Iceball Earth 2020

At current rates of Arctic sea ice growth, the entire Earth will be completely covered with ice no later than July, 2020.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

My prediction was made using the Nobel Prize winning Climate Science™ linear extrapolation, which showed the Arctic would be ice-free in 2014.

Wayback Machine

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

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49 Responses to Iceball Earth 2020

  1. Disillusioned says:

    Ah, yes. The Maslowski Method of Climate Prognostication. He’s been so accurate over the years!

  2. Bob Hoye says:

    “linear extrapolation”.
    Good one–I’ve used “tangential extrapolation”.
    That’s in the world of investments and economics.
    The slope of the tangent records the emotions of the forecaster at the instant the forecast is made.
    In a boom the tangent is straight up and the opposite in a bust.

  3. Frank K. says:

    I drove home last night in a blinding snow storm here in New Hampshire. Had about an inch or so on the ground this morning at my house. This is perhaps the earliest snow I’ve seen here in 20 years. And apparently, according to forecasts, there is more to come by the end of the month… :-/

    • Rah says:

      I’m up in Bolton, ON just north of Toronto and have seem my first snow of the season. Light but it’s the real deal.

      • Bob Hoye says:

        The bigger Great Lakes, Superior, Michigan and Huron are some 4 F cooler than at this date in 2017 and 2016. That’s surface temp and in late August the difference was some 6 to 8 degrees.
        So the “headline” heat in your part of the world last summer was not as hot as touted,
        It looks like they will freeze earlier than usual.

        • Rah says:

          The highs during the day were not that hot. It was the low temps at night being much warmer than usual in August and September that drove up the numbers.

          The lake most important to this driver is Erie. Cooler surface water temp translates to less severe lake effect snow.

          • Phil. says:

            Yes Rah, that early freeze cuts that lake effect snow. Some friends of mine who live up there had some huge accumulations a few years ago when it was a late freeze. Can’t be any fun driving up there at that time of year?

        • AZ1971 says:

          Just FYI for the other readers, that information is available here.

          It’s been a while since I’ve checked the GLERL website; I didn’t realize that the Great Lakes were that much colder this year than they have been for years … but when you think of how much rain has fallen over the late summer and autumn in their basins, it’s not that surprising. The hottest waters get flushed downstream when all that runoff flows in.

        • Steven Fraser says:

          And, all this flows (slowly) into the St. Lawrence and from there into the Labrador Sea and North Atlantic.

          BTW, its a lovely, smooth cruise in July… Montreal on out.

  4. Gator says:

    An alarmist and his new bride…

    • arn says:

      That’s Liz Taylor on the right,right?

      btw,one can not get more scientific than hockeystick.That’s the holy grail of climate science.

  5. Phil. says:

    Maslowski projected the trend over the most recent 10 years and said:
    “If this trend persists the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free by ~2013!”
    Tony projected the trend over the last 24 hrs and posts that if that rate is continued for the next 21 months then the earth will be covered by ice. Something of a misuse of reductio ad absurd.

    • Gerald Machnee says:

      Phil: The whole CAGW forecasting is **ad absurd** or whatever term you want to use. It does not matter if it is 24 hours or 10 years. The Arctic Ice is on a 60 to 70 year cycle. So you have to get that through your head first.

      • Anon says:

        Tony, you should not be posting absurd things like that. The government pays good money to thousands of researchers to forecast the effects of CAGW. You have neither the experience or the research grant money to do these types of forecasts. You need to get that through your head first.

        If you want to learn something, here is a professional government funded example of a proper forecast:

        Climate change study predicts refugees fleeing into Antarctica

        Climate change will force refugees to move to Antarctica by 2030, researchers have predicted.

        Refugees are expected to move to Antarctica because of the rising temperatures that will see the population of the continent increase to 3.5 million people by 2040.

        *This ought to be alarming to everyone. 3.5 million is the current population of the state of Connecticut. And they are going to start arriving in only 11 years. Imagine the infrastructure that needs to be built and the cost of it!!! So we should be focused on this effort and not be distracted by absurd posts from Tony.

