Global warming will cut crop harvests by 2% each decade, researchers say
Crop harvests have been increasing steadily decade after decade
Decline in predicted crop yields is larger than first thought and could endanger food security, unless CO² emissions are cut
“Larger than first thought” means “someone told us to ramp up the BS level”
The research, conducted by Australian, British and American scientists, found that the situation will worsen in the second half of the century, with tropical areas worse hit than temperate regions.
They stole taxpayer money in three countries. Charlatans made predictions for after they retire.
An analysis of more than 1,700 simulations found that across all regions and all crops, including wheat, maize and rice, yields will drop by 2% each decade, based on a 2C rise by 2050.
If you run the same worthless software enough times, it is bound to get better.
If the Earth miraculously warmed two degrees by 2050, the area of productive land would vastly increase, and so would the food supply. The father of global warming wrote about this over 100 years ago.
Climate scientists now do fact-free research.
Reblogged this on Catholic Glasses.
The temperature of the whole world raised 8-9C…would put us…GULP!
Nice info, but he was guessing rather foolishly, me thinks.
Steven,
Climate scientists shot themselves in the foot when they made specific predictions about the type of warming that will occur.
1. Winter will experience warmer anomalies than summer.
2. Nights will experience warmer anomalies than days.
3. Upper latitudes will experience warmer anomalies than the tropical region.
So let me get this straight. 1. We will have more and/or longer growing seasons, 2. With less killing frost at night, and 3. Land in the high latitudes will become arable.
Thanks for that, I think I will take the risk of doing nothing.
Bring on the future
Even though, even if you believe the IPCC line, AGW will bring more benefits than detriments, e.g. warmer is better, CO2 grows plants more, the objection of the warmists is not whether things actually get better with more CO2, it’s that humans did it.
Let’s say AGW is 80% better, 20% worse for planet; the mere fact that humans did it means: OH NO, nature is disrupted! Ignore the positive benefits and just think: humans are evil no matter what they do! Height of stupidity.
Let’s say AGW is 80% better, 20% worse for planet????????????????
The plabet doesn’t care, it’s a piece of rock.
Besides that even if we wanted to control CO2 levels in our atmosphere we couldn’t.
Even if we remove the entire world population from the face of the planet, stop all our economic activity it wouldn’t make a difference.
Ice ages have come and go. When the cold starts in the biosphere reduces, CO2 levels decline around 180 ppm but higher in the oceans.
As soon as the ice age ends, and they come like clock world, the biosphere returns, grows and CO2 levels rise.
Human civilization is just a flee on the back of a donkey.
The entire discussion is too absurd for words and has arrived at a level where it has become extremely boring.
Now if you want to make some sense why we have these activists telling us we can no longer screw around, burn fuel, eat meat, buy SUV’s ride planes, read this:
http://green-agenda.com and UN Agenda 21
It’s the Reds returning in a green coat and they are preparing the biggest slaughterhouse of our times. Why? Why invest in people who have become obsolete? They want 500 million not 7 billion.
Is it going to work?
Nope. It has been tried before over the past century and it failed.
Yup I am bored by it as well. Ready to move on. We keep debating the science as though that’s what the warmists care about, when it’s really this Agenda 21 crap.
The alternative is that the earth soon abruptly transitions into glaciation.
Whether and when this transition happens is the debate currently raging in the circle of Quaternary climate scientists. A GoreBull Warming Tipping point is a real non starter. A tipping point into glaciation is a distinct possibility. The change from the Wisconsin Ice Age to the Holocene happened in THREE years. BTW.
If Ruddiman’s “Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis” is correct, it is mankind’s GHG emissions that have prevented the glacial inception that should have already taken place within the past few hundred years.
The Warmists among us had better hope and pray that human emitted CO2 is delaying the next glacial inception. Onset of the Little Ice Age, just after the Medieval Warm Period, was right when the Holocene reached the half precession point, the correct timing for glacial inception. The Modern Warm Period, reportedly less warm then the MWP, marks the second thermal pulse. The Eemian, the last interglacial, had two thermal pulses before the descent into glaciation.
Even during MIS-11, the only interglacial to make it past half a precession cycle, it got awfully cold between the two solar insolation peaks. Additional CO2 that might prevent the planet from cooling further (and it has already cooled ~3°C from the Holocene solar insolation peak) would be mighty welcome in the coming years.
