I put together a new python script for analyzing US temperature data. The code is much smaller than what I have previously released, but it is just as powerful for the most commonly used statistics. It also includes analysis of the new USHCN daily TOBS data – which is a complete mess. I will be blogging about it shortly.

You can get the code here, There are only three files :

get, USHCNDaily.py and US.list

After you download the code :

chmod 755 get ./get

That will download the entire US daily temperature record from NOAA USHCN. Then execute the program with commands like :

python3 USHCNDaily.py US.list states=MNIAMOWIILINOHMI months=05060708 max_target=89

That will calculate the temperature record for the Midwest (Minnesota, Iowa, etc.) , from May to August, with a target of 89 degrees (F) for calculating statistics. After it has completed, you will find a descriptively named csv file in the same directory – which you can then load into a spreadsheet.

I’m not planning on doing any python tutorials, but the code is very simple and is going to make life tough for people tampering with data and lying about the climate. If you don’t know how to install and run python, look here.

Fantastic! I’ll be trying this later. I am running Python 3.7.2. Any issues and I will post an update.

Seems to work for me Tony. Fairly quick on a 1Gbps Internet feed too!

Thanks!

Are Canadian, EU and AU data files available?

Thanks.

While analyzing temperature data to uncover data tampering is a useful pursuit toward ending the climate catastrophe scam, we need a knock-out punch, something the climate alarmists cannot refute, something which absolutely proves that their underlying premise for CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming) is fallacious.

Fortunately, I’ve got that knock-out punch.

———-

Here’s what we need to hit the climate alarmists with when they start bleating that CO2 is going to cause the planet to catastrophically warm.

The climate scientists, the UN IPCC and various US government-funded agencies claim that CO2 will cause catastrophic global warming, and the only remedy is to radically alter our economic system and our way of life.

They claim this occurs via the following mechanism: CO2 absorbs 14.98352 µm radiation, becomes vibrationally excited in the CO2{v21(1)} vibrational mode quantum state, then collides with another atmospheric molecule, whereupon that vibrational mode energy flows to translational mode energy of the other atmospheric molecule. Since we sense translational mode (kinetic) energy as temperature, this process purportedly raises atmospheric temperature. The climate catastrophists claim that CO2 is capable of causing catastrophic warming.

But what if they’re only telling the public half the story as means of pushing a narrative to achieve an end they otherwise would be unable to achieve? It turns out, that is exactly what they’ve done… and I can prove it.

I’m not talking about the “glaciers are growing”, “it’s cold outside”, “take a look at this chart” subjective type of ‘proof’ usually proffered in attempting to counter the climate alarmist claims… I’m talking about diving right down to the quantum level and utilizing particle physics to prove that the mechanism upon which the climate catastrophists hinge their entire multi-billion dollar per year scam does not and cannot occur… if an energetic process (catastrophic atmospheric warming) cannot occur at the quantum level, it most certainly cannot occur macroscopically.

The half of the story the public has been told, that CO2 causes warming, is a narrow and intentionally misconstrued truth hiding two much wider lies.

The truth is that CO2 can indeed cause warming via the mechanism described above… up to ~288 K and at low altitude. Above ~288 K and at low altitude, CO2 is a net atmospheric coolant. Above the tropopause, CO2 is a net atmospheric coolant at any temperature because collisional processes happen less often there due to low atmospheric density, so radiative processes dominate.

One wider lie that’s hiding behind that narrow and misconstrued truth is that the world must de-industrialize, get rid of capitalism and change our way of life… the climate change issue has been hijacked by socialists using it as a vehicle to push for a world-wide totalitarian government. They’ve openly admitted this.

Another wider lie that’s hiding behind that narrow and misconstrued truth is that we must richly fund the climate ‘scientists’ who are pushing the scam, and we must move to so-called ‘green’ power… hundreds of billions of dollars per year are being flushed down the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) toilet based upon this lie.