        • Gator says:

          It’s worse than we thought!

          A (Not Quite) Complete List Of Things Supposedly
          Caused By Global Warming

          Acne , Longer plane flights , agricultural land increase , Afghan poppies destroyed , Africa devastated , Africa in conflict , African aid threatened , African summer frost , aggressive weeds , More Toxic Poison Ivy , air pressure changes , airport malaria , Agulhas current , Alaska reshaped , moves , allergy season longer , alligators in the Thames , Alps melting , Amazon a desert , American dream end , amphibians breeding earlier (or not) , anaphylactic reactions to bee stings , ancient forests dramatically changed , animals head for the hills , animals shrink , Antarctic grass flourishes , Antarctic ice grows , Antarctic ice shrinks , Antarctic sea life at risk , anxiety treatment , algal blooms , archaeological sites threatened , Arab Spring , Arctic bogs melt , Arctic in bloom , Arctic ice free , Arctic ice melt faster , Arctic lakes disappear , Arctic tundra to burn , Arctic warming (not) , Atlantic less salty , Atlantic more salty , atmospheric circulation modified , attack of the killer jellyfish , avalanches reduced , avalanches increased , Baghdad snow , Bahrain under water , bananas grow , barbarisation , beer shortage , beetle infestation , bet for $10,000 , better beer , big melt faster , billion dollar research projects , billion homeless , billions face risk , billions of deaths , bird distributions change , bird loss accelerating , birds shrinking , bird strikes , bird visitors drop , birds confused , birds decline (Wales) , birds driven north , birds return early , bittern boom ends , blackbirds stop singing , blackbirds threatened , Black Hawk down , blood contaminated , blue mussels return , bluetongue , brain eating amoebae , brains shrink , bridge collapse (Minneapolis) , Britain one big city , Smaller loaves of Bread , Britain Siberian , brothels struggle , brown Ireland , bubonic plague , budget increases , Buddhist temple threatened , building collapse , building season extension , bushfires , business risks , butterflies move north , camel deaths , cancer deaths in England , cannibalism , cannibalism again , caterpillar biomass shift , cave paintings threatened , childhood insomnia , Cholera , circumcision in decline , cirrus disappearance , civil unrest , cloud increase , coast beauty spots lost , cockroach migration , coffee threatened , cold climate creatures survive , cold spells (Australia) , cold wave (India) , computer models , conferences , conflict , conflict with Russia , consumers foot the bill , coral bleaching , coral fish suffer , coral reefs dying , coral reefs grow , coral reefs shrink , coral reefs twilight , Cabbage Shortage , cost of trillions , cougar attacks , crabgrass menace , cradle of civilisation threatened , creatures move uphill , crime increase , crocodile sex , crops devastated , crumbling roads, buildings and sewage systems , curriculum change , cyclones (Australia) , danger to kid’s health , Darfur , Dartford Warbler plague , death rate increase (US) , deaths to reach 6 million , Dengue hemorrhagic fever , depression , depressed PETS! , desert advance , desert retreat , destruction of the environment , disappearance of coastal cities , disasters , diseases move from animals to humans , diseases move north , dog disease , Dolomites collapse , dozen deadly diseases , Drop in birth rates , drought , ducks and geese decline , dust bowl in the corn belt , early marriages , early spring , earlier pollen season , Earth biodiversity crisis , Earth dying , Earth even hotter , Earth light dimming , Earth lopsided , Earth melting , Earth morbid fever , Earth on fast track , Earth past point of no return , Earth slowing down , Earth slowing down 2 , Earth spins faster , Earth spins faster 2 , Earth to explode , Earth’s poles shift , earth upside down , earthquakes , Specifically the 2015 Nepal earthquake , earthquakes redux , earthquakes redux 2 , Egypt revolt , El Niño intensification , end of the world as we know it , erosion , emerging infections , encephalitis , English villages lost , equality threatened , Europe simultaneously baking and freezing , eutrophication , evolution accelerating , expansion of university climate groups ,


