Tough Times For Climate Alarmists

Arctic sea ice extent growth during December has been second fastest on record, and ice extent is “normal.”

masie_4km_allyears_extent_sqkm.csv

Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

The news is just going to get worse for self-proclaimed ice lovers, because cold northerly winds are going to produce lots of ice growth in the Bering Sea over the next few days.

Ventusky

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25 Responses to Tough Times For Climate Alarmists

  1. Timothy Hansen says:

    Hey Tony, love your work. Perhaps I have been unable to find it, but have you done a story on the whole “97% scientific consensus” narrative? I’ve done some of my own research to realize that that number is massively sanitized for public consumption, but would love to see your take on it.

    Keep up the good work!

  2. Scissor says:

    Team Lance is spending Christmas stuck in the ice.

    https://direkte.vg.no/nordpolen_ousland/videos/189174

  3. G W Smith says:

    My gosh, it appears to be cyclic!

  4. Gary Seymour says:

    ‘Arctic sea ice extent growth during December has been second fastest on record, and ice extent is “normal”.’

    Two standard deviations below a forty year average is not “normal”. It is scientifically significant, and the rate of recovery from an extreme is certainly also not a cause for reassurance. If you click on Tony’s link to the Charctic Sea Ice Extent graph and select ‘Show All Years’, it will be obvious to anyone that over the last forty years there has been a very significant decline in Arctic sea ice extent.

    But I am sure few of you will be surprised by the data. Experts on both sides of this issue interpret the same data in quite different ways. Even though few of us are rigorously trained in climate science, it would behoove us all to keep an open mind on this issue. It is human nature to belittle people and ideas that conflict with our own beliefs, yet progress comes only from those that have open minds.

    • Ron Clutz says:

      True, what is normal depends on the time frame when considering a self-oscillating system like the Arctic. Since 2007 there has been a plateau in Arctic sea ice extents, whereas the previous decade or so had a sharp decline preceded by a period of gradual decline. Over the last century, the waxing and waning is more evident.
      https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Arctic-sea-ice-since-1900.png

    • Disillusioned says:

      “Two standard deviations below a forty year average is not “normal”. ”

      Isn’t the center of the gray band to the outer edge actually ONE standard deviation?

      “…obvious to anyone that over the last forty years there has been a very significant decline in Arctic sea ice extent.”

      So, Gary, you think beginning in 1979, the period with the highest ice extent in over a century is significant? Cherry pick much?

      “Even though few of us are rigorously trained in climate science, it would behoove us all to keep an open mind on this issue.”

      Says the cherry picker who wants us to start at the coldest period since the Little Ice Age – and claims that ice loss loss since then is “significant.” SMH

      • Phil. says:

        Disillusioned says:
        December 24, 2019 at 10:43 pm
        “Two standard deviations below a forty year average is not “normal”. ”

        Isn’t the center of the gray band to the outer edge actually ONE standard deviation?

        No as is clearly stated in the legend to the right of the figure it is ±2stdev.

    • Gator says:

      I was trained in climate science. There is nothing unusual going on in the Arctic, except for the year round ice.

      • spike55 says:

        First 8000 or so years of the Holocene, Arctic sea ice often was pretty much all gone in summer

        The only reason we see a decrease in the last 40 years is because 1979 was an EXTREME HIGH extent, up there with extents from that coldest of periods, the Little Ice Age.

        • rah says:

          How did mankind and polar wildlife ever survive the Holocene Climate Optimum? The 0ldest polar bear fossil that has been found is about 130,000 years old though the bears have probably been around about twice as long as that if not longer. And they have managed to survive multiple periods warmer than present. Yet “Sir” David and his ilk think their going through tougher times that “normal” and are “endangered” despite all the evidence that they are in fact thriving and all but one of the polar regions show stable or increasing populations. To be an alarmist one has to deny so much.

          • Phil. says:

            mtDNA shows all modern Polar bears descended from Brown bears living in Ireland during the last ice age.

            https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2011/jul/ancestry-polar-bears-traced-ireland

          • spike55 says:

            So Phail, you admit that Polar Bears have survived through all of the Holocene, when most of that period there were higher temperatures and far LESS sea ice.

            Thanks for that.. now change feet !!

          • Phil. says:

            spike55 says:
            December 26, 2019 at 7:49 pm
            So Phail, you admit that Polar Bears have survived through all of the Holocene, when most of that period there were higher temperatures and far LESS sea ice.

            No I said that all Polar bears are descended from a female Brown bear that lived in Ireland in the last ice age.

          • rah says:

            I think you should take that “ancestry” with a big grain of salt. Not saying that the Polar bear did not evolve to become a separate species from the Brown bear but that it appears that Hibridization between Brown bears and Polar bears has been ongoing entire time on this earth. Cave bear DNA has been identified in modern brown bears.

          • Phil. says:

            I think you should take that “ancestry” with a big grain of salt. Not saying that the Polar bear did not evolve to become a separate species from the Brown bear but that it appears that Hibridization between Brown bears and Polar bears has been ongoing entire time on this earth. Cave bear DNA has been identified in modern brown bears.

            And modern human DNA has Neanderthal and Denisovan DNA contributions. There is no reason to take the ancestry with a ‘grain of salt’, the results showed that “Hybridisation between ancient Irish brown bears and polar bears has led to the complete replacement of the original polar bear mitochondria. This maternal lineage is now present in all modern polar bears.”
            That indicates that all modern polar bears are descended from a female brown bear from Ireland dating back to about 38,000 years ago.

          • rah says:

            LOL! The reason why the oldest polar bear fossil found is about 130,000 years old is because where the bears live and die is not conducive to fossil preservation. Polar bears have been around a lot longer than the 38,000 years you state.
            But anyway one cuts it, they have survived periods when it was considerably warmer at the Arctic than now and THAT fact is the one you’ve been trying to dodge. Typical. And it is a perfect example of what I was saying.

          • Phil. says:

            Polar bears have been around a lot longer than the 38,000 years you state.

            Present day Polar bears carry the mtDNA from the Irish Brown bears, they are all hybrids dating from ~38,000 years ago. Apparently none of the ‘Polar bears’ that weren’t descended from that bear didn’t make it. So something gave those bears an evolutionary advantage over their contemporaries, due to their hybridization with the Irish bear. The descendants of that fossil bear from 130,000 years ago didn’t make it unless they mated with descendants of the Irish bear.

    • spike55 says:

      Arctic sea ice is actually in the top 5% extent of the last 10,000 years

      Its WAY ABOVE NORMAL

    • spike55 says:

      1979 was an extreme high in extent, up there with extents of the Little Ice Age

    • spike55 says:

      “yet progress comes only from those that have open minds.”

      You should try it sometime,

      release yourself from the AGW propaganda and brain-washing.

  5. Mark Luhman says:

    Anyway you look at it the temperature has been declining now for about 8000 years and somehow AOC wants me to fear this recent warming period, is she stupid(that not really a question, the answer is yes, as is all the global warming crowd!)

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