Enough Brainless Lies From Government Agencies

Posted on November 18, 2015 by Tony Heller

The BBC presenter was quick to point out that we’re almost at this dangerous boundary—earlier this month the UK’s Met Office predicted global temperatures will rise more than 1?C by the end of 2015. The record-breaking heat of the last 10 months suggests 2015 will be Earth’s warmest year in history
Tol now suggests the idea that the world would likely benefit from anything up to 2?C of warming as “a bit too optimistic.”

Even a noted climate contrarian is now worried about global warming – Quartz

Even using  wildly fraudulent Phil Jones/ Met Office data, this is nowhere near the warmest year in history, and there is nothing dangerous about warming. Earth was much warmer 6,000 years ago, and civilization thrived in a “climate optimum.”

Paleoclimatologists have long suspected that the “middle Holocene” or a period roughly from 7,000 to 5,000 years ago, was warmer than the present day. Terms like the Alti-thermal or Hypsi-thermal or Climatic Optimum

polarbigb

NOAA Paleoclimatology Global Warming – The Data

The Middle East was fertile with temperatures much warmer than now.

7,000 years ago (5000 BC): late Neolithic civilizations, invention of the wheel and spread of proto-writing. The oldest golden treasure found in Varna Necropolis, Bulgaria.

6,000 years ago (4000 BC): Civilizations develop in the Mesopotamia/Fertile crescent region (around the location of modern day Iraq). The american mastodon goes extinct. Earliest supposed dates for the domestication of the horse and for the domestication of the chicken.

Timeline of human prehistory – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

These flaming morons claim that 2C is catastrophic and man-made, when historical evidence shows that it is completely natural and more conducive to civilization.

About Tony Heller

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27 Responses to Enough Brainless Lies From Government Agencies

  1. sfx2020 says:
    November 18, 2015 at 9:51 am

    “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
    – Winston Churchill

    Reply
  2. Martin Smith says:
    November 18, 2015 at 9:55 am

    Steven, you are trying to use data on regional warming to represent global warming. It’s wrong. The data do show that 2015 is the warmest year on record.

    [SG : Anyone who has spent three minutes studying global warming theory knows that polar amplification is an essential component]

    Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      November 18, 2015 at 12:13 pm

      Ice cores from the Freemont Glacier show it went from Little Ice Age cold to Modern Warming warm in the ten years between 1845 and 1855. Naturally. Which shows M.S is FOS.

      ABSTRACT
      An ice core removed from the Upper Fremont Glacier in Wyoming provides evidence for abrupt climate change during the mid-1800s….

      At a depth of 152 m the refined age-depth profile shows good agreement (1736±10 A.D.) with the 14C age date (1729±95 A.D.). The ?18O profile of the Upper Fremont Glacier (UFG) ice core indicates a change in climate known as the Little Ice Age (LIA)….

      At this depth, the age-depth profile predicts an age of 1845 A.D. Results indicate the termination of the LIA was abrupt with a major climatic shift to warmer temperatures around 1845 A.D. and continuing to present day. Prediction limits (error bars) calculated for the profile ages are ±10 years (90% confidence level). Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present-day climate is about 10 years, suggesting the LIA termination in alpine regions of central North America may have occurred on a relatively short (decadal) timescale.
      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999JD901095/full

      The only way the climate can head at this point in the Holocene is towards COLD!

      A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic D18O records
      Lisiecki & Raymo (2005)
      ABSTRACT
      We present a 5.3-Myr stack (the ‘‘LR04’’ stack) of benthic d18O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic d18O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka,…

      RESULTS
      Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA Community Members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with d18O values below 3.6% for 20 kyr, from 398 – 418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6% for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398– 418 ka as from 250–650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the 21 June insolation minimum at 65°N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence….

      The present ‘warm spike’ is a blip on a generally COOLING curve.

      http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png

      Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      November 18, 2015 at 12:20 pm

      “The lesson from the last interglacial “greenhouse” in the Bahamas is that the closing of that interval brought sea-level changes that were rapid and extreme. This has prompted the remark that between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”!

      Quaternary Science literature says:
      #1. It is NOT going to be a ‘tipping point’ towards the warm phase.
      #2. As the climate approaches the glacial/interglacial change point you get a climatic “madhouse”

      So Anthropogenic Global Warming need not apply. Nature is quite capable of causing warm spells all by here little lonesome.