          human , civilisation , logic , Colony Collapse Disorder (Bees dying) , Inuit , smallest butterfly , cod , ladybirds , pikas , polar bears , make polar bears eat their cubs , possums , walrus , toads , plants , salmon , trout , wild flowers , woodlice , a million species , half of all animal and plant species , mountain species , not polar bears , barrier reef , leaches , salamanders , tropical insects)

          experts muzzled , extreme changes to California , fading fall foliage , fainting , famine , farmers benefit , farmers go under , farm output boost , fashion disaster , fever , figurehead sacked , fir cone bonanza , fish bigger , fish catches drop , fish downsize , fish catches rise , fish deaf , fish get lost , fish head north , fish stocks at risk , fish stocks decline , five million illnesses , flames stoked , flesh eating disease , flood patterns change , floods , floods of beaches and cities , flood of migrants , flood preparation for crisis , Florida economic decline , flowers in peril , fog (more) in San Francisco , fog (less) in San Francisco , food poisoning , food prices rise , food prices soar , food security threat (SA) , football team migration , footpath erosion , forest decline , forest expansion , frog with extra heads , frostbite , frost damage increased , frosts , fungi fruitful , fungi invasion , games change , Garden of Eden wilts , geese decline in Hampshire , genetic diversity decline , gene pools slashed , giant oysters invade , giant pythons invade , giant squid migrate , gingerbread houses collapse , glacial earthquakes , glacial retreat , glacial growth , glacier grows (California) , glacier wrapped , global cooling , global dimming , glowing clouds , golf course to drown , golf Masters wrecked , grandstanding , grasslands wetter , Great Barrier Reef 95% dead , Great Lakes drop , great tits cope , greening of the North , Grey whales lose weight , Gulf Stream failure , habitat loss , haggis threatened , Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome , harmful algae , harvest increase , harvest shrinkage , hay fever epidemic , health affected , health of children harmed , health risks , heart disease , heart attacks and strokes (Australia) , heat waves , hibernation affected , hibernation ends too soon , hibernation ends too late , high court debates , Hitler , HIV epidemic , homeless 50 million , hornets , horses shrink , human development faces unprecedented reversal , human fertility reduced , human health risk , human race oblivion , hurricanes , hurricane reduction , hurricanes fewer , hurricanes not , hydropower problems , hyperthermia deaths , ice age , ice sheet growth , ice sheet shrinkage , icebergs , illegal immigration , illness and death , inclement weather , India drowning , infrastructure failure (Canada) , industry threatened , infectious diseases , nflation in China , insect explosion , insurance premium rises , Inuit displacement , Inuit poisoned , Inuit suing , invasion of cats , invasion of crabgrass , invasion of herons , invasion of jellyfish , invasion of king crabs , invasion of midges , island disappears , islands sinking , Creation of ISIS , itchier poison ivy , jellyfish explosion , jets fall from sky , jet stream drifts north , Kew Gardens taxed , kidney stones , kidney stones again , killer cornflakes , killing us , kitten boom , koalas under threat , krill decline , lake and stream productivity decline , lake empties , lake shrinking and growing , landslides , landslides of ice at 140 mph , lawsuits increase , lawsuit successful , lawyers’ income increased (surprise surprise!) , lawyers want more , legionnaires’ surge , lives saved , lizards change sex , Loch Ness monster dead , Locust plagues suppressed , Longer wprk breaks , Lopsided Earth , lush growth in rain forests , Malaria , mammoth dung melt , mango harvest fails , Maple production advanced , Maple syrup shortage , marine diseases , marine food chain decimated , Meaching (end of the world) , Mediterranean rises , megacryometeors , Melanoma , Melanoma decline , Mental health of farmers , meteors from space , methane emissions from plants , methane burps , methane runaway , melting permafrost , Middle Kingdom convulses , migration , migration difficult (birds) , migratory birds huge losses , microbes to decompose soil carbon more rapidly , minorities hit , monkeys on the move , Mont Blanc grows , monuments imperiled , moose dying , more bad air days , more research needed , mortality