The full story: In an atmosphere sufficiently dense such that collisional energy transfer can significantly occur, all radiative molecules play the part of atmospheric coolants at and above the temperature at which the combined translational mode energy of two colliding molecules exceeds the lowest vibrational mode quantum state energy of the radiative molecule. Below this temperature, they act to warm the atmosphere via the mechanism the climate alarmists claim happens all the time, but if that warming mechanism occurs below the tropopause, the net result is an increase of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), which increases convection, which is a net cooling process.

In other words: Below ~288 K, CO2 does indeed cause warming via the mechanism described above. But above ~288 K, the translational mode energy of two colliding molecules is sufficient to begin significantly vibrationally exciting CO2, increasing the time duration during which CO2 is vibrationally excited and therefore the probability that the CO2 will radiatively emit. The conversion of translational mode to vibrational mode energy is, by definition, a cooling process. The emission of the resultant radiation to space is, by definition, a cooling process.

As CO2 concentration increases, the population of CO2 molecules able to become vibrationally excited increases, thus increasing the number of CO2 molecules able to radiatively emit, thus increasing photon flux, thus increasing energy emission to space.

As temperature increases, the population of vibrationally excited CO2 molecules increases, thus increasing the number of CO2 molecules able to radiatively emit, thus increasing photon flux, thus increasing energy emission to space.

This is why I state in the data below that CO2 becomes a net atmospheric coolant at approximately 288 K… the exact solution is near to impossible to calculate, given the nearly infinite number of angles of molecular collision, the equilibrium distribution of molecular speed, and the fact that atmospheric molecular composition varies spatially and temporally with altitude and water vapor concentration variations.

The data below utilizes particle physics first principles to nullify the CAGW hypothesis at the quantum level, leaving the climate catastrophists with absolutely no wiggle room… no matter how many pictures of sick polar bears they put up, no matter how many flawed computer models they cite, no matter how many graphs with cherry-picked date ranges and manipulated data they present… if a process (catastrophic atmospheric warming) cannot occur at the quantum level, it most certainly cannot occur macroscopically.

The data below destroys the underlying premise of CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming), and thereby destroys the underpinnings of their multi-billion dollar per year scam.

The data below peals the death knell for CAGW. You’re welcome.

———-

In dealing with solely translational mode energy and neglecting vibrational mode and rotational mode energy for the moment, the Equipartition Theorem states that molecules in thermal equilibrium have the same average energy associated with each of three independent degrees of freedom, equal to:

3/2 kT per molecule, where k = Boltzmann’s Constant

3/2 RT per mole, where R = gas constant

Thus the Equipartition Theorem equation:

KE_avg = 3/2 kT

serves well in the definition of kinetic energy (which we sense as temperature).

It does not do as well at defining the specific heat of polyatomic gases, simply because it does not take into account the increase of internal molecular energy via vibrational mode and rotational mode excitation. Energy imparted to the molecue via either photon absorption or collisional energetic exchange can excite those vibrational mode or rotational mode quantum states, increasing the total molecular energy E_tot, but not affecting temperature at all. Since we’re only looking at translational mode energy at the moment (and not specific heat); and internal molecular energy is not accounted for in measuring temperature (which is a measure of translational mode energy only), this long-known and well-proven equation fits our purpose.

Our thermometers are an instantaneous average of molecular kinetic energy. If they could respond fast enough to register every single molecule impinging upon the thermometer probe, we’d see temperature wildly jumping up and down, with a distribution equal to the Maxwell-Boltzmann Speed Distribution Function. In other words, at any given measured temperature, some molecules will be moving faster (higher temperature) and some slower (lower temperature), with an equilibrium distribution (Planckian) curve.

The Equipartition Theorem states that in Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium conditions all molecules, regardless of molecular weight, will have the same kinetic energy and therefore the same temperature. For higher atomic mass molecules, they’ll be moving slower; for lower atomic mass molecules, they’ll be moving faster; but their kinetic (translational mode) energy will all be the same at the same temperature.

