Arctic Shipping Update

Sixty years ago, Arctic sea ice was two meters thick, and climate experts predicted that ships would soon be sailing over the North Pole.

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

Sixty years later, the ice is still two meters thick, and both the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage are blocked with 10+ foot thick ice.

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180423.png (1337×1113)

Bill Gray always pointed out that climate was controlled by ocean circulation patterns, not greenhouse gases. He was correct, which is why VP Al Gore cut off his funding in 1994.

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32 Responses to Arctic Shipping Update

  1. Griff says:

    duh! Because it is the end of winter… not the sailing season.

    come the end of august the NW passage is very likely to be open to any and all forms of shipping, for passage without icebreaker assistance, as has been the case every year since 2009… last year excepted when there was a central section where some ice remained. Even then, we may attribute that to the clearance of previously fast frozen passages between islands which allowed thicker ice to be pushed into the region.

    On the other side of the arctic ocean the Northern sea route is now open for a longer period of the year than it has been since this first saw use in the early soviet days. furthermore, since the ice recedes further and is thinner, ships can both route their course further from the coast and the newer strengthened ships can cut through the thinner ice.

    Russia has planned an extension of shipping in the region, thanks entirely to the sea ice decline. the new LNG tankers are already sailing…

    One last point: the sea ice of course shows a pattern of decline in addition to the natural cycles of the region…

    • tonyheller says:

      It is very likely that Griff will be hiding again at the end of summer.

    • arn says:

      Congratulations for ignoring the chart at the bottom.
      That way you avoid to understand that the ‘everdying’ arctic melt
      is just part of a natural cycle-
      the only difference:Now this common stuff is sold as ‘extreme’..
      Just as your off the mill cat. 3 hurricane with its off the mill damage
      is now a climate bomb causing epic damage(+using tricks like:ignoring inflation and increased urbanisation).
      The usual old nothing sold as new sensation.
      Ask yourself which native americans were able to enter the american continents and then visualise the ice extent then you may get a clou how much arctic ice has disappeared since then.

      One day you will find out why the least reliable science on planet earth is the noisiest.
      It has to be to compensate the lack of competence and quality so that money can flow into their direction.

    • Gator says:

      One last point: the sea ice of course shows a pattern of decline in addition to the natural cycles of the region…

      Really Ms Griff? Then you guys have it all figured out. Great!

      1- List all climate forcings, order them from most to least effectual, and then quantify them all.

      2- Please provide even one peer reviewed paper that refutes natural variability as the cause of recent, or any, global climate changes.

      There is nothing unusual or unprecedented about our climate, or how we got here. For 4,500,000,000 years climates have always changed, naturally. This means there has been a set precedent, and the burden of proof falls on natural climate change deniers like yourself.

    • Latitude says:

      How do you manage to be the first post….every time?
      ….and why are you not posting on WUWT any more?

      • Gator says:

        How do you manage to be the first post…

        Me Griff said she has lots of down time at her employer. In her defense, the market for mom’s basement editorialists is way down.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Last thing they want is griff anywhere near actual work.

          But his mental condition means that they can’t fire him.

    • R. Shearer says:

      I only need to look out the window at the falling snow to know that it’s the “end” of winter.

    • AndyG55 says:

      When was the last time someone sailed a small wooden boat down the Prince of Wales Strait , griff. ?

      Or any boat for that matter.

      Nope, still having to skulk down the bottom through Cambridge bay.

    • AndyG55 says:

      “thanks entirely to the sea ice decline.”

      NO, its thanks to MASSIVE new ICE-BREAKING transport ships.

      That’s what they were build for.

      STOP LYING, griff. !!

      one last point to counter griff’s LIES

      DMI volume shows ZERO decline in 10 years as the AMO prepares to start heading back downwards.

      • NavarreAggie says:

        “as the AMO prepares to start heading back downwards.”

        Where did you find that information? I’d like to see it, if you can provide it.


        • Disillusioned says:

          Andy will probably reference something else. But here’s a start:

          When you get there, click on “Oceans”
          Then click on “AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) Index.” It’s a known cycle. Global temps seem to follow it rather closely.

          • NavarreAggie says:

            Thanks. I’m familiar with the AMO, but I was wondering on which data he was basing his conclusion. I had not seen a recent update of the AMO index, so I was curious what it was doing for him to conclude impending cooling.

          • Disillusioned says:


            Sorry. I don’t know what he’s going by. Most AMO graphs show the warm side of the cycle is perhaps closer to exhaustion than not.