increased , mountain (Everest) shrinking , mountaineers fears , mountains break up , mountains green and flowering , mountains taller , mortality lower , murder higher , Mutate humans , Myanmar cyclone , narwhals at risk , National security implications , native wildlife overwhelmed , natural disasters quadruple , new islands , next ice age , NFL threatened , Nile delta damaged , noctilucent clouds , no effect in India , Northwest Passage opened , nuclear plants bloom , oaks dying , oaks move north , ocean acidification , ocean acidification faster , ocean dead zones unleashed , ocean deserts expand , ocean waves speed up , oceans noisier , opera house to be destroyed , outdoor hockey threatened , ozone repair slowed , ozone rise , Pacific dead zone , penguin chicks frozen , personal carbon rationing , pest outbreaks , pests increase , phenology shifts , plankton blooms , plankton destabilised , plants lose protein , plants march north , plants move uphill , polar bears aggressive , polar bears cannibalistic , polar bears deaf , polar bears drowning , polar bears eating themselves, , polar tours scrapped , popcorn rise , porpoise astray , profits collapse , prostitution , prostitution (again) , psychiatric illness , puffin decline , radars taken out , railroad tracks deformed , rainfall increase , rape wave , refugees , refugees again , reindeer endangered , release of ancient frozen viruses , resorts disappear , rice threatened , rice yields crash , rift on Capitol Hill , rioting and nuclear war , Rise and Fall of Rome , river flow impacted , rivers raised , roads wear out , robins rampant , rocky peaks crack apart , roof of the world a desert ,rooftop bars , Ross river disease , ruins ruined , Russia under pressure , salinity reduction , salinity increase , Salmonella , Salmon Decline , satellites accelerate , school closures , sea level rise , sea level rise faster , seals mating more , sewer bills rise , severe thunderstorms , sex change , sexual promiscuity , shark attacks , sharks booming , sharks moving north , sheep shrink , shop closures , short-nosed dogs endangered , shrinking ponds , shrinking shrine , ski resorts threatened , skin cancer , slow death , smaller brains , smog , snowfall increase , snowfall heavy , soaring food prices , societal collapse , soil change , songbirds change eating habits , sour grapes , space problem , spectacular orchids , spiders invade Scotland , squid aggressive giants , squid population explosion , squid tamed , squirrels reproduce earlier , stingray invasion , storms wetter , stormwater drains stressed , street crime to increase , subsidence , suicide , swordfish in the Baltic , Tabasco tragedy , taxes , tectonic plate movement , teenage drinking , terrorism , terrorism again , threat to peace , ticks move northward (Sweden) , tides rise , tigers eat people , tomatoes rot , tornado outbreak , tourism increase , trade barriers , trade winds weakened , traffic jams , transportation threatened , tree foliage increase (UK) , tree growth slowed , trees in trouble , trees less colourful , trees more colourful , trees lush , tropics expansion , tropopause raised , truffle shortage , truffles down , turtles crash , Turbulence in air travel , turtle feminised , turtles lay earlier , UFO sightings , UK coastal impact , UK Katrina , uprooted – 6 million , Vampire bats , Vampire moths , Venice flooded , violin decline , volcanic eruptions , volcanic eruptions redux , Iceland volcano eruption , walrus pups orphaned , walrus stampede , war , war between US and Canada , wars over water , wars sparked , wars threaten billions , wasps , water bills double , water scarcity (20% of increase) , water stress , weather out of its mind , weather patterns awry , Western aid cancelled out , West Nile fever , whales lose weight , whales move north , whales wiped out , wheat yields crushed in Australia , wildfires , wind shift , wind reduced , wine – harm to Australian industry , wine industry damage (California) , wine industry disaster (France) , wine – more English , wine industry disaster (US) , wine – more English , wine – England too hot , wine -German boon , wine – no more French , wine passé (Napa) , wine stronger , winters in Britain colder , winter in Britain dead , witchcraft executions , wolves eat more moose , wolves eat less , workers laid off , World at war , World War 4 , World bankruptcy , World in crisis , World in flames , Yellow fever

          Alarmists have discovered the God Molecule.

