A few years ago, Mark Serreze announced that the death spiral Arctic is screaming and had become as “ice island.”
The North Pole becomes an ‘island’ for the first time in history as ice melts
By FIONA MACRAE
UPDATED: 18:32 EST, 1 September 2008The North Pole has become an island for the first time in human history.
Startling satellite pictures taken three days ago show that melting ice has opened up the fabled North-West and North-East Passages – making it possible to sail around the Arctic ice cap.
The opening of the passages has been eagerly awaited by shipping companies which hope they will be able to cut thousands of miles off their routes.
But to climate change scientists it is yet another sign of the damage global warming is inflicting on the planet.
Mark Serreze, a sea ice specialist, described the images as an ‘historic event’ – but warned they added to fears that the Arctic icecap has entered a ‘death spiral’.
The pictures, produced by Nasa, mark the first time in at least 125,000 years that the two shortcuts linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have been ice-free at the same time.
Amazing. Walt Meier from NSIDC/NASA said that the Arctic was ice free sometime in the last 7,000 years.
The North Pole becomes an ‘island’ for the first time in history as ice melts | Mail Online
Sow how is Serreze’ screaming death spiral looking today? Both passages are closed.
Poor Mark. His mom is calling him to go home now.
But he cannot hear her because of the screaming in his head.
But he’s already living in her basement.
Well, now that the ice levels have climbed I guess it’s crickets? Chirp, chirp.
17,000 tonne RV Polarstern struggling to reach the pole: 5 degrees north in 10 days.
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=DBLK
I wonder if it’ll get stuck.
This Polarstern locator is real purdy http://www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/ships/polarstern/where_is_polarstern/
They have Greenland and Iceland as shallow seas.
Strange to relate, but it’s not getting stuck. Would you believe that the scientists on board for the Alpha Ridge-Lomonosov Ridge Expedition are actually doing some science along the Lomonosov Ridge?
http://www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/ships/polarstern/weekly_reports/all_expeditions/ps85_ps87_ark_xxviii/ps87/
We’ll wake you up when they’ve finished and the Polarstern goes full steam ahead once more.
More bullshit than science to this students eye … from their website: “ice physics” and “sedimentary evolution” … just makin’ stuff up IMHO.
“Would you believe that the scientists on board for the Alpha Ridge-Lomonosov Ridge Expedition are actually doing some science along the Lomonosov Ridge?”
As much as I believe Chris Turney was doing science when his ship got stuck in the Antarctic last year.
Thanks Sleepalot, for alerting us to this site. It gives us another temporary weather station in the area.
An unseasonable blast of cold air has been exiting the arctic over this boat, heading south to the North Atlantic.
I just read an awful thriller called “Arctic Rising” based on the premise that in 100 years all that will be left of the Arctic ice will be the size of Rhode Island and a huge city will be built on it for ships between Japan/Russia and Alaska to port.
My first thought was: How is a shrinking ice cap no more than 5 meters thick going to support the weight of a city?
Of course, it was global warming propaganda wrapped up in fiction.
The premise of a city / port built on thin ice is as solid as most climate science fiction 😉
OK, but I still get the Tim Hortons franchise.
My first thought was – when will Hank Johnson raise the specter of it capsizing.
The Arctic didn’t scream when on March 17, 1959, the nuclear submarine USS Skate surfaced at the North Pole and scattered Sir George Hubert Wilkins’ ashes over the Arctic Ice.
http://library.osu.edu/projects/under-the-north-pole/afterwards.html
and
http://archives.nbclearn.com/portal/site/k-12/flatview?cuecard=41751
I notice that when they surfaced at the Pole it wasn’t in September, when ice extent is at its lowest, but in the middle of March, when ice is at its thickest.
Likely they found a lead that had just frozen over, and surfaced where the ice was thinnest, however that means there was open water at that location only a day or so earlier.
However they did it, the ice at the site of the North Pole must have been very thin for them to break through. As you say for this to happen in March is remarkable.
What is remarkable is how the media has misinformed the public. They may just be ignorant themselves, but they communicate the idea that the ice is now “rotten,” and back on the 1970’s it was “solid.”
In fact the Arctic Sea is a heaving ocean that puts ice under constant stress. Ice is constantly jamming together to produce “pressure ridges” as tall as thirty feet, or splitting apart to produce long cracks of open water called “leads”, even when it is minus-forty and pitch dark.
