The Path To An Ice-Free Arctic

There is currently about six trillion tons of Arctic sea ice.  All that alarmists have to do is melt that in the next week or two, before the melt season shuts down. They just need to melt about one trillion tons of ice per day.

DMI Modelled ice thickness

Expert: Arctic polar cap may disappear this summer_English_Xinhua

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

BBC NEWS | UK | Swimmer aims to kayak to N Pole

Star-News – Google News Archive Search

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

Wayback Machine

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 | Sierra Club Canada

Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist | Environment | The Guardian

The End of the Arctic? Ocean Could be Ice Free by 2015 – The Daily Beast

A farewell to ice | Review | Chemistry World

And President Obama’s science adviser predicted ice-free winters.

…if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, it’s going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere.

– John Holdren, 2009

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50 Responses to The Path To An Ice-Free Arctic

  1. griff says:

    I say again: the sea ice extent is the lowest for date in the satellite record: if it just continues at an average rate it will come in at second lowest at minimum and it is still challenging 2012. That’s 7 years on from the record low and it clearly has not recovered.

    The thickness and mass is lower than ever, as is the amount of multi year ice. The whole state of the ice indicates that future lower extents are absolutely certain.

    There are record temps this year along the North of Canadian territory: Alert has seen 20C, 15C more than recorded before. Alaska is, er, baking…

    The Greenland melt has been huge and the SMB is well into loss territory (please do print it!)

    Siberia has an area the size of Belgium on fire.

    Though it will not melt out this year, the arctic ice is heading for summer extinction, absolutely certainly.

    you can’t keep on pretending it is all OK, that this is not happening.

    • spike55 says:

      YAP YAP, YAP, goes the griffool.

      I say it again.

      You are a MANIC and DESPERATE CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER, griffool. !

      Arctic sea ice area is STILL in the top 5-10% of the last 10,000 years

      There has been NO TREND in MASIE area or DMI volume in over a decade.

      Russia is experiencing VERY COLD conditions in the middle of their summer
      People actually LIVE THERE.
      Who lives on the Arctic sea ice?

      WHY do you HATE people so , so much, griffool !?

      Despite the meandering jet stream pumping warm Saharan air over the Arctic , where it is more quickly dissipated to space, the sea ice will almost certainly bottom out above 4 Wadhams again

      This is FAR MORE than any period of the Holocene except the Little Ice Age.

      Your comments are NOTHING but mindless empty cackling.

      Even chicken little doesn’t wet his bed as often as you do.

      There are medical treatments for chronic bed-wetting, griffool, you should try some of them. !!

    • spike55 says:

      And you can’t keep on PRETENDING that you CARE.

      You cannot keep PRETENDING that Arctic sea ice is extent is NOT still A LOT HIGHER than it has been for all but 500 or so years of the last 10,000 years.

      Do you really PRETEND to yourself that late 1970’s levels were normal, despite being close to those of the Little Ice Age.

      You really have to get some treatment for you chronic bed-wetting,

      The first step in your treatment would be to stop being so GULLIBLE, IGNORANT and to actually get some historical perspective.

      ie … stop being a CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER.

      Your MANIC PANIC and constantly wet bedsheets is not good for someone with as little brain capacity as you have.

    • MrGrimnasty says:

      Griff, how do you keep pretending this is not all a perfectly natural state.

      Arctic fires are common, vital to the ecosystem.

      Alert has been hotter in the recent past.

      Greenland has been hotter and had less ice recently (climate-wise speaking).

      Of course there will be significantly less ice in the Arctic in the future, there was in the past – why would this not repeat at some point?

      But the total lack of ability of climate alarmists (laughably called scientists/experts) to make a single verified prediction, the way they switch from black to white depending on whatever happens, believing and promoting a completely non-falsifiable theory…..

      That is quackery, complete insanity, heinous dishonesty, utter stupidity.

    • Gerald Machnee says:

      **That’s 7 years on from the record low and it clearly has not recovered.**
      State the facts – it is NOT melting away like you and the fear mongers predict.