    • spike55 says:

      ALL your comments are “reduced to being absurd”, phlop,

      but you still make them.

      Why do you continuously make a manifest fool of yourself ?

      Or don’t you realise you are doing it !!

  6. Phil. says:

    Should be ad absurdam spell checker strikes again.

    • Gator says:

      And again!

      In logic, reductio ad absurdum (Latin for “reduction to absurdity”), also known as argumentum ad absurdum (Latin for “argument to absurdity”) or the appeal to extremes, is a form of argument that attempts either to disprove a statement by showing it inevitably leads to a ridiculous, absurd, or impractical conclusion, or to prove one by showing that if it were not true, the result would be absurd or impossible.[1][2] Traced back to classical Greek philosophy in Aristotle’s Prior Analytics[2] (Greek: ἡ εἰς τὸ ἀδύνατον ἀπόδειξις ‘demonstration to the impossible’, 62b), this technique has been used throughout history in both formal mathematical and philosophical reasoning, as well as in debate.

      I would say Tony’s post is the perfect example. But then I can spell, I am not a religious zealot, and I know that without the leadership of Republicans the 15th Amendment and The Voting Rights Act of 1965 would never have passed.

      • Phil. says:

        Yes the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that was the result of LBJ telling his AG to draft “the goddamndest, toughest voting rights act that you can”. The Act was introduced two days after LBJ addressed both houses of Congress on the subject. The Act was sponsored by Mansfield and Dirksen with 64 co-sponsors (total 46 Dems, 20 Repubs). Mansfield prevented the legislation being blocked in committee and the senate passed the bill by a majority of 77-19 with only senators representing Southern states voting against it. In the house the Republicans introduced an alternative bill in attempt to defeat the Voting Rights Act (co-sponsor Gerald Ford) but it was defeated. Certainly Republican support helped pass the Act but to say it was Republican leadership is a stretch. Support for the bill was bipartisan and opposition was basically from the south and not on party lines.

        • Gator says:

          That’s a really hand wavy way of saying I was right, but I’ll take it.

          Phil, you really need to learn the art of brevity.

    • Cornelius says:

      Try ‘ad absurdum’.

      Maslowski was guilty of the ad absurdum fallacy with their ridiculous prediction.

      • Phil. says:

        No it was a reasonable approach to use a ten year average, subject to the usual uncertainties, his main point was that models in use at that time greatly underestimated the rate of decrease in sea ice compared with measurements. It wasn’t a prediction, he said “If this trend persists the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free by ~2013!”
        Note he didn’t say he thought it was likely and the use of the exclamation point indicates a degree of scepticism.
        Tony’s attempt to use a reductio ad absurdum argument is flawed by reducing the timescale to the daily value, which is of course why he did it. As I said it was a misuse of the technique.

        • Gator says:

          Wrongway Phil strikes out again! (note the use of an exclamation point does not indicate any skepticism whatsoever) LOL

          “Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said.

          What a fool believes! LOL

        • Taphonomic says:

          If this trend does not persist the Arctic Ocean will not become ice-free by ~2013!

          Yeah, when did you ever see a climate scientist make a not-a-prediction like that?

          • Anon says:

            That is very interesting! The art of careful word-smithing!

            Paul Ehrlich: The Population Bomb 1968:

            ‘Collapse of civilization is a near certainty within decades’…

            If this trend persists the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free by ~2013!”

            Designed to take in the gullible, no doubt. Trump on the other hand, with decades of deal making experience, picks up those kinds of words immediately, while the rest of us fall for it and buy the book or panic about the Arctic being free of ice. I guess that is why he is the Prez and we are not.

        • Gerald Machnee says:

          **It wasn’t a prediction, he said “If this trend persists the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free by ~2013!”
          Note he didn’t say he thought it was likely and the use of the exclamation point indicates a degree of scepticism.**
          Better to have kept his mouth shut than make any foolish prediction or statement or non-forecast or thinking out loud. Got the picture Phil???

