Declining North Pole Summer Temperatures

Summer temperatures near the North Pole have been declining for 60 years, and have been consistently below normal since the year 2000.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

There are less than 70 days per year when temperatures near the pole can be above the freezing mark – blue line below – and temperatures have been running consistently below normal during the short melt season.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Climate alarmists say the Arctic is warming, because winter temperatures have been increasing for the past twenty years. Winter temperatures in recent years have been averaging about -25C, compared to about -30C in the past.  This warming has been due to deep dips in the jet stream, which bring the Polar Vortex south, and have been causing record cold in the US, Canada and Russia in recent. years.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

This past winter was much colder in the Arctic than the previous few were, though still above the 1958-2002 mean.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Ice has been getting thicker in the Arctic and currently averages about two meters thick.  The Northwest Passage has been blocked with very thick ice for the past two years, and is now impassable.

DMI Modelled ice thickness

Sixty years ago, Arctic ice was also about two meters thick, and experts were predicting an ice-free Arctic within a generation.

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

Meanwhile, climate alarmists continue to bombard propaganda about an ice-free Arctic – which obviously is not going to happen.

There has been no trend in Arctic sea ice extent for the past 13 years.

Masie Sea Ice Extent

Our top experts predicted the Arctic would be ice-free by 2008, and almost every year since.

Expert: Arctic polar cap may disappear this summer_English_Xinhua

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

BBC NEWS | UK | Swimmer aims to kayak to N Pole

Star-News – Google News Archive Search

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

Wayback Machine

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 | Sierra Club Canada

Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist | Environment | The Guardian

The End of the Arctic? Ocean Could be Ice Free by 2015 – The Daily Beast

A farewell to ice | Review | Chemistry World

And ten years ago, President Obama’s science adviser predicted ice-free winters.

…if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, it’s going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere.

– John Holdren, 2009

With declining summer temperatures, there is zero chance of the Arctic becoming ice-free any time in the foreseeable future.

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15 Responses to Declining North Pole Summer Temperatures

  1. Psalmon says:

    Thirty years ago in 1988 Hansen told Congress (as reported in NY Times):

    “If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit from the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections. This rise in temperature is not expected to be uniform around the globe but to be greater in the higher latitudes, reaching as much as 20 degrees, and lower at the Equator.”

    I guess we have to run the experiment another 5-10 years or maybe 30 years…until they predict the same thing for 2100, because the goal posts never stop moving, the thesis is never disproved, the tipping point is always upon us. Maybe like the acting profession the climate elite will pass the reigns to their sons and daughters generation after generation and Michelle Mann will tell people 100 years from now the Arctic will soon be ice free again, just like records show it was in 2008.

    • Jason Calley says:

      Hey Psalmon! +1!

      You say, “Maybe like the acting profession the climate elite will pass the reigns to their sons and daughters “. Sadly, “climate science” truly has become just a small subset of the acting profession. It certainly is not science!

      Your mention of the moving goalposts certainly hits a nerve as well. Perhaps the CAGW tactic that bothers me the most is called the “Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.” The CAGW experts make a complete stew of predictions — “There will be more rain! Less rain! More hurricanes! Fewer hurricanes! Expanding ice from cold melt-water! Disappearing ice! Bigger animals! Smaller animals!” No matter what happens, someone, somewhere, has predicted it — at which point the alarmists pull out that single “expert” and point at his prediction. “SEE! We told you!”

    • Petit_Barde says:

      Expert tells, experts say, according to experts, …

      “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”
      Richard Feynman

      In the field of climate “science”, “ignorance” is an understatement.

  2. Brian D says:

    Just to give some visual evidence of the state of ice back in the 50’s. Russian ice maps from radar detection overflights.

    From early Sept 1952. Notice how far north the ice was from Barrow, and in the Laptev.

  3. Brian D says:

    Then we look at mid Aug 1953. Notice all that rotten ice and even some open water far north towards the Pole.

  4. Brian D says:

    Then again in late Aug of 1953.

  5. Brian D says:

    We can also see how the ice was really far north again in early Sept 1968.

  6. Brian D says:

    We can also see a rather large area of open water in the western arctic in late Aug of 1969. I do believe there was a sat image found a few years ago for this time period that showed this very thing that the Russians partially showed in there maps.

  7. Caleb Shaw says:

    What tuned me into the possibility Alarmists were fudging figures was the erasing of the Medieval Warm Period. It still astounds me that they thought they could get away with that. Simply the fact that the Vikings could raise 100,000 sheep and goats and several thousand cattle on Greenland involves a very different climate.

    I’m as certain as a person can be, without a time machine, that the waters had to be warmer and there had to be less sea-ice back then. Consider, if you will, a problem as simple as getting all those livestock a drink of water in the winter. The beasts would die of thirst if the temperatures were minus-forty. The climate had to be maritime rather than arctic, with open water where there is now is sea-ice.

    In the Sagas there is a story of a Viking host, faced with an unexpected visitor, needing to grab a goat to slaughter for dinner. (Vikings apparently were as fierce with their friendship as they were with their war.) In a grandiose manner (worthy of mentioning in a Saga) the fellow swam out to an island, slaughtered a goat, and swam back with the carcass. The island is known, as are the current temperatures of the salt water. The water is now below the freezing point of human blood, and a person cannot survive in such water five minutes. Conclusion? The water was warmer a thousand years ago.

    There is so much of this sort of evidence that “erasing the Medieval Warm Period” involves an eraser the size of a truck, and nonstop rubbing. But the Truth does not have to work at all to be true. The only work involved is studying the history, and seeing It.

  8. Brian D says:

    Have more interesting maps of the max ice in the Greenland Sea. Here’s from late March 1957.

  9. Brian D says:

    And again in late March 1958. Look at the ice loss in the Greenland Sea.

  10. DM says:

    Well informed and reasoned feedback on the following is requested. Warmer Artic air temperatures did NOT shrink Artic sea ice extent in recent decades. Instead, ocean current shifts diminished the extent AND warmed Artic air. With regards to the latter, the concept is: Water temperature profoundly influences air temperature where the sea is exposed.

    This cause and effect relationship was described in an article. Regrettably, I have seen other articles confirming or disputing it. So, insights from readers and Tony are requested.

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