            The last peak was around 1950. Apparently it has an average of ~70 years (50-90, so the ‘preparation’ could last till 2030 or 2040). I think there’s some bouncing around at the top left to go, as it “prepares to start heading downward” – and would not be surprised if that takes the rest of the next decade. JMHO

        • Caleb says:

          I have an AMO chart included in my latest post. It is the NOAA version, and shows a remarkable dive in January and February and then a slight recovery in March. We are still on the “warm” side of the cycle but colder than last year. If the Quiet Sun hasn’t thrown everything out of whack we are in the final few years of the “warm” side of a cycle that takes around sixty years to complete.

          Bill Gray devised a different AMO cycle, I think incorporating barometric pressure, which results in a different graph. I don’t know where to find that one.

          • Disillusioned says:

            Caleb – Yes, I am interested to see if the quiet Sun has an impact on the length of this positive/warm side of the AMO.

    • Brad says:

      Will the climate prophet james hansen be true? This summer it should be completely ice free. You believe in fairy tales.

    • MrGrimNasty says:

      “One last point: the sea ice of course shows a pattern of decline in addition to the natural cycles of the region…”

      Dear Griff, that is your personal belief, not science or fact. No one knows what the natural cycles or longer term trends are that precisely. However best science tells us that there was probably less ice than today for thousands of years, in at least 2 periods, in the last 10000 years.

      You claimed before “Elsewhere the commander of the Skate documented dodging areas of ice hanging down fifty or sixty feet below the surface. ”

      So what? A crewman reported it was 6-8ft all over and they found some 2-3ft to punch though. (Why would you want to misrepresent colliding ice floes forcing ice into the depths as an indication of general thickness?)

      • Caleb says:

        It should also be remembered that 9/10th of an iceberg is under water. Therefore when a pressure ridge sticks up high enough to block a man’s view, let us say seven feet, it can be sticking downward 63 feet. And that is only considering sea-ice. Subs also have to watch out for the larger bergs that calve off glaciers.

        If you paid attention to pictures sent in the past from sources such as the o-buoys or yachts such as the “Northabout”, one thing you notice is that the big bergs from glaciers can wander far from the nearest glacier, for example to the coast of Siberia. A sub commander has to always pay attention.

    • Mark Fife says:

      My answer is the same as always. Duh, your records start right in the middle of a cold period in the US and Europe. Same as the 1930s through the 1940s. Nothing exciting Is really happening other than some folks getting seriously wealthy selling trash science.

      Here, check this out. It is really time to put this bollocks to bed.

  2. Caleb says:

    I’ve been lurking over at a half decent Alarmist site to see what they make of the thicker ice. Boy oh boy do they ever dislike this site! One Alarmist got soundly chastised for even mentioning Tony’s name, even to meanly ridicule it, and his link to this site was of course swiftly snipped. Then “Snow White” AKA Jim Hunt sounded off with his typical blather, making it fairly obvious our years of sweating and slaving, attempting to educate the ding-bat, have been completely in vain. He describes Tony as 100% incorrect 100% of the time, and so on and so forth. So it is pretty obvious that, even if we can’t get a thing through his thick skull, we have him flustered.

    In case you wonder why I lurk there, it is because, while they are strangely blind to thickening ice, they have twenty twenty vision regarding any polynyas or leads of open water, and therefore can supply me with useful information. After all, I am not afraid of the facts.

    I did get rubbed the wrong way when reading one fellow, who likely is a virgin living in his Mom’s basement, go on and on about “the grandchildren”. I happened to just have come from holding my eight hour old grandson, and the pretentious audacity of this blithering fool daring to talk about “caring” supplied me with some energy. Not that I wasted my time commenting at that site. I saved my raving for a post of my own.

    • Brad says:

      They are all brainwashed by the official people or the media. None of them have any evidence and follow those instances like a pack of sheeple.

    • Robertv says:

      No Longer Allowed Outside

    • tonyheller says:

      Many skeptic sites hate me too, because I don’t pretend that climate science has something to do with science. I get my real science/engineering fix at work, and don’t need fake climate science as a hobby.

      • Caleb says:

        You do great work. I’m grateful. Hang in there.