          • Phil. says:

            Thinking out loud is what you do when making research presentations at a research workshop which is what Maslowski was doing. The main point he was making was that the models that were then in use underestimated the loss of ice. He attributed this to Arctic ocean-ice-atm feedbacks not being represented realistically in climate models. He said that oceanic heat advection/storage has contributed significant forcing (>60%) to local sea ice melt during the previous decade. He showed that extrapolation of extent would go to zero by about 2050. However he also showed that volume was decreasing at ~2.5x the rate of extent and if that continued ice-free would occur much earlier. Of course the latter point was the only part of the presentation that received publicity.

          • Gator says:

            I hear Bigfoot hunters expect to find a squatch by the year 2050, maybe earlier if they find one sooner.

    • Gator says:

      In logic, reductio ad absurdum (Latin for “reduction to absurdity”), also known as argumentum ad absurdum (Latin for “argument to absurdity”) or the appeal to extremes, is a form of argument that attempts either to disprove a statement by showing it inevitably leads to a ridiculous, absurd, or impractical conclusion

      I’d say Tony nailed it.

    • Stewart Pid says:

      Phil – spell check is your enema!!

      • Rah says:

        That fellow really needs one. I’m beginning to think he has chronic constipation.

      • Phil. says:

        It doesn’t do to well with foreign languages, such as Latin and Welsh. It’s actually ‘a pain in the ass’ rather than an enema. I didn’t notice it had changed it until too late.

  7. Norilsk says:

    Does this mean we are all going to die sooner than 12 years from now?

    • arn says:

      No,because we already died a dozen times in the last 20 years.
      Got killed by all those global warming armageddons-
      but we refuse to acceppt it.

  8. Les Johnson says:

    An interesting reconstruction of arctic ice extent here. At the very least, its been in decline since 1960. It may have been in decline since the 1920s or even 1900s.

    • spike55 says:

      Here is a more accurate reconstruction, one that actually matches Arctic temperatures quite well.

      Also matches newspaper and other reports of decreased sea ice around 1940-1958

      The graph you linked is a AGW based fabrication..

      It shows that Arctic Sea Ice is NOT driven by Arctic temperature..

      Thus, it destroys the use of Arctic sea ice as a link to any AGW

      • AndyDC says:

        So Arctic sea ice is higher now than it was in 1940 according to your graph. Hardly a death spiral, definitely within the range of natural variability. Without their blatant cherry picks, the alarmists have absolutely nothing!

      • Phil. says:

        Here is a more accurate reconstruction, one that actually matches Arctic temperatures quite well.

        As your source says: “Alekseev et al. (2016) recently used Arctic summer surface air temperatures as a direct (inverse) proxy for September Arctic sea ice extent by applying a simple linear regression relationship.”
        “However, because the Alekseev et al. (2016) reconstruction is essentially an inverse Arctic summer temperature index, it cannot be used for studying the relationship between Arctic sea ice extent and surface air tempera- tures outside the satellite era (as that would lead to circular logic).”

        How shocking, a graph which is calculated from temperature actually matches Arctic temperatures quite well. Who’d have thought it!

  9. frederik wisse says:

    As with CO2 , whose influence dissipates logarithmically with rising concentrations as with ice ,where a sinusoide may describe reality better than any linear model , the IPCC models are showing a lack of understanding mother nature . Any computer modeling is crap , worthless or garbage without the proper understanding of how our universe was construed . Thank you Tony for ridiculing of the overpaid socalled scientists .

  10. DCA says:

    “Iceball Earth”

    Probably not in 2020.

    But – given that “iceball” accurately describes 80% of the last half-million years – eventually!

  11. Ice Age 2.0 says:

    Haha! I love it. Too bad most people fail to see that what is being presented as fact is horrifically false. When these alarmists get their “predictions” wrong, they are nowhere in sight. When they do show up, they gloss over reality. Thanks for sharing the truth.

  12. Dan Z says:

    Why does NSIDC ice chart use interquartile and interdecile ranges instead of the 2 standard deviations that I thought was more appropriate to although I’m no statistician.

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