The western Arctic has the most thick ice it has had since this time in 2007. This might lead a person to project that there will be minimal reduction in ice extent this summer.
But what happened in 2007? Very strong winds pushed the ice out of the Western Arctic.
So my prediction is “no prediction.”
Did you see this article about Michael Mann?
http://www.principia-scientific.org/michael-mann-faces-bankruptcy-as-his-courtroom-climate-capers-collapse.html
This has been discounted at WUWT as mere posturing from the “slayers”. Some very deep pockets are reputed to be funding the Mann, so his alleged bankruptcy is extremely unlikely. Meanwhile word has it that Steyn has levelled not one, but two countersuits.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/21/steyn-countersues-mann-for-10-millon-dollars/
If you would like to help Steyn you can buy one of many t-shirts and/or mugs. My favorite one is a long-sleeve shirt that says “I’m a scary conservative with a hidden agenda.” Should go over well on campus at the local college where I take art classes.
Perhaps it would be safe to say that the weather will again be spectacular this summer at the Summit Camp Golf and Country Club.
Damn. I hope there are still some rooms available at the country club hotel for my tour in July. “Summer at the Summit” ambrose event was a fantastic gig last year.
I’m believe we’ll have a good ice extent *IF* the AMO becomes steadily neutral or slightly negative in the coming months, starting now.
This would create more favorable winds at the NP.
I agree, the AMO is the key to arctic ice extent. Most of the drop began after 1995 when the AMO turned positive. As soon as the AMO turns negative again, as it always does, then the arctic ice extent will recover.
The patterns of wind direction in the Arctic appear more closely tied to PDO and ENSO. Most of the old ice was lost between 1988-1996 – during a period of record high ENSO.
You could be right, Steve. One thing is for sure, wind and ocean are much bigger influences than the CO2 in the atmosphere.
Made the mistake of watching National Geographic channel tonight, a propaganda episode on a starving polar bear called Ice Bear. This mythical bear can’t find food because all the ice is gone.
Now have to boycott Nat Geo as paid shills of the AGW industry.
GEE, and I just finished a novel where the bear was snacking on greenie hikers. The bear manged to polish off at least four before getting knocked off by a woman hunting guide with a rifle.
No bear is going to starve to death. Polar bears did just fine through the EEmian which was warmer than the Holocene.
my prediction is that in or around June 21, the sun won’t set in the Arctic, and that there will be temperatures..
Sunhine for 24 hours a day? That is unprecedented! We are all going to fry! We are all going to die!