with my alternative viewpoint of course. Other bloggers should take note. Not banning people who do not have their world view. So I do appreciate that, even if I do get a bee in my bonnet.
Tony should let the Arctic do it’s thing. If is shows AGW in a bad light then so be it, if it shows climate sceptics in a bad light then so be that too. It’s our last real wilderness and has most of the scientists guessing still, which I find quite comforting in this modern age.
We should poke fun at them when they get it wrong, but politics, leave that to the dumb in charge.
Here endeth the lesson. If you have not got me from all my years of posting on here then you will never get that
I like the Polar environment. I like science. I like talking about it. I don’t give a fucking shit about politics.
:)
Andy
“I like science. ”
But it doesn’t like you. It is showing you in a very bad light.
I don’t think you have any comprehension what “science” actually is.
You are a wannabe, who will never-be.
My dog just farted whilst sleeping behind me.
Andy
It makes me laugh when you post because I post science on here and you never do, you just post
“you suck”
Thanks :)
Andy BSc in Astronomy and Geology and MSc in Computer Science.
Just goes to show that an education cannot cure stupid. Pay the man, get the degree. Big deal.
Too bad that at no point in your educational romp, did anyone ever instill in you a sense of humanity or integrity.
Not Andy
Only one degree and only a MSc.
What? could hack the extra to get a PhD?
You have proven that you don’t know diddly about science. Your brain is in a stupor.
“My dog just farted whilst sleeping behind me.”
Explains why your posts stink like dog farts. !
“Andy BSc in Astronomy and Geology and MSc in Computer Science.”
So, star-gazing, and rock-gazing
Then 1 year of playing with computers and maybe a bit of code.
Ho-hum !!
Explains your overall scientific ignorance and inability to read and comprehend simple charts.
Hmm! your major contribution here appears to be writing about bedwetting…
any qualifications other than that you’d like to share?
Only bed-wetter here is you griff.
Its your whole aim in life. !
“your major contribution here appears to be writing about bedwetting”
You ONLY contribution here IS bed-wetting
oh
and ADD deprave attention-seeking
The global AGW campaign against CO2 and the western civilization is pure politics, you dumb duck.
You don’t even read Tony’s posts at times before you splatter some of your BS here.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
The duck’s brain just suffered an overload from complicated input and defaulted.
“zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz”
yes little andy… we KNOW your brain is asleep.
That has been blatantly obvious is your every post.
I don’t give a fucking shit about politics.
Then please do not vote.
I like human life, and preserving it. That appears to be the main difference between us.
Not Andy
Pointless post, we are getting more and more off science with posts by people who cannot post about science, as they are not scientists, they are “followers”
This blog has gone down hill over the years due to this sort of redneck diatribe. Scientists used to post but now it is just the chaff.
Andy
Yes Andy! How pointless it is trying to save human life. Navel gazing is so much more rewarding isn’t it Andy?
And what science have you ever offered? All you do is spout the same old tired ice BS. Ice melts genius! Maybe you slept through the ice cycle lessons in your geology classes, but I remember mine. I also remember being a climatology student right after the ice age scare, and right before the great global warming genocide.
Smug, evil, and stupid is no way to go through life Andy.
Not Andy
Beware, gator. Expecting that voters should be informed is a redneck diatribe in duck land.
“This blog has gone down hill ”
A big fall when you brought your child-minded semi-science with you.
Somewhere Andy confused conscience with con-science, and it has been downhill for him ever since…
“Pointless post”
Good to see you putting headings on your posts.
But really , just your name in enough to know the post will be pointless.
“my alternative viewpoint ”
based on ignorance and lack of scientific knowledge.
Of course he lets you post, you show up the average AGW nutter for what you are.
Can we get back to some science?
See my post above.
Cheers
Andy
I doubt that you can.
It is NOT part of who you are.
I saw your post… semi-factual nonsense.
See below
Was that Andy? How can we tell? He didn’t sign his name!
Must be typing one handed.
Not Andy
What kind of science Andy? Science for the benefit of mankind? Or “science” to benefit your selfish world view?
Not Andy
Interesting to note that Jaxa shows a downtick
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is what Tony’s graph now shows too, compare to graph above
http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi1_ice_area.png
Not sure why that increase is suddenly downwards. ?????
Best to compare multiple graphs. NSIDC, which takes a 5 day average shows no uptick.
Andy
Do you DENY that Arctic sea ice is currently above what it has been for some 90-95% of the Holocene?
Do you DENY that the extent currently ABNORMALLY HIGH.
That is what SCIENCE tells us.
Heck , you proved you can’t even read a basic graph !!
How did you even get past junior high, is the wonder !!
Show me 2017 on that graph and also the underlying data, otherwise it is not relevant to my last post and you are just spamming.
Andy
YAWN…
DENIAL is all you have left, isn’t it , mindless twerp
If you look back to the orginal post I think you may find Tony posted about 2017 and not the Holocene.
