Obama administration policy is based on climate models which have less accuracy than a Ouija board.
This is what they predicted :
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/gifs/2010/201001temp.gif
This is what we are getting. The exact opposite.
Yes, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma had no winter at all this year!
Reality is embarassing like that. I mention this to my clients when I deliver them a process model. Building models is easy, validation is slightly harder.
But the graphics are pretty.
No they don’t.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/793604479001/a-week-of-global-cooling.asp?channel=vbbastaj
Ha, that’s me and my pretty colorful plots of the global cooling…
Ryan,
Can you post a link?
Do you know if they used GCM’s or a different method for their seasonal climate predictions? If they did not use GCM’s, then they are using meterological models rather than climate models. In either case, I agree, no skill is displayed.
Climate models have weather models at their core. They run them with coarser time and spatial granularity, and add more parameters for things which change over time. Neither is very accurate beyond about 72 hours.
and it’s the same reason we get the cone of death from Rio to New York….
..when a hurricane is only one day away
I have Ryan’s charts bookmarked, so Ill post them on his behalf as I’m sure he has better things to do (:-
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/raw_temp_c.html#picture
This one gives a running log of temperature anomalies over the last 2 years :
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/jra25/global_temperature_anomalies.jpg