Therefore, utilizing the equation above, at a temperature of 288 K, the average thermal energy of a molecule is 0.03722663337910374 eV. Again, this is the average… there is actually an equilibrium distribution of energies and thereby molecular speeds.

For CO2, with a molecular weight of 44.0095 amu, at 288 K the molecule will have:

Most Probable Speed {(2kT/m)^1/2} = 329.8802984961799 m/s

Mean Speed {(8kT/pm)^1/2} = 372.23005645833854 m/s

Effective (rms) Speed {(3kT/m)^1/2} = 404.0195258297897 m/s

For N2, with a molecular weight of 28.014 amu, at 288 K the molecule will have:

Most Probable Speed {(2kT/m)^1/2} = 413.46812435139907 m/s

Mean Speed {(8kT/pm)^1/2} = 466.5488177761755 m/s

Effective (rms) speed {(3kT/m)^1/2} = 506.3929647832758 m/s

But if those molecules are at the exact same temperature, they’ll have exactly the same translational mode energy.

This energy at exactly 288 K is equivalent to the energy of a 33.3050 µm photon.

If two molecules collide, their translational energy is cumulative, dependent upon angle of collision. In mathematically describing the kinematics of a binary molecular collision, one can consider the relative motion of the molecules in a spatially-fixed 6N-dimensional phase space frame of reference (lab frame) which consists of 3N spatial components and 3N velocity components, to avoid the vagaries of interpreting energy transfer considered from other reference frames.

Simplistically, for a head-on collision between only two molecules, this is described by the equation:

KE = (1/2 mv^2) [molecule 1] + (1/2 mv^2) [molecule 2]

The Maxwell-Boltzmann Speed Distribution Function, taking into account 3N spatial components and 3N velocity components:

https://i.imgur.com/0ZVflnN.png

You may surmise, “But at 288 K, the combined kinetic energy of two molecules in a head-on collision isn’t sufficient to excite CO2’s lowest vibrational mode quantum state! It requires the energy equivalent to a 14.98352 µm photon to vibrationally excite CO2, and the combined translational mode energy of two molecules colliding head-on at 288 K is only equivalent to the energy of a 16.6525 µm photon!”

True, but you’ve not taken into account some mitigating factors…

1) We’re not talking about just translational mode energy, we’re talking about E_tot, the total molecular energy, including translational mode, rotational mode, vibrational mode and electronic mode. At 288 K, nearly all CO2 molecules will be excited in the rotational mode quantum state, increasing CO2’s E_tot. The higher a molecule’s E_tot, the less total energy necessary to excite any of its other modes.

2) Further, the Boltzmann Factor shows that at 288 K, ~10.26671% of N2 molecules are in the N2{v1(1)} vibrationally excited state.

N2{v1(1)} (stretch) mode at 2345 cm-1 (4.26439 µm), correcting for anharmonicity, centrifugal distortion and vibro-rotational interaction

1 cm-1 = 11.9624 J mol-1

2345 cm-1 = 2345 * 11.9624 / 1000 = 28.051828 kJ mol-1

The Boltzmann factor at 288 K has the value 1 / (2805.1828 / 288R) = 0.10266710 which means that 10.26671% of N2 molecules are in the N2{v1(1)} vibrationally excited state.

Given that CO2 constitutes 0.041% of the atmosphere (410 ppm), and N2 constitutes 78.08% of the atmosphere (780800 ppm), this means that 80162.3936 ppm of N2 is vibrationally excited via t-v (translational-vibrational) processes at 288 K. You’ll note this equates to 195 times more vibrationally excited N2 molecules than all CO2 molecules (vibrationally excited or not).