      *******************************************
      “without anthropogenic influence both MIS-19 and MIS-11 suffered 3 thermal excursions** right at their very ends. The youngest of each was the stronger, right before each dropped into the next ice age… Whereas MIS-19 may not satisfy everyone as an interglacial belonging to the present eccentricity-paced major climate cycles, it also occurred at a 400kyr eccentricity minimum cycle, just like MIS-11 (the Holsteinian) did and MIS-1 (the Holocene) is doing now.” — William McClenney, geologist.

      **Thermal excursions is science speak for warm periods Martin so the modern warm period is normal and right on schedule.

      William has been closely following the literature in Quaternary Science on interglacial-glacial transitions. He was nice enough to ship me over three hundred papers on the subject.

      ***************************************
      The actual debate over climate is whether or not the Holocene will match MIS 11 or MIS 19.

      Again from William McClenney with much reference to the Quaternary Science literature.

      …“the precessional alignment would suggest that the Holocene is nearing its end, while the obliquity alignment would suggest it has another 12,000 years to run its course.” (Tzedakis, 2010)

      “In essence, this alignment represents a synchronization of the obliquity signal instead of precession, which according to Masson-Delmotte et al. (2006) may be more appropriate, because of the role of obliquity changes in triggering deglaciation especially during intervals of weak precessional variations, as is the case for MIS 11 and 1.” (Tzedakis, 2010)…

      We are either going to have another “extended interglacial”, like MIS-11 did, or we won’t, like MIS-19 didn’t, given that like them we are once again at a 400kyr eccentricity minimum.

      There is a particularly prickly issue that either case is stuck with:

      If the Holocene is to “go-long” like MIS-11 did, what could we possibly deploy to get us through the several thousand years of cold between the first and second MIS-11 insolation peaks… [Even if the Holocene duplicates MIS 11 it ain’t going to be warm, Martin]

      “The lesson from the last interglacial “greenhouse” in the Bahamas is that the closing of that interval brought sea-level changes that were rapid and extreme. This has prompted the remark that between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”!

      … I do not think anyone really knows how many bouts of climatic “madhouse” the end Holocene is supposed to experience, or whether or not we can detect, ….as yet unseen future anthropogenic climate “signal” …especially amidst up to three thermal excursions which range from 1 to almost 2 orders of magnitude larger than AGW climatic “madhouse” peaks….

      Reply
      • Martin Smith says:
        November 18, 2015 at 1:50 pm

        Those happened at different times, gator. It was not global.

        Reply
        • gator69 says:
          November 18, 2015 at 2:13 pm

          Bullshit. This image shows that the LIA and MWP were global.

          You are a lying little troll.

        • Stewart Pid says:
          November 18, 2015 at 2:28 pm

          Martin pull something from your ass to prove gator wrong … something uniquely stupid like you always do 😉

        • Martin Smith says:
          November 18, 2015 at 2:45 pm

          No, it doesn’t, gator. The events depicted in the map didn’t all happen at the same time.

        • gator69 says:
          November 18, 2015 at 2:52 pm

          They depict the LIA and MWP, which did not happen together, but did happen globally.

          Quit squirming and lying, the LIA and MWP were global events, as this graphic clearly illustrates.

        • Gail Combs says:
          November 18, 2015 at 3:48 pm

          Gator, Martin’s utter IGNORANCE of how the climate works is truly astounding.

          “Those happened at different times, gator. It was not global.”

          Lets look at the IMPLICATIONS, shall we Martin? If they didn’t happen at the same time then it is indications of ‘the bipolar seesaw’

          So what does the the bipolar seesaw tell you?

          …We propose that the interval between the “terminal” oscillation of the bipolar seesaw, preceding an interglacial, and its first major reactivation represents a period of minimum extension of ice sheets away from coastlines…

          …thus, the first major reactivation of the bipolar seesaw would probably constitute an indication that the transition to a glacial state had already taken place….