If you are a skeptic, then the Modern Warm Period was not in response to rising CO2 but might be in response to the Modern Grand Maximum of solar activity now ending with “the current low level of [solar] activity, characterized by the highest ever observed cosmic ray flux as recorded by ground-based neutron monitors, the very low level of the HMF and geomagnetic activity” (Ilya G. Usoskin, Geophysical Observatory -Oulu unit.)
At the absolute worst, that is without anthropogenic influence (including early anthropogenic influence) some say we would already be deep into the next glacial inception. Others say that it is inconclusive. Either way, we are still uncomfortably close to the N65 summer solstice insolation value that was the threshold for the glacial inception of the Wisconsin Ice Age. “The onset of the LEAP occurred within less than two decades, demonstrating the existence of a sharp threshold, which must be near 416 Wm2, …Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the glacial inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again.”
[(wwwDOT)particle-analysis.info/LEAP_Nature__Sirocko+Seelos.pdf ]
That is a heck of a long time to be sitting on the edge of a cliff waiting for other factors to push the earth into glaciation.
From the paper Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? I extracted the 21 June solar insolation @ 65? N for several glacial inceptions:
Depth of the last ice age – around 437 W m?2 @ 60N June
NOW (Modern Warm Period) – 476 Wm-2 @ 60N June)
From (www)1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/orbital_variations/berger_insolation/insol91.jun
This would indicate that when the solar insolation gets somewhere below 500 W m?2, other factors (like volcanoes) tip the climate into glaciation.
The IPCC actually said in the Science Report in TAR:
Basically, it’s your classic Gordian Knot. Assume, for instance, the worst case for CO2. Then assume, for instance, that glacial inception should have already occurred if not for the early anthopogenic hypothesis (GHGs, land use etc.).
1. Sole, Turiel and Llebot (2007) says “The role of CO2 in the oscillation phenomena seems to be more related to extend the duration of the cooling phase than to trigger warming.”
2. “CO2 is a critical component of growth, plants in environments with inadequate CO2 levels – below 200 ppm – will cease to grow or produce.” (wwwDOT)planetnatural.com/site/xdpy/kb/implementing-co2.html
3. Carbon starvation in glacial trees recovered from the La Brea tar pits, southern California biblioteca(DOT)universia.net/ficha.do?id=912067
4. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society: Carbon dioxide starvation, the development of C4 ecosystems, and mammalian evolution
rstbDOTroyalsocietypublishing.org/content/353/1365/159.abstract
99% of plant species are C3 plants and most of our crops fall in the C3 category.
So Warmists should think very very carefully before agreeing that it is necessary to strip the earth of her CO2 security blanket that prevents plant starvation and might prevent glacial inception.
……………..
The papers the Politicians are ignoring:
The perturbed natural cycles is in regards to Ruddiman’s 2003 paper laying forth the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis: courses(DOT)washington.edu/holocene/Ruddiman-Holocene_Carbon_Cycle_Anthropocene-ClimChange03.pdf
A paper from 2007 Lesson from the past: present insolation minimum holds potential for glacial inception says
“Because the intensities of the 397 ka BP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial. Our findings support the Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman, W., 2003.]…” – – folk(DOT)uib.no/abo007/share/papers/eemian_and_lgi/mueller_pross07.qsr.pdf
Chronis Tzedakis, in an exhaustive look at the MIS-1/MIS-11/MIS-19 conundrum, considers the matters thusly
That is the Holocene matches the second half of MIS 11 and not the first and therefore a double precession is not in the cards.
Tzedakis (2010) concludes with:
A more recent 2012 paper: Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?
“The Modern Warm Period, reportedly less warm then the MWP, marks the second thermal pulse.”
Not to worry – After NOAA/NASA cooled the Medieval Warm Period, The Modern Warm Period was moved up to the first thermal pulse.
At least….I think that’s how government logic works…with the caveat that a growing concensus believes ‘government logic’ is an oxymoron.
Steve Goddard & co like to joke about return of lake Superior ice etc, to rub it into warmists. I share the joke, but fear the next ice age is upon us — big one not little one. If only Svante Arrhenius and his hare brained scheme to stop the next ice age by doubling CO2 would work. Unfortunately CO2 is irrelevant to temp.
based on a 2C rise by 2050.