    • Gator says:

      Ms Griff, when did the “satellite record” begin? Was it before or after the MWP?

      Hint: It was over 40 years ago, and the data does not back your poor brown people hating claim.

    • arn says:

      when you read here all these articles of your masters with all their failed
      pathetic predictions do you ever consider reaching the “enough is enough” moment
      or has the co2 inside your brain passed the point of no return to sanity

      It is indeed a science to fool people for decades and be wrong all the time and have many years of failed prediction and still find enough idiots to believe you.

      +as i always say.
      Hansen predictions are 100% right for a world that is warming fast= sea levels will rise very fast.
      For this planet they are 100% wrong

    • GW Smith says:

      Twice you said you are “absolutely certain” while all these articles cited show a complete vacuum of certainty. How are your assessments different this time? You remind me of socialists who are “certain” that THIS time they can make it work.

    • GW Smith says:

      And even if it did all melt, what makes you believe it will be that way forever? There were periods in the past when the arctic was ice free for millions of years, but life on Earth thrived. What makes you believe you can control Earth’s climate, what is good and what is bad, in the first place?

    • neal s says:

      The faith of griff in CAGW is very similar to Linus’ faith in the Great Pumpkin. To be fair, there is probably more evidence for the Great Pumpkin.

    • Kent says:

      One day the arctic will, indeed, be ice free during the winter. When that happens, the snow that falls on the surrounding land masses will be enough that the summers will not entirely melt it and a new ice age will begin. This has happened at least five times before and it is the natural cycle.

      All of this will take longer than your or my lifetime. It may take another 10,000 years of ebbing and flowing. Don’t have a hernia!

    • jim says:

      griff–“you can’t keep on pretending it is all OK, that this is not happening.”
      So what?
      Or are you implying that it is caused by man’s CO2?
      If so please show us actual evidence that man’s Co2 is causing serious global warming.

    • spike55 says:

      “**That’s 7 years on from the record low and it clearly has not recovered.**”

      No, the first 8000+ years of the Holocene had FAR LOWER extents than now.

      Your sea-ice bed-wetting is brought about by your manic and wilful IGNORANCE. !

      How much sea ice “should ” there be at the lowest summer point, griffool.

      Should it be EXTREME HIGHS like the LIA and late 1970s ..

      or should it be far less than now, and more in line with the Holocene normal?

      Come on, give reason for you answer or STFU, little nappy-wetting trollette.

  2. spike55 says:

    Almost certainly going to bottom out above 4 Wadhams, like it has for the lastmany years.

    There used to be MUCH LESS sea ice in the ARctic back in the MWP and basically all the Holocene before that.

    There is still ONE HECK OF A LOT of sea ice up there.

    4 Wadhams is over 16 time the area of the UK.

    and about half the area of the Contiguous United States

    That is ONE HECK OF A LOT of sea ice.

  3. Toto's fan says:

    Chicken Little, Henny Penny, and Ducky Lucky had to get to King Toto to tell him, “the sky is falling”. (Long story short)
    If he had only looked harder and hadn’t jumped to conclusions, he wouldn’t have scared everybody and made a mess of his town.

  4. rah says:

    “That’s 7 years on from the record low and it clearly has not recovered.”

    “Recovered” to what? Tell us Griff exactly what is the ideal amount of sea ice in the Arctic and why? Exactly how much sea ice must there be in the Arctic during August to meet your requirement for climate utopia?

    • spike55 says:

      Griffool thinks the Arctic sea ice should be chockers all year.

      And that the south of England should never have a summer.

      He wants everything frozen in stasis… just like his mind.

      He is a classic CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER.

      He DENIES that the planet is currently COLDER than it has been for all but about 500-700 years of the last 10,000 years.

  5. Joel says:

    A question to the group…

    I know none of us was here at the time, but what is the best estimation of polar ice during the MWP? Was it completely gone?…mostly gone?

    Thanks in advance.