To imagine the stress, just try to unload 4-by-8 sheets of plywood on a windy day. When the wind catches even that small area it just about rips your arms from their sockets. Think of the ripping power gale-force winds have when they hit a pressure-ridge thirty feet tall and several miles long. Because these winds vary greatly at any given moment on the Pole, there are places where sea-ice is converging and producing “pressure ridges,” or diverging and producing “leads.”
During the Cold War the US and Russian and British sub commanders knew all about pressure ridges and leads. Because 9/10th of an iceberg is under water, a pressure ridge that sticks up thirty feet has a “keel” that sticks down 270 feet. During their cold war games of hide-and-seek, subs could hide from the foe’s sonar by rising and hiding behind such a “keel”.
Those guys had to know a lot about the underside of the ice, to avoid damaging their subs, so of course they learned where the leads were, where the newly-formed ice was thin enough for a sub to surface, without the ice damaging it.
Those guys (i.e. the US Navy) continue to maintain that the sea ice in the Arctic is going to continue to melt:
http://econnexus.org/us-navy-2014-to-2030-arctic-roadmap/
“”As the perennial ice melts and open water is available for longer periods of time, we are committed to expanding our Arctic capabilities”
Are the Navy “misinforming the public”?
Jim, you accidentally stumbled into the truth! Yeah, in a corrupt government, you expect to find traces of corruption everywhere. NASA, NOAA, and even pockets within the military.
Short answer: “Yes.”
Longer answer: Besides soldiering and science, politics and public relations are involved. (If you parse that statement you’ll note two clauses either side of the comma, allowing wiggle-room.)
oooh ,an appeal to authority from jim . jim,the marines have stated they will be operationally combat ready with the f-35 no later than december 2015 ,considerably earlier than the other branches of us forces. others think the aircraft will never be combat ready due to many issues,though with the amount of money spent on it ,the us government will use it as an expensive ornament before they will admit to failure.
the heads of armed forces are just politicians jim ,and as capable of talking shit as al gore . so yes,they are misinforming the public,certainly the poor saps sitting up there waiting for the north west passage to open. this year you would not even attempt the northern route at any time without serious ice breaking capacity.
have you come up with the terms of our bet yet ? i have yet to find one single alarmist willing to bet their house on an ice free arctic at any time over the next 20 years,i may have to extend to 30 years,though the amount of cigarettes i smoke,i doubt i will be around that long.
Chilly – Having personally discussed the matter with Rear Admiral Jon White:
http://econnexus.org/the-economist-being-economical-with-the-truth-about-climate-change/
and having since publicly stated that I’m more pessimistic than him, how about $1000 in favour of ShelterBox on CT Area < 1 mio square kilometers by the summer of 2022 at the latest?
Jim, when you state you have “personally discussed the matter” does that mean you met the Admiral? Or did he merely respond to a tweet on twitter?
By the way, my mother’s third husband commanded a sub.
Caleb – If you bothered to click the link and read the article you wouldn’t need to ask dumb questions, would you? I met Rear Admiral White in person in Oslo in 2013.
(Jim is a little testy this morning. He just learned the Arctic is about to start the re-freeze. This is NOT supposed to happen with the oceans boiling….)
jim,leave out the appeals to authority,i no more give a shit about an admirals ( who is required to believe everything the government tell him in order to carry out his instructions in an unquestioning fashion) opinion than anyone else you may cite who has an opinion. in the big scheme of things,his opinion carries no more weight than yours or mine.
$1000 on ct area being less than 1million square kilometres at some point between now and 2022 sounds fine to me,we have a bet . remember ,this is where to send your $1000
http://www.chas.org.uk/how_we_help_families/our_hospices/rachel_house
The US Navy is no better than anyone else when/if they say a lie or unverified information, and if they say that the Arctic ice is increasingly melting they’re either misinformed or lying.
In either case, they should not express their opinions to avoid misleading the public.
Well, Jim, looks like it was Facebook, not Twitter.
To humor you I went to the link. I only got as far as the two pictures of Disko Bay, and the insinuation that less ice on that coast suggested warming.
Why the admiral would want to put his apparently gross ignorance on public display is a mystery to me. It was common knowledge that the meridianal pattern of last winter often involved a strong cross-polar-flow from the Laptev Sea across the Pole and down Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay.
Because Hudson Bay is closed at the bottom, there was a huge pile-up of ice in the south, and faint traces of that pile-up still floated in southern Hudson Bay even a week ago.
However, because Baffin Bay is not closed to the south, there was a huge export of ice southeast past Labrador, which had above-normal ice extents off its coast much of the winter.