I know you try to bring that up at any excuse, even in polite conversation about some something completely different, at the drop of the hat, but it is not relevant to this post here.
When Tony posts about the Holocene then, well, go for it ! You will be the most experienced poster on here about it. Good luck!
Andy
Then top putting the little YAPPING ignorant clauses like calling current Arctic sea ice “low”.
IT IS NOT . It is ABNORMALLY HIGH
All you do is to continue to display your WILFULLY IGNORANCE and CHRONIC DENIAL.
You are no scientist, that is FOR SURE.
AndyG55,
You just don’t understand.
DSc BSc in Astronomy and Geology and MSc in Computer Science is telling you that 2017 is not part of the Holocene. He is a scientist.
Oh crap CW! You’re right! If I had known I was dealing with a man of letters, I would have simply put my brain in neutral, shredded my own diplomas, and allowed the gravity of his store bought “genius” to guide me.
So much easier to be a sheep…
Not Aaaaaaaaandy
Geology? and he doesn’t understand the term “Neoglaciation”
Serious shortcomings in his learning (but that has been obvious from the start)
Geology, and he thinks melting ice during an interglacial is worthy of turning our backs on millions of humans who will perish as a result.
Stunning uneductaed Andy.
Not Andy
So hilarious watching your squirming around, pretending to be a scientist, but DENYING and REFUSING TO ADMIT science that right in front of you.
What is your agenda, little tape-worm?
Wow. An Uptick! How scientiferic! Yep, 5 days will determine the fate of the Arctic. Never mind the billions of years prior, that is sooooo yesterscience.
Thanks for the update from the Navel Observatory, Andy.
Not Andy
You just don’t understand. This is a long term relationship for our Peeping Tom. He’s been watching it whole 5 days.
The uptick is caused by the way that chart measures extent…
yawn. !
attention-seeking , yet again, hey little bed-wetter.
Rather amusingly the Antarctic has got an increase !
https://imgur.com/VvOFHja
From a really low base.
After several years of increases in the Antarctic it flip flopped in late 2015 to low. Not really seen an answer for this from the scientists yet. They don’t know I guess or are still working it out.
Result is though that Arctic is low but not really low and the Antarctic is really low and not recovering so far. Why?
There is no correlation between the Arctic and Antarctic ice extents but rather ying yang that they seem to compete to fill in the gap, from an anthropomorphic point of view.
Andy BSc Msc
“is though that Arctic is low”
BLATANT LYING and disregard for science, now is it !!
Do you DENY that this graph shows that for most of the first 7000 years of the Holocene, sea ice levels were often close to ice-free in summer.
Its MUCH higher than that now.
Its much higher now than it was in the MWP as well.
Why are you determined to remain WILFULLY IGNORANT ????
STOP DENYING SCIENCE, it makes you look like a moronic AGW cultist !!
Short term Antarctic sea ice level is trending UPWARD.
Why are you cherrypicking one year.?
No real scientist would do that, (Looks like you are trying to push some agenda of some sort.
Only up to 2012? See my other post on 2015 swing.
Andy
You can’t even read a graph
goes to 2014 , MORON !!!
Trend is upwards over 40 years
DENIAL is all you have!
Andy55, you must forgive him. After all, he is going blind.
Not andy
So the small-minded, cherry-picking twerp wants to focus on the effects of a KNOWN WEATHER EVENT..
(yes, child-mind, real scientists do know what caused most of the dip, and it had NOTHING to do with the farce called “climate change”)
… even though the extent has now pretty much caught up to most other years for this day of the year.
Pretty PATHETIC !!
One can only assume that he is trying to push some anti-human, anti-science agenda of some sort.
Result is though that Arctic is low but not really low and the Antarctic is really low and not recovering so far. Why?
It’s called an “interglacial” genius.
Not Andy (‘s BS)
Well it has been really fun tonight chatting about the poles and 2017 / Holocene
I want to go and watch Hurricane Irma now, but in response to Tony’s thread title of
I’d just like to point out the global ice amount from Jaxa
https://imgur.com/DJeoHSb
You can argue with me, but you cannot argue with that.
Bye!
Andy
Yep, cannot argue that there is an awful lot of ice for an interglacial. Now let’s focus on real issues, like adults.
Not Andy
Oh, and don’t get chaffed as you watch.
LOL!!!
+10,000
Best post all evening and well worthy on a blog called realclimatescience.
Well done. Good man.
Andy BSc MSc.
PS I am finally off now you will be glad to know. Sleep peacefully. :thumbsup:
Sorry Andy, but CW nailed it. You are a doomer, and this is your favorite form of porn.
Slink away, you earned it!
LOL
Oh! Almost forgot again…
Not andy
He did say his dog was behind him.
Each to their own, I guess, !!
You moron. That is mostly coming from the Antarctic dip from a major WEATHER event.
I suspect you do actually know that, but are still determined to continue to make a FOOL of yourself.