          …Thus, glacial inception occurred ~3 kyr before the onset of significant bipolar-seesaw variability…
          Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?
          P. C. Tzedakis, E.W. Wolff, L. C. Skinner, V. Brovkin, D. A. Hodell, J. F. McManus, and D. Raynaud

    • Rico L says:
      November 19, 2015 at 2:27 am

      Sorry, just to clarify, what is “polar amplification”? – thanks

      Reply
  3. AndyG55 says:
    November 18, 2015 at 10:22 am

    Also look up terms like “Neoglaciation”

    And Martin, the ONLY data that shows 2015 as being likely to be the warmest is the MASSIVELY CORRUPTED NOAA /Gavin Schmidt/Tom Karl fabrication.

    The REA:L DATA from RSS (run by warmistas) and UAH shows that 2015 is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to be the warmest..

    You are LYING and committing intentional deception.. ie FRAUD , Martin.

    Reply
  4. Gail Combs says:
    November 18, 2015 at 11:31 am

    TOL, A noted climate contrarian????

    If I recall he is like Bjørn Lomborg, another economist who believes in Global Warming but thinks it is not a crisis. He was coordinating lead author for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.

    This quote from his website shows his position:
    “The UK could be a leader in international climate policy if it would demonstrate that greenhouse gas emissions can be cut substantially without causing economic pain. Current UK climate policy shows the opposite: Climate policy can cause real hardship without making a dent in emissions.” — UK Parliamentary Inquiry into the IPCC

    The Guardian however is nothing but a propaganda rag that prints stuff that would make the National Enquirer blush.
    A September, 2014 post at Richard Tol blogspot
    Stern2.0 takes climate policy analysis to a new level of exaggeration

    There is a new Stern Review. Colloquially known as Stern2.0, the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate released its report last Tuesday. Since his 2006 review, Nick Stern has been regularly in the news, claiming it is worse than we thought. The new report fits the mould.

    The summary was released before the main report. Rejecting the Scottish Enlightenment, we are invited to believe its findings without inspecting the evidence. It seems, though, that Lord Brentford has produced another work of far-fetched fiction. Stern2.0 makes three claims, none of which stand up: Climate policy stimulates economic growth; climate change is a threat to economic growth; and an international treaty is the way forward.

    Tol’s running battle with the Guardian and it’s LIES.

    I imagine we will shortly see his comments on that newest Groniad article. In the mean time he has won his running battle with Environmental Research Letters and his attempts to get something published about Cook’s 97% paper. The man is nothing if not tenatious. No wonder the Groniad tries to smear him with the ‘denier’ label as was done to Bjørn Lomborg. No one is allowed to question the Gospel according to Saint Gore.

    The Guardian rules that the Guardian is almost flawless

    The Guardian has written a series of articles about me and my work, a veritable smear campaign.

    I complained and was surprised by the foot-dragging of Guardian staff until, tada, the Press Complaints Commission (PCC) ceased to exist and the Guardian became self-regulated.*

    Bob Ward’s smear campaign

    Mr Robert ET Ward BSc, employed by the London School of Economics and Political Science to promote the research of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, has engaged in a smear campaign against me.

    At least, according to the Daily Mail.

    Mr Ward was not so pleased with that characterization of his work, and complained to the Independent Press Standards Organization.

    Yesterday, IPSO ruled that a “smear campaign” is a perfectly fine description of Mr Ward’s work.

    My response to Mr Ward’s work is here.

    Professor John P. Abraham highlighted Mr Ward’s work in the Guardian. See my response. Unfortunately, the Guardian is not regulated by IPSO. The Guardian is regulated by the Guardian.

    The Guardian

    It is ironic that the left-of-centre newspaper the Guardian has withdrawn from press regulation. They appear to think that companies are in the best position to judge their own behaviour. Only people who are rich enough to afford a lawsuit are protected against any falsehoods that this newspaper may decide to print.

    The Guardian has also long abandoned the journalistic principle that both sides of a story need to be heard.

    In its latest installment of a series of hatchet jobs, the Guardian published an article by Mr Robert ET Ward BSc, Lord Stern’s PR man. The central claim of the article is, simply, false.

    Reply
  5. Pathway says:
    November 18, 2015 at 9:52 pm

    I guess when Fred and Barney were riding around in the Flintmobile with all those dinosaurs chasing them they just thought it was the hottest year ever on earth. Some people just have the intellect of a fungus.

    Reply

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