Much Ado About Nothing

“Sigh no more, ladies, sigh no more, Men were deceivers ever,- One foot in sea and one on shore, To one thing constant never.”

― William Shakespeare

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13 Responses to Much Ado About Nothing

  1. DR says:

    This is now being bandied about:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/03/15/the-first-climate-model-turns-50-and-predicted-global-warming-almost-perfectly/#fc5300c6614d

    Modeling the Earth’s climate is one of the most daunting, complicated tasks out there. If only we were more like the Moon, things would be easy. The Moon has no atmosphere, no oceans, no icecaps, no seasons, and no complicated flora and fauna to get in the way of simple radiative physics. No wonder it’s so challenging to model! In fact, if you google “climate models wrong”, eight of the first ten results showcase failure. But headlines are never as reliable as going to the scientific source itself, and the ultimate source, in this case, is the first accurate climate model ever: by Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. Wetherald. 50 years after their groundbreaking 1967 paper, the science can be robustly evaluated, and they got almost everything exactly right.

    • ЯΞ√ΩLUT↑☼N says:

      Almost everything exactly right.. up to this point.

      As far as GIGO modelling’s concerned, they might be more successful trying it on the colour swirls of a soap bubble, since total eclipses aren’t factored in there either.

    • AndyG55 says:

      NO. they did not.

      They are comparing to NOAA/GISS which has been SPECIFICALLY ADJUSTED to match the CO2 rise.

  2. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    We keep getting told there is back radiation from CO2 warming the atmosphere but when I measure the clear sky all my IR thermometer measures is the radiation coming from 5100 metres where the earth radiates its heat away to space 33.2 degrees C below the surface temperature. If it’s cloudy I measure the higher back radiation from the cloud which can almost be as high as the ground temperature.

    • Rud Istvan says:

      KV, as explained many times elsewhere, and in my ebooks, although backradiation exists from the ERL (effective radiating level) it does not warm. Warming comes only from incoming shortwave radiation, sunlight. AGW is about less radiative cooling in the longwave IR escaping to space, so there is a GHE induced imbalance between incoming warming and outgoing cooling. The backradiation IR you detect did not escape to space, but is still not evidence of the GHE imbalance. That has to be measured at TOA (top of atmosphere) by satellite as incoming SW minus outgoing SW (albedo relectance, about 31% ) minus outgoing IR, all corrected by frequncy (wavelength) for equivalent radiation energy content. The Earth will warm until thatnadditional warmth produces enough additional IR to restore the balance. That amount of additional warmth to a doubling of CO2 is known as the ECS (equilibrium climate sensitiviy. If it is low (1.5 ish) there is no problem. If it is high (CMIP5 model ensemble says 3.3) there may or may not be a problem depending on whose analysis you believe. Lomberg and Tol, no. IPCC, yes. The best observarional ECS estimates range from 1.45 to 1.5. The model ECS estimates are provably unreliable because the models can be shown wrong in other ways.

  3. Andy DC says:

    The temperature increase has been negligible, but the increase in fraud has been catastrophic.

  4. Gator says:

    You just don’t get it.

    It’s all about tipping points and positive feedback loops. Once that extra parking space has been paved, more infrastructure will need to be put into place to support the additional automobile and its occupants. That means more car dealerships, more gas stations, more tire and repair shops, more fast food, more slow food, additional liquor stores, Walmarts, housing, jobs, barbershops and beauty salons, Starbucks and Staples… where does it all end?! Paradise paved over.

    At least that is what the models all predict.

  5. GeologyJim says:

    EMERGENCY! EMERGENCY!!

    Call security! Those three people – yes, those three in row 22, section AB, are terrorist troublemakers! Throw them out of the arena!!!

    They, and only they, have the devilish power to cause tipping-point pan-de-monium in the entire audience – after which there will be runaway chaos, wailing, and gnashing of teeth, followed by species extinction, catastrophic storms, uncontrollable coastal flooding, droughts, infertile poley bears, crop failures, pestilence, raging forest fires, and other certain signs of Ar-ma-geddon!!, foretold by the Models.

    Or maybe they were just raising their hands to buy another beer.

    Per Emily Latella, “Oh, . . . never mind”

  6. Hi Tony. I’ve been enjoying your youtube videos very much, and find myself in agreement almost all the time, despite the fact that my politics tend toward the progressive end of the spectrum and I’ve voted Democrat all my life. You’re doing a great job, so thanks.

    I’ve done some writing on this topic as well, including a book titled “The Unsettled Science of Climate Change:A Primer for Critical Thinkers.” You can look for it at Amazon, under the pseudonym “Polar Vortex.” My latest effort takes the form of a couple blog posts that may surprise you, as I present an argument that totally debunks one of the key claims of the “scientists” promoting the AGW. Here’s the link: http://amoleintheground.blogspot.com/

    I think you’ll appreciate what I have to say and hope you’ll be interested in adding a comment or two.

  7. gregole says:

    Each year that passes with no flooded Manhattan, no polar-bear apocalypse, no ice-free anywhere, no snowless winter, no weather extreme any more or less extreme than historic records record, is another year the bed-wetting warmunists are made to look just a little bit sillier, a little bit shriller, a little bit stupider.

    And silly, shrill, and stupid they are. Perhaps we are reaching a silly-shrill-stupid tipping point.

    Branding CO2, the molecule of life itself, a pollutant, takes a special kind of industrial-strength stupid. And the (mostly exaggerated) ill-effects supposedly to come from slightly warmer weather; really far-fetched from the very beginning, where are they? Life is good. Life is getting better.

    Happy Easter. Happy Passover. God Bless.

  8. Winnipeg boy says:

    For the analogy: you wouldn’t actually be putting more people in there, just changing the color of the jersey. Even less noticable.

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