The red line represents the minimum amount of loss likely over the next month. It could melt back further than that, but probably not less.
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I assume that line was only drawn wrt the Alaskan side. Presumably, we can expect some losses in the Greenland Sea, for instance. I think it’d be interesting if the Greenland Sea ice remained, however, and I’d be curious as to the implications of having a stronger ice pack there this winter and how it affects flow out of the Fram Strait.
-Scott
Greenland Sea ice is all doomed ice and not really important.