        At the risk of sounding like I suffer from delusions of grandure, I think Skeptics are a bit like the prophets of old. They get a lot of flak because they are over the target. When I think of how Will Gray was treated I think of how Jeremiah was thrown into a cistern full of mud. Also Jeremiah one time preached at the temple and the head priest promptly put him in stocks. He then laments to God that it is so bad, telling the truth, that he is just going to keep his mouth shut. But when he tried the Truth is like a “fire in his bones”. So he has to speak out.

        I haven’t been thrown into a cistern full of mud yet, although debating “Snow White” comes close.

  3. AndyG55 says:

    I would like you all to think carefully about one of the REAL problems facing the future of the planet.

    Over the next 50 years or so, it is estimated that the Earth’s population could grow by some 5 billion.

    I assume that these extra people will require to be fed.

    Now, all food on this planet, be it meat, vegetables, grains, fruit etc is ultimately dependant on one single chemical reaction.

    That chemical reaction is photosynthesis.

    Photosynthesis requires 3 basic ingredients. Sunlight, H2O and CO2.

    We are stuck with how much sunlight we have, and with good planning can generally get enough fresh H2O (even if it requires desalination)

    This raises the BIG question……

    HOW are we going to raise the atmospheric CO2 concentration far enough to feed these extra 5 billion or so people ?

    Thankfully, China and India are doing their bit, helping to fund coal fired power stations and increasing the CO2 re-establishment, but other countries need to wake up to the reality of the situation, and stop this incredibly STUPID anti-CO2 agenda.

    Realise that CO2 is the basis of ALL LIFE ON EARTH,

    …and that the current level is still dangerously near the survival baseline.

    • R. Shearer says:

      The planet will be fine.

      With regard to CO2, there are enough fossil fuels for 200 or more years and hopefully other viable energy sources will be developed, and these will be used to generate acids to CO2 from carbonates when needed.

      In the meantime, the battle is against those that want to limit and raise the price of energy and life itself.

    • neal s says:

      AndyG55 asks “HOW are we going to raise the atmospheric CO2 concentration far enough to feed these extra 5 billion or so people ?”

      I do believe there are also some places where there is liquefied CO2 deep in the oceans or some other bodies of water.

      What if a pipe was constructed and lowered in the ocean in a place where there is some liquefied CO2, and water was pumped out. The pipe has perforations in the last few sections that wind up nearest the ocean floor. Some weights are also attached to the bottom end of the pipe via some cables. Some floats are attached near the top end of the pipe, but below the ocean surface.

      When the bottom end of pipe hits a portion of the ocean floor where there are reserves of liquefied CO2, we start pumping water out of the top end of the tube which is now well enough above the surface such that swells do not put water back into it as we begin to pump the water out.

      At some point the rising level of liquid CO2 would reach a point where the pressure become less than that required to keep it liquid and a change of state will likely occur. Bubbles of CO2 will rise and there may be enough of them to carry some of the water up and out of the top end of the pipe.

      I also expect that if we keep pumping long enough, we will eventually start getting a stream of CO2 coming from the top end of the pipe. I also imagine we can stop pumping, and that the stream will continue on its own as long as there are liquid CO2 reserves at the bottom end of the pipe, and the perforations do not get plugged up with debris. This would be a CO2 fountain.

      Such deep ocean CO2 pipes that spew out CO2 without requiring any additional ongoing power, could increase the atmospheric CO2 levels. It might even be possible to harness some power from their operation.

      I suspect this might be a way of greatly increasing atmospheric CO2 without having to burn through lots of fuel and without reducing atmospheric Oxygen to gain the increase in CO2.

      I would like to see someone who is rich and who has NOT bought into the CAGW lie, actually put this idea into use. The efforts to sequester CO2 are wastes of time and energy and resources. Having many tons of CO2 being added non-stop without burning fossil fuels may convince those who are trying to sequester CO2, that such efforts are futile.

    • AndyG55 says:

      As Robert says, I think eventually, once this anti-CO2 nonsense disappears, then at some stage the world will either be growing copious amounts of food in CO2 enhanced greenhouses,

      The real bulk food supply can only ever be open air, so they will be using new energy sources, thorium? to release CO2 from carbonate rocks… and being PAID to do it.

    • Caleb says:

      The population “bomb” is largely fiction. Where people have hope their children will survive large families have become rare. For example Mexico has gone from six-child families to two-child families.

      If you look at history large families often seem to have two main reasons:

      1.) Many hands are needed on a family farm.

      2.) So many children die that a couple can have ten and only two live to support them in their old age.

      If we create security in the third world birth rates immediately drop.

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