The Climate Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight

NOAA got everything exactly backwards with their winter forecast.

Winter Outlook favors warmer temperatures for much of U.S. | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Last3mTDeptUS.png (688×531)

Winter Outlook favors warmer temperatures for much of U.S. | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Last3mPNormUS.png (688×531)

They can’t forecast three months out, but are 97% certain about their forecast for 100 years from now.  Because, settled science.

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21 Responses to The Climate Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight

  1. Anto says:

    And that’s always been the main point. If you promote a stock-picking software program which promises the punters the movements in the Dow Jones over the next week/month/year, they put you in jail as fraud. Predict the weather 100 years in advance? Well, so long as it’s global catastrophe you’ll get a full professorship and few million in funding.

    Predict nothing too bad and you’ll be shunned and drummer out of the profession.


  2. John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia says:

    Of course, it will be the warmest year evah!

  3. arn says:

    They are 97% of the time right with their forcasts.

    The problem is that climate deniers simply can not keep up with the speed of the moving goalposts the experts use with their shortterm predictions.

  4. Al Shelton says:

    Why won’t Trump drain the NOAA/NASA swamp ???

  5. rah says:

    Joe Bastardi and the gang at weatherbell were also off. Their advanced winter forecast called for the greatest cold anomaly to be in the SE US and it turned out the opposite. But Joe doesn’t claim to know what the climate will be decades into the future like the government agencies do and fessed up to the error.

    Now Joe and the weatherbell gang have been forecasting the US tornado season and the Atlantic hurricane season to be less active than average and I’m not buying that either, especially concerning the tornadoes. Not so sure about the Atlantic Hurricane season because this El Nino seems to be inclined to stick around and the reversed Pacific trades will result in shear conditions as long as it hangs on. I’m inclined to believe right now that though we may have an average hurricane season over all we may see below average as far as landfalls on the US mainland.

    • McLovin' says:

      Joe B is a stand-up-guy, which is why he fesses up. But though he missed the call on the S.E., the rest of his east coast was pretty good and his midwest forecast was nearly spot on. For my money, he and the team at are the best out there.

  6. Theyouk says:

    Hi from Sacramento, Tony.

    Given that the Yolo Bypass is flowing at 56,700 CFS at present, most surrounding fields have feet of standing water (some intentionally for rice farming, others just b/c we are awash in water), we are releasing water to the sea we can’t store, and there are likely tens of millions of acre-feet of water perched as snow in the Sierras, I am forced to ask…

    “Just how much effing water does it take to move the needle on the Palmer Drought Severity Index?”

  7. Bob Hoye says:

    Great Lakes Total Ice Cover.
    As of March 9, each year.
    2019: 80.0%—2018: 28.7%—2017: 6.2%.
    As of February 14:
    As the song from 1944 is titled:
    “Spring Will Be A Little Late This Year”

  8. scott allen says:

    This is from the NOAA website

    “it’s no surprise that the contiguous U.S. marked its wettest winter on record.”

    “In February, below-average to much-below-average temperatures were tallied from the West Coast to the Great Lakes. For example, the average February temperature for Great Falls, Montana, was nearly 28 degrees F below normal — more than 10 degrees colder than the previous record.”

    “The winter temperature was 33.4 degrees F (1.2 degrees above average), ranking it among the hottest third of winters on record, with warmer-than-average temperatures across the Deep South, the Southeast and parts of New England.”

    Two things from this.

    Yes it was a “surprise” to you (NOAA) because you predicted a drought.

    Once again NOAA will admit that February was the coldest on record, but they will still say the average US temperature was above average, this is beyond fudging this is fraud.

    • McLovin' says:

      And it was “among the ‘hottest’ (i.e. not warmest) third of winters on record…” Whatever NOAA. Whatever.

    • AndyDC says:

      If you take the first 6 days in March, there were stations in Montana that averaged over 30 degrees below normal for well over a calendar month.

      A 20 degree departure from normal for a calendar month is an extremely rare event in the US. I believe there have only been three cases, January 1977, December 1983 and February 1936. So a 30 degree departure is extremely exceptional.

      • David A says:

        I believe Southern California – San Diego and LA had their first February with zero 70 degree or above days. I think it is continuing thus far in March.

  9. GW Smith says:

    Yet no one cares! That’s what worries me.

  10. Scott Mc says:

    Of course they have to predict warmer than normal or they will be criticized as to where is the Global Warming, and to match their own long term forecasts.

  11. winnipeg boy says:

    Don’t Worry.
    They will adjust the cold out in a few years.

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