    And one other observation/question…

    If there are 6 trillion tons of ice in the Arctic, and we lost 12 billion tons a couple of days ago…grabbing calculator…

    12 billion divided by 6 trillion is .002, which I believe translates to .2%. So am I right in saying that, after the “largest melt day” in history, 99.8% of the existing ice still exists?

    • Gator says:

      A peer-reviewed paper published in the Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences finds that Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the 20th century was more extensive than most of the past 9000 years. The paper also finds that Arctic sea ice extent was on a declining trend over the past 9000 years, but recovered beginning sometime over the past 1000 years and has been relatively stable and extensive since.

      This is why most geologists laugh at alarmists, because they know how dynamic and chaotic our planet can be, unlike the miseducated lefties who spout this CAGW nonsense.

    • rah says:

      There is no way to know for sure how extensive the melt was during the MWP. We do know of course that the Vikings had no problem navigating to Greenland and beyond during that period. We know that the Vikings had at least two significant settlements in Southern Greenland and built their longhouses and even a small Cathedral using trees much larger than exist on Greenland today. And there have plenty of recent papers that have found through proxy evidence that the both the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods were warmer than today.

      During the LIA Arctic Sea Ice extended down far enough to surrounded and isolate Iceland for a couple of years.

      • griff says:

        timber for Viking buildings in Greenland did NOT come from Greenland (unless driftwood – and there would have sometimes been quite large trees from N America as driftwood)

        Greenland only had a few stands of dwarf birch

        • spike55 says:

          Roots growing through tombs that are now permafrost

          Tree stumps and artefacts under retreating glaciers.

          Stop your ignorant and idiotic CLIMATE CXHANGE DENIAL, griffool !!

        • spike55 says:

          “a few stands of dwarf birch”

          WRONG. You are thinking of NOW.

          Much bigger trees back in the MWP, and they grew under where glaciers are now.

          Stop your ignorant Climate Change DENIAL, nappy-troll.

        • rah says:

          Horse pucky!
          Fossil DNA Proves Greenland Once Had Lush Forests; Ice Sheet Is Surprisingly Stable

          “But does not Greenland have a forest of native trees? Oh yes it does. It is called the Qinngua Valley with native willow, birch, alder and mountain ash trees. The trees can grow to… now hold your breath… to heights of 25 feet. They are probably some of the most scraggly looking trees I have ever seen that could easily be mistaken for simply overgrown bushes. It is still too cold to grow a real tree in Greenland, one that could soar to a “robust” height of 60 feet or more with a trunk around which could not be contained by the hug of one’s arms. It was essential that the Norse Greenlanders had access to an immediate supply of wood to have commenced and maintained their farming settlements for the centuries they lived on the island.”

          It defies common sense to claim that settlements that grew to over 5,000 and lived through agriculture survived on driftwood.

    • spike55 says:

      Here is the Icelandic sea ice index,

      Note the extent around Iceland in the LIA, then again in the late 1970s

      And there are several reconstruction from bio-proxies of the amount of sea ice in different areas of the Arctic

      ALL of them show that huge peak in sea ice during the LIA, then s partial RECOVERY from that coldest of period, a slight way towards more “normal” Holocene sea ice extents… Nowhere near a full recovery yet, though.

    • Nicholas McGinley says:

      The 6 trillion refers to sea ice, while the 12 billion tons was melt on the Greenland ice sheet.
      Totally separate.

    • sunsettommy says:

      Here is one for the MWP time frame:

      Birds and Climatic Change

      Kenneth Williamson (1975) Birds and Climatic Change, Bird Study, 22:3,143-164, DOI: 10.1080/00063657509476459

      Published online: 24 Jun 2009


      Between 1000 and 1300 average summer temperatures were about 1°C higher than today, with the mean annual temperature higher by perhaps 4°C in a largely ice-free Arctic. Eric the Red, a renowned world citizen of that time, has been much maligned as the first progressive publicity man for giving Greenland a false image in order to attract settlers; but in truth, the southwest of that vast country was warmer and greener by far than at any time until the Fieldfares Turdus pilaris arrived there in the mid-1930s. The sea-temperature of the Atlantic was higher than it has been since, and there appears to have been none or very little ice to hinder the Vikings’ communications between Iceland, Greenland,Newfoundland and Labrador (Mowat 1965). Indeed Brooks (1926) considers that the polar ice-cap may have disappeared entirely during the summer months, to build anew each winter.”

