Melting Kevin’s Magic Red Crayon

I posted this picture yesterday showing that most of Greenland, Canada, the US and Mexico were forecast to be cold.

Kevin McDonald accused me of cherry picking the US (apparently we recently annexed Greenland, Canada and Mexico) – and he posted this hot red map.

Let’s take a closer look at Kevin’s map, by increasing the saturation on the colors. Cold blue suddenly appears all over the planet! Humans don’t see blue as prominently as they see red.

Now lets turn the map into an equal area projection, so that the size of the poles isn’t distorted. Almost half of the planet is below normal temperature! The Earth isn’t burning up after all.

 

And finally, it is scientifically meaningless to average Arctic winter temperatures with mid-latitude temperatures, because of the latent heat of water. A small change in heat produces a large swing in polar winter temperature, whereas it requires much more energy change to produce the same size swing in temperatures in the mid-latitudes. When snow falls in Florida, the condensation and freezing of water releases a lot of heat into the atmosphere. But temperatures in the Arctic winter are far below the freezing point of water, so a swing from -25C to -20C produces no change in latent heat. Thus a deep dip in the jet stream causes the average global temperature to rise, even though there has been no change in the overall heat content of the atmosphere.  The whole surface temperature methodology employed by NASA/NOAA is fatally flawed to produce a bogus warming bias. And a lot of the recent changes NASA has been making to their methodology have been based on increasingly weighting Arctic temperatures.  Exactly the wrong thing to do scientifically.

Most of the claimed rise in global temperatures is due to a rise in Arctic winter temperatures, which is due primarily to the deep dips in the jet stream we have been getting in recent years. These jet stream dips increase Arctic temperatures a lot, while decreasing mid-latitude temperatures by a much smaller amount. Global warming is junk science.

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27 Responses to Melting Kevin’s Magic Red Crayon

  1. Great post! Thanks! You are the only source I can trust that avoids me being fooled by climate change witch doctors

  2. Neil Corrigan says:

    Tony,
    Thank you for exposing the truth, these fraudsters are so full of themselves that they actually believe their own crap. They literally take more heed in models than they do reality. MWP being a great example.

  3. DAVE says:

    I assume you did not get a Happy Holidays note from Gavin again this year. Keep up the good work!

  4. RAH says:

    I don’t really give a hoot when they start this kind of thing. Any other time they would be looking at some place on earth having weather that is out of the ordinary and claiming it’s because of “climate change”. The Alarmists, like the establishment media lost any credibility long ago! It has been evident for a long time that deep dark red is their favorite color even when showing a temperature anomaly of 7 deg above the average in a place that is usually frozen wasteland.

  5. The Iconoclast says:

    I too was howling about them using a Mercator projection. Great idea saturating the colors more, and pointing out the edges don’t match!

  6. CheshireRed says:

    These coloured maps have long-since lost any credibility as they’re used for blatant propaganda. Amazing how they always have strong red, orange and yellows to indicate how we’re ‘burning up’. Completely untrustworthy.

  7. Gerald Machnee says:

    Where are the thermometers in the Arctic??

  8. GeologyJim says:

    As in this case, it’s so curious how consistently the “red-hot” areas coincide with locations with little/no actual measured temperatures (Arctic, Africa, Antarctica, Siberia, etc.).

    All the while the oceans (70% of the globe) are largely anomaly-free

    “Curiouser and Curiouser!”

    • RAH says:

      Besides the fact that their map above is model generated! Give me actual data and numbers and not some pretty little computer generated graphic based on a fantasy.

  9. Steven Fraser says:

    Tony, What was the base period used for your chart? IMO curious whether he did his own cherry-pick by using 1979-2000.

    And, what GeologyJim said.

  10. Pathway says:

    Joe Bastardi at weatherbell had an interesting presentation yesterday on arctic warming and water vapor.

  11. Paul says:

    Thanks for the best explanation I have seen about why you should not average Arctic temperatures with lower latitudes.

    It is apples and pears, but I have found it hard to put into words

  12. AndyG55 says:

    http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

    Has the equal area projections

    Base period says 1971 – 2000.. (which is full of nonsense data)

    …. remember that the late 1970s was the coldest period in the last 80 years.

    And any data before satellites is pure guesswork and infilling.

  13. Joe says:

    Great post, it is a mini-lesson, really.
    Not understanding how the atmosphere works, I didn’t know these jet stream dips actually cause the global temperature to rise. Always thought it causes some cooling.
    So that means actual global cooling would cause the poles would get colder… right?

  14. stephen says:

    When the day comes that southern Victoria Australia is warmer than northwest Western Australia well that will be a day to remember.

  15. Freddy Boom-Boom says:

    So, who is Kevin McDonald and why should I (or anyone) care what he posts? Is he media personality, or some such?

  16. Gary Palmgren says:

    Another good post highlighting the difference between tropical, temperate, and polar air masses. You once showed the average of the trends calculated for each station. I have long thought that this is the only way to look for climate change based on temperature data. Averaging extremely dry polar air mass temperatures with tropical air mass temperatures is illogical and unscientific.

  17. Ziff House says:

    ”Thus a deep dip in the jet stream causes the average global temperature to rise, even though there has been no change in the overall heat content of the atmosphere. ”

    I’m confused , i thought some heat went into space in the winter ?

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