Antarctic sea ice extent is trending upward over nearly 40 years. Again, your anti-science DENIAL is showing.
Pity we can’t get data that shows its levels during first part of the Holocene,
Pretty sure it would show that Antarctic sea ice is also pretty much at its 10,000 year maximum, like Arctic sea ice is, and like Greenland ice mass is.
I said above
“After several years of increases in the Antarctic it flip flopped in late 2015 to low. ”
So you post a graph up to 2014 … why?
That’s just confirming what I posted. Show me 2015 and 2016 on there. The trend is still up, but the question is why the sudden change, as per my question earlier …
Ground hog day?
Back to the cyclone, less spin than you guys ;)
Andy BSc MSc
40 years is not ” several” and a one year dramatic storm caused drop is not a 40 year trend.
Cherry-picking one year drop, caused by KNOWN weather events…… in an otherwise upward trend.
You TRULY are a AGW suckophant, aren’t you, little andy.
Andy thinks letters behind his name makes him appear smart. The only thing that would make Andy appear smart at this point, would be admitting that there is no reason at all to place ice over human life, and then act upon that thought.
But all Andy has is store bought letters meant to disguise his ignorance. Poor Andy.
Not Andy BMF, El Conquistador, Digital Overlord
“but the question is why the sudden change,”
OMG, you really are an IGNORANT ASS, aren’t you.
This has been clearly explained by REAL scientists.
.. do some research, bonehead. !
How the f*** did you ever get out of junior high, let-alone do anything that allows for your pretence of any sort of science !!
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2017/09/Figure3.png
Trend is upward for past 40 years
GET OVER IT !!!
You two should get a sodden bed together.
Enjoy each other’s mindless attention-seeking.
Ys, griff , we all KNOW that the late 1970’s was an time of EXTREME HIGH Arctic sea ice.
We also know that there are MASSIVE BENFITS to sea ice dropping back even a small way towards the Holocene norm (MUCH lower than current)
Why do you continue to DENY the fact that the current levels are FAR higher than most of the rest of the current interglacial.
Why the continued LIES and DECEIT… and WHY the continued WILFUL DENIAL and WILFUL IGNORANCE??
Have you ever asked yourself what prompts you to portray yourself as being so wilfully ignorant??
Is it a disease?
Is it ATTENTION-SEEKING..
or are you just plain INCAPABLE of accepting reality?
Why the sudden change back to the Arctic , griff.
Seems that you do know that Antarctic sea ice has been on an upward trend for 40 years. but can’t face that fact.
Heck you may even know that it was WEATHER events that caused the reduction over the last couple of years.
Cyclone Irma
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic
Now that’s a vertical graph!
Hope people in Florida will be ok. For an Atlantic rather than Gulf hurricane this is really one of the all time biggest.
Sorry for off topic.
Andy
“You moron. That is mostly coming from the Antarctic dip from a major WEATHER event.”
What weather event?
Pray tell
Andy
Your ignorance is further brought to light… Do some research, bonehead !!
I thought you said you were a scientist, yet all you do is yap the comedic AGW line.
ZERO -SCIENCE.
Ignorance seems to be your only redeeming feature.
Latest from NSIDC:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
“Average sea ice extent for August 2017 ended up third lowest in the satellite record. Ice loss rates through August were variable, but slower overall than in recent years. Extensive areas of low concentration ice cover (40 to 70 percent) are still present across much of the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean.”
“While a record low minimum extent in the Arctic is unlikely this year, the ice edge in the Beaufort Sea is extremely far north. In parts of this region, the ice edge is farther north than at any time since the satellite record began in 1979. ”
“Summers dominated by low pressure, as has been the case for 2017, are generally not conducive to ice loss. Low pressure brings generally cool conditions and the cyclonic (counterclockwise) winds help spread the ice over a larger area. However, it appears that strong individual storms, such as the intense summer cyclone of 2012, may break up the ice and mix warm ocean waters into the sea ice, contributing to ice loss.”
Hey griff, did you know that the current level is above what it has been for 90-95% of the last 10,000 years ??
Or are you a CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER?
Or are you just being a LYING, DECEITFUL, MINDLESS, BED-WETTING ATTENTION-SEEKING TROLL !
“While a record low minimum extent in the Arctic is unlikely this year”
This is unlikely to happen any time in the next few decades or even centuries.
Current levels are still above 90-95% of the extent of the last 10,000 years.
Record low extent is ZERO, and we are currently only just below 5 Wadhams.
That is one HECK OF A LOT OF SEA ICE !!!
It seems that NSIDC are JUST AS IGNORANT as you are (is that even possible) or are deliberately DENYING science to push some sort of putrid, anti-human, anti-life AGENDA
Notice how much of the ice is currently more than 2m thick . . . https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnowcast.gif
Sorry, I should have used this one . . . https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2017090718_2017090800_046_arcticictn.001.gif