What a load of dinosaur droppings! A rise of 2 C by 2050. In whose imagination?
If you took the 73 epic fail models and normalised them to 2014’s temperature and extrapolated, exactly none of them would rise 2 C by 2050.
That is how loony this is. Its insaner than the insanest of all the IPCC ensemble models.
Now that is what I call serious fruitloopery…
Was any actual physical science done? Did we create a biosphere to replicate how crops would do with higher CO2? If not Why not? We spent the money to see if people could be sustained in a biosphere for 3 years to test building outposts on other planets. What ever happened to physical science?
There have actually been lots of studies done. See http://www.co2science.org/ for a listing and synopsis of papers.
This particular paper is rather telling. It is a field study of wheat, a C3 plant. (Most of our crops are C3.)
Think about it, That study says C3 plants in open conditions can not suck CO2 down past 300 ppm!
GREENHOUSES:
Only in the closed environment of a greenhouse where plants are forced to scavenge the last little bit of CO2 does the value descend to near 250 to 200 ppm.
What the plants are saying is they agree with Dr. Jaworowski
CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal Of Our Time
(wwwDOT)scribd.com/doc/51653381/CO2-the-Greatest-Scientific-Scandal-of-Our-Time
Dr Ball has a much shorter article and includeing Ernest Beck’s research of historical CO2 measurements: Exposing the Global Warming Myth – CO2 Levels:
An excellent article by Dr. Tim Ball explodes the myth that pre-industrial CO2 levels were significantly lower than today’s levels:
doctorbulldog(DOT)wordpress.com/2008/12/10/exposing-the-global-warming-myth-co2-levels/
Increase in Co2 levels tells us the biosphere is prospering.
Reducing Co2 = reducing biosphere = anti life, anti environment, anti nature, anti humanity.
The people proposing CO2 recucions are:
1. Plain Stupid
2. Ignorant
3. Brainwashed
4. Right out criminal and dangerous
Take your pick.
I pick number four.
Skeptics have been throwing real science at the warmists for decades and it has not stuck.
What has stuck:
The banks own the press, or at least a large portion of it. link
SO WHAT IS IN IT FOR THE BANKS?
The Danish Text would give the World Bank control of the third world countries. After the World Bank’s Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs), third world countries have no use for the world banks.
Those who worked for the international bankers have nothing good to say about them.
By the way. During the Medieval Warmth Period when it was much warmer than today human cicilization in Europe prospered. There was abundance in agriculture, people earned money and the big cathedrals were build. Than the weather turned… Plague, famines, cold…. A bit like the weather we have today.
The only difference is that we now control the plague and managed to protect ourselves against the cold but failed to protect ourselves from Idiots with an Agenda.
Some peoples lives revolve around the idea that everyday they get out of bed it’s another chance to live a disaster movie and die. .
No some people get out of their bed believing they are the chosen one to save the planet and they want you to die. Small but not insignificant difference.
You got it!
The idea is to reduce human civilization back to the level of feudalism with most humans living a short brutal lives in abject poverty and the chosen few, like Al Gore, Maurice Strong and others living in the lap of luxury.
QUOTES
“The Earth has cancer and the cancer is Man.” ~ Club of Rome
“The planet is about to break out with fever.. and we [humans] are the disease. We should be at war with ourselves and our lifestyles.” -Thomas Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution
“It is a campaign not for abundance but for austerity. It is a campaign not for more freedom but for less. Strangest of all, it is a campaign not just against other people, but against ourselves.” -George Monbiot, UK Ecojournalist
“I’d like the world to warm up quicker.” -Phil Jones Climategate Email 2008
“Global Sustainability requires the deliberate quest of poverty, reduced resource consumption and set levels of mortality control.” – Professor Maurice King
“A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.” – Ted Turner, founder of CNN and major UN donor
IMPLEMENTATUON
Unfortunately Ted’s idea is not new and is widely held at least among Fabians. Think of the number of pensioners in the UK dying from fuel poverty (40,000) and since that isn’t fast enough the UK government has been paying hospitals to kill off other ‘Useless Eaters’ – babies as well as ill adults and old folks, These ‘hospital assisted deaths’ are a “part [of] 130,000 deaths of hospital patients every year”
After a major dust was kicked up thanks to the Daily Mail, there was an inquiry initiated. THIS is what we expect our journalists to do, not act as propaganda mouth pieces for the criminals in charge.