  6. BobW in NC says:

    Found on WUWT and is perfect for Griff: Quote that caught my eye: “We worry that *overemphasis* on science may hamper the design of effective climate solutions.” Subtitle: “Why science needs the humanities to solve climate change.”

    *Overemphasis on science* to analyze what is clearly a science issue??? You’ve GOT to be kidding me! No wonder this country is in trouble!

    “Fighting Climate Change with Dance: Humanities Professors Demand Representation on Science Teams”

    Eric Worrall / 21 hours ago Accessed 08/03/19

    • rah says:

      It’s just the humanities faculties screaming to get on the climate change gravy train.

    • griff says:


      The Greenland ice sheet shrunk more in the past month than the average for a whole year between 2002 and now.

      That’s hard fact.

      • spike55 says:


        You wouldn’t know a FACT if it kicked you hard on the arse.

        You DENY hard facts.

        There is still FAR MORE than there has been for all but about 500 years of the last 8000 years.

        Why do you HATE the people of Russia who are having to endure temps up to 10C LOWER than normal during their summer, after a freezing cold winter.

        You are more worried about a very minor loss of ice from Greenland than you are about the plight of actual PEOPLE

        And all so you can keep bed-wetting

        You are one SICK, EVIL piece of slime, that is for sure.

        Stop your childish CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL , griffool, you only maintain that IGNORANCE so you can keep up your bed-wetting, because chicken-little bed-wetting is your only joy in life.

      • spike55 says:

        Griffool is LYING, yet again

        SMB is still within normal bounds.

      • KevinPaul says:

        Some of locals will be hoping for a lot more to go so they can get at some of the precious gemstones locked away!

  7. Steve Keohane says:

    The real question is how much ice would have to melt to raise sea levels 6 feet. Since the oceans have dropped 6 feet in the last 4-6000 years, that’s how much more ice we have now than existed then.

    • spike55 says:

      Perhaps if it keeps going, it will FINALLY get down to the amounts in the MWP and the previous 8000 or so years and Greenland can actually become productive again.

      Wouldn’t that be a GREAT THING.. LONG way to go though.

      Why do you want people to live is FREEZING, bitter cold griffool.

      Hatred for people just so you can continue your climate change denial and bed-wetting.

      You are SICK and DEPRAVED, griffool.

      Seek medical and psychological treatment.. !!

    • Dontbedumb says:

      So this graph shows the SMB had a larger than mean melt in a few days in the hottest time of the year? Where were you when it gained about as much on Nov 20th 2018?

      Same thing happened July 19th – 25th 2016, massive SMB loss over a few days. Miraculously the next two years saw it recover fine…

      • spike55 says:

        In this case, we have a warm WEATHER pattern stuck over Greenland, unfortunately the flip side is that anomalous COLD over north-west Russia and Scandinavia.. where lots of people actually live.

        Yet you don’t hear about it , because apparently, its not a “catastrophe “. ;-)

        There goes any chance of growing something this summer, maybe they can import from the massive expanse of growth of crops in Greenland ;-)

        Wouldn’t it be great for the people in Greenland if they could actually have outdoor crops like they used to during the MWP !!

        • Disillusioned says:

          Wouldn’t it be great for the people in Greenland if they could actually have outdoor crops like they used to during the MWP !!

