It all depends on the weather over the next few weeks. People who play the ice extent forecast game might as well go to Vegas and roll the ice. No one on this side of heaven has any idea where the ice edge will end up.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
Google Search
-
Recent Posts
- “American Summers Are Starting to Feel Like Winter”
- Joker And Midnight Toker
- Cheering Crowds
- Understanding Flood Mechanisms
- Extreme Weather
- 70C At Lisbon
- Grok Defending The Climate Scam
- “Earlier Than Usual”
- Perfect Correlation
- Elon’s Hockey Stick
- Latest Climate News
- “Climate dread is everywhere”
- “The Atmosphere Is ‘Thirstier.’”
- Skynet Becomes Self Aware
- “We Have To Vote For It So That You Can See What’s In It”
- Diversity Is Our Strength
- “even within the lifetime of our children”
- 60 Years Of Progress in London
- The Anti-Greta
- “a persistent concern”
- Deadliest US Tornado Days
- The Other Side Of The Pond
- “HEMI V8 Roars Back”
- Big Pharma Sales Tool
- Your Tax Dollars At Work
Recent Comments
- Independent on “American Summers Are Starting to Feel Like Winter”
- arn on “American Summers Are Starting to Feel Like Winter”
- conrad ziefle on Grok Defending The Climate Scam
- ThurmanZhou on Grok Defending The Climate Scam
- Disillusioned on Joker And Midnight Toker
- Bob G on Cheering Crowds
- GW on Cheering Crowds
- Bob G on Cheering Crowds
- GW on Cheering Crowds
- Bob G on Joker And Midnight Toker
Totally agree, it does depend on the weather and nothing is set in stone yet.
We’ll have a better guess after it goes past 6 million. If it goes past 6 million before or around mid August then it should be under 5. If it goes past 6 million late August then 5.5 to 6m. If it goes past 6m in early August then probably closer to 4-4.5m
That’s my best estimate anyhow 😀
Andy
no one has a friggin clue.
You can use past years as a metric of future ice, unless CO2 changes everything and we have unprecedented death-spirals* in the “Antartic” this year.
* a term frequently used to indicate numbers greater than 2007
I know, I bet on 5.3 a long time ago on WUWT.
I don’t actually recall, but I think I guessed 5.6 or somewhere thereabouts on the WUWT pool.
My spreadsheet has us coming in at a minimum daily value of 4382637 km^2 for JAXA extent (above 2007, but closer to 2007 than 2008).
Utilizing the entire CT area dataset instead of just 2002 onwards yields a prediction of 4536869 km^2, which is closer to 2008 than 2007.
-Scott
It isn’t a statistical problem. It is a weather forecasting problem.
I predict the ice will be at or below 32F.