Fabian Founder George Bernard Shaw on killing off useless eaters
Given the forced sterilizations in the UK and USA up until recently I see no indication there has actually been any change in government policy. Especially with the co-author of the Population Bomb as Obama’s Science Czar.
Great summary . . . The 1930’s is back but this time Eugenics is painted green and the rationale is to triage the planet.
Same idea that the select few will be the ones to make the rules and not pay the price. That is for the little people, the peons, the serfs.
CAGW theory is not science. It is not even psuedo-science. It is a weapon. It is a memetic weapon designed to get into the minds of low information thinkers and make them destroy themselves and those around them. The people who designed and who wield this weapon have told us that the correct population for the earth is 500 million. CAGW theory is a weapon and it is aimed at you, at your family, and at billions of people around the planet.
They tell us that the recent warmth has been ‘unprecedented’. Fine. Here are the results.
And here is one of their computer model simulations. 🙂
Why is it that people don’t want to understand that global warming would open up vast NEW agricultural areas or prolong growing seasons? Think Canada, Russia, Northern China. They also tell us we won’t see much warming in the tropics but we would see the greatest warming as you head towards the poles and at night. Fewer food damaging frost nights? You can’t make someone understand when they don’t want to understand.
Why do you think Canada, China and Russia are not interested in CAGW?
They aren’t fools like Americans are.
Good grief we have the Economic experiment done infront of our noses in the EU which was a BIG FAIL and our Congress is STILL on board? Are they nuts or are they just TR@!TORS?
Scuppernong.
Think of the scuppernong as the South’s supergrape. It outlasts scorching temperatures that would shrivel the pinot, chardonnay, or gamay…
http://gardenandgun.com/article/scuppernongs
I guess I will be planting some this season along with a couple other hardy varieties.
Actually I am in the North Carolina Cape Fear River Valley and have Scuppernongs growing wild but the birds and goats get all of them.
I have plans for a goat and bird proof gardening area.
Add three tiers of concrete blocks for ‘raised beds full of goat poop’ plus clear tarps or bird netting and you get plenty of head room.
http://www.homesteadingtoday.com/livestock-forums/goats/190409-tarp-cattle-panel-shelter-pics-eric.html
A rise of maybe 0.8C in 160 years, but this paper pushes a 2C rise in just the next 36 years? At what point does this scaremongering go beyond simple ‘projections’ or ‘speculation’ and instead become wilful, deceitful exaggeration, and from there cross the line into criminal misdirection?
The authors know full well obliging MSM will likely quote the headline rather than explain any caveats, thus ensuring media misinformation to the public is the order of the day.
It is well into criminal fraud. With the deaths of 40,000 in the UK not to mention the 2008 food riots and associated deaths, you are talking conspiracy to commit murder.
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.” – Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation
“Climate Science as a Dark Commodity”
Or climate science as the scientific equivalent of “goat bothering”.
See comments here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/20/lewandowsky-paper-flushed-then-floated-again
Why is it that ‘socialists’ are always talking about how they want to “Help the common man” but it always seem that when they get control they end up killing millions?
In the most basic dichotomy of politics, there are only two forms: liberty or collectivism. Liberty is based on the idea that we each own (and control) ourselves. Collectivisim is based on the idea that we each are only a member of a great societal mass, with the corollary that someone needs to control the mass. Collectivism is always the tool that is used by those who are insane for power, so that they may put themselves in control over others. While Socialism is the most obvious manifestation of collectivism, it is certainly not alone. Modern democracy, based as it is on the use of mass media to wring uneducated consent from 50%+1 of the millions, is simply a more sophisticated and subtle form of collectivism.
The test for whether a politician is a collectivist or not is simple. Ignore what he saysand look at what he actually does. Does he support letting you run your own life, or does he support having someone else run your life?
The US government is an EPIC FAIL!
Think seat belt and helmet laws.
Sadly, yes, but the real sorrow of it is that if we would follow the Constitution it would be SO MUCH BETTER! I willingly grant that the US Constitution is not perfect. There are parts that need clarification, parts that need changing, parts that need deletion — but compared to what we have today, how wonderful it would be to see it followed.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/03/20/American-Physical-Society-Sees-The-Light-Will-It-Be-The-First-Major-Scientific-Institution-To-Reject-The-Global-Warming-Consensus