Celebrating Sixty Years Of Ice-Free Arctic

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

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47 Responses to Celebrating Sixty Years Of Ice-Free Arctic

  1. Phil. says:

    The lifetime of children born in 1958 still has some time to run.

    • Gator says:

      Really? LOL

      That’s what you take from yet another failed alarmist prediction?

      What color is the falling sky in your world, Phil? LOL

      You lefties are soooo entertaining.


      • Phil. says:

        TOM Gator I know reading comprehension isn’t your strong point.
        The article was written 60 years ago and said:
        “Even within the lifetime of our children the Arctic Ocean may open, enabling ships to sail over the North Pole,”
        Given US life expectancy is ~78 years that leaves a few years still to go before the prediction comes to pass.

      • Anon says:


        I thought about it some more and have to agree with Phil here.

        The record for longevity is supposedly a 160 years. So that pushes the date out the 2118, because we ought to be absolutely sure that no one is still alive from 1958.

        And with breakthroughs in medical technology, we could potentially extend the human lifespan out to 160 years, so it is not just a flight of fancy that the author was referring to 2118 as the date. (And I am not even addressing cryo-preservation here.)

        And then in the Bible there were folks like Enoch who lived to 430 years and even longer. So, it is possible that the author was a fundamental Christian literalist (not likely, but possible), so that would push the date out to 2388. And if we were talking Methuselah the date would be 2927.

        So we have proved Phil’s argument above. But as most ordinary folks don’t think this way, we can see why the CAGW campaign is falling on deaf ears. (lol)

        • Gator says:

          But as most ordinary folks don’t think this way, we can see why the CAGW campaign is falling on deaf ears.

          But, but, but… the model!!!

  2. Mrs Maam says:

    Phil’s right. Many people who were children in 1958 are still alive (and I think you once said you were born in 1957, Tony), so it’s still possible that the Arctic could become ice-free in their lifetimes.

    • Gator says:


      What a fool believes, and believes, and believes, and believes…

    • Disillusioned says:

      Phil and Mizz Sir:

      What part of, your ilk have been failing at climate predictions for a lifetime, is it that you do you not understand?

      So, I get it that 60 years isn’t long enough for you – that a lifetime is longer. So, let’s see if you can be pleased. Would you like for Tony to re-post failed predictions from 70 years ago? Or 80 years ago? You name the lifetime age.

      Salivating dogs don’t think things through very carefully.

      • Phil. says:

        Would you like for Tony to re-post failed predictions from 70 years ago? Or 80 years ago? You name the lifetime age.

        Personally I hope that it’s rather more than 78 years, my pension company and SSA seem to think it is.
        The point is that he posted a prediction that has not yet failed and gave a rather strange title to the post which implied that he didn’t understand the prediction “Celebrating Sixty Years Of Ice-Free Arctic”. White males born in 1960 had a life expectancy at birth of 67 years (females 74).

        • R Shearer says:

          To date, over the past 60 years, it has failed.

          There is essentially no chance that it will come to pass.

        • R2Dtoo says:

          How much was their life span shortened by the fact that they had to endure the “coming ice age” for the first 20 years? Some of the “experts” that predicted an ice age are still with us as well!

    • Jason Calley says:

      Phil is right, sixty years so far, but children are still living from 1958.

      Sadly, very few people read old poetry these days, but I am reminded of something by Oliver Wendell Holmes, the poem “The Wondeful One Hoss Shay”.

      Apparently, the Arctic icecap is the modern equivalent of the wonderful shay. It goes on and on and on, year after year with no appreciable change, until one day… WHAM! Thermodynamics be damned, it all falls to nothing in a moment!

      • Gator says:

        I could pick nits like Phil and say that many children alive sixty years ago are now long dead. And many more die each year. So the author was wrong. Not all of “our” children that were alive in 1958 may live to see an ice free Arctic. Maybe even none.

        Another failed alarmist prediction.

    • spike55 says:

      Maman… It was ice free in summer for much of the first 9000+ years of the current interglacial.

      We live in a very anomalously time in the Holocene..

      A time when Arctic sea ice is still in the top 10% of the last 10,000 years.

      A time only just a small bump out of the coldest period in 10,000 years.

  3. dee says:

    20 years ago NASA was saying that the average global temperature was 15°C, today their figures say that it’s 14.9°C.

    This drop in temperature over the last 20 years is in the midst of apparently relentless global warming and the many retrospective upward temperature adjustments for the period.

    “According to GISS, the global mean surface air temperature for that period was estimated to be 57 F (14 C).
    That would put the planet’s average surface temperature in 2017 at 58.62 F (14.9 C)”.


    “Without naturally occurring greenhouse gases, Earth’s average temperature would be near 0°F (or -18°C) instead of the much warmer 59°F (15°C).”

    “If there were no greenhouse effect, the Earth’s average surface temperature would be a very chilly -18°C (0°F) instead of the comfortable 15°C (59°F) that it is today.”


  4. czechlist says:

    Ah, MAY!
    One of the ubiquitous CAGW/Climate Change modifiers.
    Never a WILL writ large by the prophets of doom; At least not since Erlich’s epic failure.
    And then there is “…lifetime of our children..”? Very specific, huh?
    I have lived through Erhlich’s gloomy prophesies (wrong but at least specific) along with Y2K and recall that in the early ’90s there were medical “experts” predicting that AIDS COULD wipe us out. I won’t bother to list AGore’s nor Hansen’s failed forecasts.
    My area is currently flooding in the new normal of endless drought predicted by Hayhoe and others – with more “drought”on the way.
    THE SKY IS FALLING! darn sure is
    Now, during a current break in the drought, I gotta slug through my muddy garden.