Thus energy will flow from the higher-energy (and higher concentration) N2{v1(1)} molecules to vibrationally ground-state CO2{v20(0)} molecules, exciting the CO2 to its {v3(1)} vibrational mode, whereupon it can drop to its {v1(1)} or {v20(2)} vibrational modes by emission of 9.4 µm or 10.4 µm radiation (wavelength dependent upon isotopic composition of the CO2 molecules).

The energy flow from translational modes of molecules to N2 vibrational mode quantum states, then to CO2 vibrational mode quantum states, then to radiation constitutes a cooling process.

3) The Maxwell-Boltzmann Speed Distribution Function gives a wide translational mode equilibrium distribution. In order for CO2 to be vibrationally excited, it requires the energy equivalent to a 14.98352 µm photon, equating to a CO2 speed of 425.92936688660114 m/s or an N2 speed of 533.8549080851558 m/s.

Remember I wrote above:

———-

For CO2, with a molecular weight of 44.0095 amu, at 288 K the molecule will have:

Most Probable Speed {(2kT/m)^1/2} = 329.8802984961799 m/s

Mean Speed {(8kT/pm)^1/2} = 372.23005645833854 m/s

Effective (rms) Speed {(3kT/m)^1/2} = 404.0195258297897 m/s

For N2, with a molecular weight of 28.014 amu, at 288 K the molecule will have:

Most Probable Speed {(2kT/m)^1/2} = 413.46812435139907 m/s

Mean Speed {(8kT/pm)^1/2} = 466.5488177761755 m/s

Effective (rms) speed {(3kT/m)^1/2} = 506.3929647832758 m/s

———-

For CO2, the Boltzmann Factor probability of one of its molecules being at a speed of 425.92936688660114 m/s; and for N2, the Boltzmann Factor probability of one of its molecules being at a speed of 533.8549080851558 m/s is 0.8461 at 288 K. In other words, for every 100 molecules which are at the Most Probable Speed, another ~84 molecules will be at the speed necessary to vibrationally excite CO2.

Thus at ~288 K and higher temperature, the translational mode energy of atmospheric molecules begins to significantly vibrationally excite CO2, increasing the time duration during which CO2 is vibrationally excited and therefore the probability that the CO2 will radiatively emit. The conversion of translational mode to vibrational mode energy is, by definition, a cooling process. The emission of the resultant radiation to space is, by definition, a cooling process.

As CO2 concentration increases, the population of CO2 molecules able to become vibrationally excited increases, thus increasing the number of CO2 molecules able to radiatively emit, thus increasing photon flux, thus increasing energy emission to space.

As temperature increases, the population of vibrationally excited CO2 molecules increases, thus increasing the number of CO2 molecules able to radiatively emit, thus increasing photon flux, thus increasing energy emission to space.

This is why I state that CO2 becomes a net atmospheric coolant at approximately 288 K… the exact solution is near to impossible to calculate, given the nearly infinite number of angles of molecular collision, the equilibrium distribution of molecular speed, and the fact that atmospheric molecular composition varies spatially and temporally with altitude and water vapor concentration variations.

https://i.imgur.com/v8adCi2.png

Particle physics first principles disprove the CAGW hypothesis. Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming is a physical impossibility.

In an atmosphere sufficiently dense such that collisional energy transfer can significantly occur, all radiative molecules play the part of atmospheric coolants at and above the temperature at which the combined translational mode energy of two colliding molecules exceeds the lowest vibrational mode quantum state energy of the radiative molecule. Below this temperature, they act to warm the atmosphere via the mechanism the climate alarmists claim happens all the time, but if that warming mechanism occurs below the tropopause, the net result is an increase of Convective Available Potential Energy, which increases convection, which is a net cooling process.

Hi Tony

I really appreciate all you do and wanted to try the code out for myself. As it happens I have a software background including 15 years of professional python programming. I was wondering if it would be ok if I contributed some time refactoring your code to make it more modular and getting it up on github.com and as a package on pypi.org that people can pip install?