          Bbbbbut that simply cannot be. griff tells us that the Norse settlers Vinlanders never grew anything there. And that all their wood was imported from Europe… which apparently would include the stumps and roots found there. ;-)

    • Nicholas McGinley says:

      Huge amounts of heat are being transported to the pole and dissipated away to space.
      We are heading into a very cold couple of decades.
      Warm weather is good for all living things.
      Less ice is good for all living things.
      More CO2 is good for all living things.
      Frozen wastelands are bad.
      Ice year around is what is called a frozen wasteland.
      We should be so lucky to have it all melt away.
      A whole new route would open up.
      We are very unlikely to be so lucky.

      • spike55 says:

        Yep, the meandering jet stream is acting like a pump or a vacuum.

        Sucking warm air up from the tropics and rapidly disposing of the energy through the thinner atmosphere at the poles.

        Glad I live somewhere warm, because the next couple of decades could be a serious problem for cooler climate areas.

      • rah says:

        Joe Bastardi is pretty sure we’re in for a rough and colder than average winter here in the US. The “blob” of warm surface water has reappeared in the NW south of Alaska and it’ll be a big factor in driving the weather pattern come winter.

  8. Andy says:


    We’ve both been watching the cycle up there longer than most people on here, so it puzzles me what you always say at this time it is done and dusted?

    As you know the arctic melt typically lasts till mid September, so why, once again, are you calling it short .. “the next two weeks” when it is at least 5 and maybe 7 or so weeks ? You do this every year.

    True the rate will be leveling off. But it’s still going to be pretty low. The rebound after 2007 is still to happen. There is no Atlantic oscillation yet to ride into town to save the onward reduction so far.

    The Antarctic, which was nice and big and quoted not so long back as a comparison, is now low, and that is no longer quoted …. ??


    PS You still use DMI when you should be using JAXA also as more accurate.

    • spike55 says:

      ” But it’s still going to be pretty low.”

      No its not.

      It still going to WAY above that of the MWP and most of the 8000+ years before that.

      Probably around the same as the last dozen or so years, and STILL in the top 5-10% of the Holocene.

      That is NOT “pretty low”

      it is “pretty HIGH” !!!!!

      There is still one heck of a lot of sea ice up there in the Arctic !

      I doubt anyone will be able to get through the NWP this year, even with the aid of ice breakers and satellite navigation, drones to spot ice passages etc.

      What “SHOULD” the summer low extent be, Andy ?

      Should it be up with the anomalously high extents of the LIA and late 1970’s

      Or should it be rather less than now, and somewhere near the much lower , often open, Holocene normal.

    • rah says:

      Don’t confuse astronomical seasons with meteorological seasons.
      The summer Solstice was June 21st when the sun was it highest at 23.44 degrees above the horizon at the north pole. The Autumn Equinox when the sun drops below the horizon at the North Pole is about Sept 21st.

      As I write this on August 3rd the sun at the North pole is 17.5 degrees above the horizon at the North Pole.
      When this day started at the North Pole the sun was 17.7 degrees above the horizon. By midnight tonight there it will be at 17.4 degrees above the horizon. The sun is dropping towards the horizon a rate of about .10 degree every 9 1/2 hours.

      The point being end of the melt season comes well before the Autumn Equinox just as the beginning of the melt season does not start with the Spring Equinox when the sun first pokes above the horizon for the year.

  9. Andy says:

    Note that the tongue of ice that was multiyear ice that extended into the East Siberian sea has this year been eroded very badly compared to the last 2 years.

    A very low ice minimum is dependent on the Russian side just due to there being less land to get in the way. So melting there takes a big chunk out of the total. Given that this will be a very low year. Not as low as 2012 which had a perfect storm of warm weather prior to July and then a storm to encourage melting later on, but this will still be a very low year I’d guess, sub 4 million probably.


    • spike55 says:

      I bet the Russians would LUV that sea ice to open up for more than just a few weeks each year. Before the LIA, they used to do whaling up there for quite a long part of the year, you know.

      Not much chance now.

      Although Russia are preparing for an all out assault on the Arctic sea ice, with new nuclear powered icebreakers capable of blasting and heating their way through the ice. !!

      Maybe they know something about sea ice, and JUST HOW MUCH OF IT there is ;-)

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