It all depends on the weather over the next few weeks. People who play the ice extent forecast game might as well go to Vegas and roll the ice. No one on this side of heaven has any idea where the ice edge will end up.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Totally agree, it does depend on the weather and nothing is set in stone yet.
We’ll have a better guess after it goes past 6 million. If it goes past 6 million before or around mid August then it should be under 5. If it goes past 6 million late August then 5.5 to 6m. If it goes past 6m in early August then probably closer to 4-4.5m
That’s my best estimate anyhow 😀
Andy
no one has a friggin clue.
You can use past years as a metric of future ice, unless CO2 changes everything and we have unprecedented death-spirals* in the “Antartic” this year.
* a term frequently used to indicate numbers greater than 2007
I know, I bet on 5.3 a long time ago on WUWT.
I don’t actually recall, but I think I guessed 5.6 or somewhere thereabouts on the WUWT pool.
My spreadsheet has us coming in at a minimum daily value of 4382637 km^2 for JAXA extent (above 2007, but closer to 2007 than 2008).
Utilizing the entire CT area dataset instead of just 2002 onwards yields a prediction of 4536869 km^2, which is closer to 2008 than 2007.
-Scott
It isn’t a statistical problem. It is a weather forecasting problem.
I predict the ice will be at or below 32F.