Real Climate Science

Zeke and Mosher say that my analysis of their method is wrong, because I don’t use their method to analyze the output of their method.

After Sandy hit, Trenberth announced that global warming had caused the water to warm off the coast of New Jersey, forming a small warm spot in the midst of very cold water.

President Obama pulls off one of his biggest lies of the week. The US almost eliminated carbon pollution (soot) from power plants about 40 years ago, when we they were forced to use electrostatic precipitators.  His CO2 regs will accomplish none of the things he claims it will, but they will damage the economy and costs jobs.

The temperature record is calculated with a precision several orders of larger than its accuracy. Then they pat themselves on the back, and think they are being really smart.

Last summer’s record Arctic cold (red below) was tough on Reggie, and it looks like we are doing a repeat in 2014 (blue below)  Arctic temperatures dropped below normal about a month ago, and have stayed there ever since.

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

About 40% of the reported USHCN station data is now fabricated from no raw data at that station.

Zeke says that USHCN temperature fabrications of 40% of the data are golden, and my method of averaging the actual measured data is incorrect. Let’s put that to the test.

My approach (red below) closely matches satellite data (blue) and the USHCN method (green) doesn’t. Raw data and satellite data show almost no net warming since 1990, while NCDC adjusted data shows about 0.2C warming.

As stations disappear exponentially, the adjustments increase exponentially (graph below.) It is simply not credible that a set of random errors in a data set could produce such a pattern. Random errors produce bell shaped curves, not exponential curves. The only error in the data set which should produce a deterministic trend is UHI, and that would produce the exact opposite slope of adjustments.

Some people are heavily vested in a methodology which fails the most fundamental tests of credibility.

Since 1998, Illinois fabricated and non-fabricated adjusted temperatures have been diverging at a rate of 23 degrees per century.

Zeke Hausfather says that all of this disappears when you use anomalies and gridding, and that I am really stupid.

The Blackboard » How not to calculate temperature

Gridding over an area the size of Illinois would have minimal effect, because the state isn’t much larger than a grid cell. The only way this could happen is :

1. The algorithm being used to generate the manufactured temperatures is incorrect. Or
2. There has been massive selective loss of warmer temperature records, requiring filling in of much warmer temperatures than those that are measured.

My methodology assumes a Monte Carlo distribution of error, i.e. that the missing data is randomly distributed geographically and by month of year. This is the normal way which scientists work with large data sets. Climate scientists mess with the data and introduce nonsensical biases into their results.

You can get my USHCN C++ code (which shows the amount of fake data) here. It is simple enough to figure out and similar to the GHCN code. This downloads and runs much faster than the GHCN daily code. You can do the whole thing in a few minutes.

./get
cd into the newly created ushcn directory
ln -s ../ushcn.exe
ln-s ../ushcn-stations.txt
ln -s ../configure
./configure
./ushcn.exe US_final.tavg > US_final.csv
./ushcn.exe US_tob.tavg > US_tob.csv
./ushcn.exe US_raw.tavg > US_raw.csv

Around this time in 2012, NCDC made it clear that they were going to declare 2012 as the warmest year in US history – regardless of actual temperatures. We are starting to see the same thing with global temperatures in 2014.

“If we have the El Niño that most are predicting, I think there’s a good chance that it’ll end up breaking the global temperature record set in 2010,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University in College Station.

El Nino Bringing Heat – Business Insider

Satellite temperatures through May, 2014 show that there is no chance of 2014 coming anywhere close to record warmth and that 2014 is barely warmer than 1995, but actual data has no meaning at NCDC anymore. They are tasked by the White House to produce warming.

rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt

h/t to Dave G