    • Gator says:

      This is why the true believers are soooio precious! No matter how many times their go-to gurus get their dire predictions wrong, the believers never lose hope. LOL

      Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) started:

      1. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

      2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

      3. The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

      4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

      5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

      6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

      7. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.

      8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

      9. In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

      10. Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”

      11. Barry Commoner predicted that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.

      12. Paul Ehrlich chimed in, predicting in 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.

      13. Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out. (Note: According to the most recent CDC report, life expectancy in the US is 78.8 years).

      14. Ecologist Kenneth Watt declared, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”

      15. Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, published a chart in Scientific American that looked at metal reserves and estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990.

      16. Sen. Gaylord Nelson wrote in Look that, “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

      17. In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”

      18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

      Doomers. LOL

      • Disillusioned says:

        When I became disillusioned, I thought all I had to do was show the facts to my friends and they would see what I saw. Boy did I find out differently. More disillusionment.

        AGW believers have a special kind of blindness, caused by politics, peer pressure and shame. It’s a religious belief. It’s everything that honest science is not.

        • Gator says:

          I have a cousin who is married to an old white man. She recently said she will only vote for a woman candidate, regardless of her beliefs, because old white men are what is ruining this country.

          I wonder if she has any idea that she is an ageist racist sexist?

          • Disillusioned says:

            Or, whether she has any idea of the irony that she just said she is married to what she said is ruining this country.

      • Jason Calley says:

        Hey Gator. No. The answer is “no”, she has no idea, and nothing you or I could possibly tell her would change her mind.

        FYI, I have relatives just as bad.

      • Johansen says:

        That’s an amazing list, Gator. And at the time, 1970, the biggest advancements in pollution control were being implemented, the Environmental Protection Agency was formed, sewage treatment was being elevated to ‘secondary’ treatment all across the U.S., scrubbers/precipitators/filters were being installed on all smokestacks, nuclear power plants were being constructed left and right, etc.
        All their dire predictions were about 20-30 years behind the times. Just like Marx, who spent his entire working life in the British Library and never got out and saw the improvements which were gradually being implemented.
        “The greatest cataclysm in the history of man” sounds very Marx-ian. I’m convinced that’s what Ehrlich *wanted*

        • Gator says:

          If you liked that, you will love this…

          Testimony to Subcommittee on Energy and Environment
          Committee on Science, Space and Technology – March 31, 2011
          Professor J. Scott Armstrong, University of Pennsylvania, with Kesten C. Green, University of South Australia,
          and Willie Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

          The validity of the manmade global warming alarm requires the support of scientific forecasts of (1) a substantive long-term rise in global mean temperatures in the absence of regulations, (2) serious net harmful effects due to global warming, and (3) cost-effective regulations that would produce net beneficial effects versus alternatives such as doing nothing…

          We conducted a validation test of the IPCC forecasts based on the assumption that there would be no interventions. This test found that the errors for IPCC model long-term forecasts (91 to 100 years in the future) were 12.6 times larger than those from an evidence-based “no change” model.
          Based on our analyses, we concluded that the global warming alarm is an anti-scientific political movement.
          We then turned to the “structured analogies” method to forecast the likely outcomes of this movement. In this ongoing study, we have, to date, identified 26 historical alarmist movements. None of the forecasts for the analogous alarms proved correct. In the 25 alarms that called for government intervention, the government impost regulations in 23. None of the 23 interventions was effective and harm was caused by 20 of them.


          So not only are alarmists consistently wrong, but because of their agenda and ignorance, they are actually doing harm.

  5. Gator says:

    My local meteorologist reported that North America had the highest area of snow cover for the date today. I’ll have to see if I can look that up later, I’m working off my iPhone on a poor signal right now.

    Anyone else please feel free to fact check my weather man, I’m curious to know if what he said is correct.

  6. Gord says:

    Well, apparently they are having an EMERGENCY meeting in Ottawa to deal with the urgent IPCC report. I think Barbie said the Arctic has melted or something like that.
    The BS goes on and on.

  7. Griff says:

    and now it is thinner and its max and min extents are both lower than in 1958

    • Gator says:

      Even if that were true, the ice saw a massive expansion that ended in 1979. When did we start pumping large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere? And why do you hate poor brown people and Griff?

    • spike55 says:

      And the griffstir makes up CRAP yet again !!

      LYING, DECEITFUL little worm that he is.

  8. Marty KarjalaChewer says:

    Neurosis comes in many flavors, but the AGE hoax has left a terrible taste for many that do not suffer from the malady.
    The magical temperature control knob of man-made C02 is more akin to the human thought process control rheostat.
    Since this particular interglacial period will come to an end like all others, it is a wonder that the rabid left doesn’t mind the mass loss of life that will follow, human and animal.
    If the left and those that have been easily duped truly believe that AGW is the prime driver of troposheric temperature and care about their fellow human beings, they’d be calling for “Drill Baby Drill” and “Burn Baby Burn”.
    As we know, the end of this interglacial period will bring misery and mass death, and could it be that this would be looked at as a good thing?
    MAGA on brothers and sisters:-)

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