With all the ice moving down the west coast of Baffin Bay, it meant that over on the east coast, even up at the very top, open water appeared even when temperatures were 40 below. (I know you know the word “Polynya,” Jim. Not only is ice pushed away from shore by howling winds, but surface water is pushed off shore, which results in slightly warmer water upwelling by the coast. )
I should think the admiral ought know as much as well, but if he knew more he was playing some game by withholding the information, thinking he looked smart when he simply looked like a dunce who doesn’t even know what a polynya is, or that the weather pattern in 2013 was very different from 2012. I have better things to do with my time than read the drivel of dunces, so I don’t know if he eventually got around to saying anything sensible, later in that Facebook post.
My experience with Washington big-shots is that many believe it is not what you know, but who you know. Consequently many know nothing that really matters, but do know a lot of other big-shots who also know nothing that really matters. They do know how to parrot politically correct talking-points, but never research in depth, (as I know you sometimes do, Jim.) They also know how to flatter and seek appointments by being rump-swabs and butt-kissers. (Why do you think some are called rear admirals?)
I know you can’t help but be a bit of a name-dropper, Jim, but you need to be careful about the names you drop. After all, you are known by the company you keep.
Tsk, tsk Caleb – After the admonition you handed me for allegedly “tampering” with US Navy visualisations you now feel justified in firing a broadside of ad homs against an Admiral of the self same service?
I suppose the 16 members of the CNA Military Advisory Board are all “rump-swabs and butt-kissers” as well?
http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/MAB_2014.pdf
(Jim is a little testy this afternoon. He just learned that the polar bear population is just fine, the ocean is not getting more acid, and record cold temperatures are occurring in both hemispheres.)
Jim, as to your fascination with “CNA”, what part of “corruption at the top” do you not understand?
Jim,
Here is someone else from the US Navy.
There will be no ice free Arctic this decade.
Jimbo – Here is a recording of what Professor Wieslaw Maslowski was actually saying at that time:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/shock-news-why-isnt-the-arctic-ice-free/
For the umpteenth time of asking, a “projection” is not the same thing as a “prediction”.
For the umpteenth time, parsing words, “spin”, mis-direction, and obfuscation are not indicators that someone seeks the truth.
Yesterday, I commented on “Climate Progress” that Arctic sea ice is up approximately 50% during the past 2 years. The net result was that the comment was deleted. That is definitely “settled science”, to delete comments whenever factual information does not match up with your dogma.
Well, now the new time frame is that the Arctic will be ice free in about 2100. Let me guess, nothing about the last 2 years, but overall decline is what they are saying.
I’ll have a field day if the ice ever exceeds historical averages, and the lake behind Hoover Dam starts spilling again, which is unlikely because they are pulling more water out of it, mostly because of the criticism of the Army Corp from the flooding that resulted in the early 1990’s.
The NWP was probably open also at some point during the WWII years and/or at the late 1960’s, early 70’s. It’s too bad we don’t have detailed information about the Arctic ice at those periods.
It happens cyclically, especially in times of solar grand maximum as during the entire XX century.
Canada probably has info somewhere …. try Dr Tim Balls site for a starter: http://drtimball.com/
I neither condemn nor condone this site owner nor his site, although contains much that is fantasy, it has within it some points of interest and some gems…
http://www.seaclimate.com/_ToC/_ToC.html
Thanks!
“mark the first time in at least 125,000 years”
Now, that’s a good trick. Who was observing the Arctic ice in 122,986BC?
pretty sure jim knows whoever it was personally 🙂
So how is Serreze’ screaming death spiral looking today?
https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/statuses/503116963015835648
ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/Arc_20140822_res3.125.png
Jim, playing the adolescent game of “I gotcha” is, well, just adolescent. But, if you play the game, and you get the facts wrong, it’s just “kiddie”. So, let me help you to understand.
We are at the peak of the Arctic melt. The important word is “peak”. Get it, Jim? PEAK.
So, the peak of the melt season is NOT the “screaming death spiral” you so desperately desire. You are “picking cherries”, but this “cherry” is an onion.
Now, I’ll let you get back to your TV cartoon shows.
Geran – It was Steve/Tony who introduced the term “screaming death spiral” in his/their original post, not me. He also said “Both passages are closed”.
Meanwhile back in the real world there are currently 555 vessels with official “Permission for navigation on the water area of the Northern Sea Route” this year:
http://asmp.morflot.ru/en/razresheniya/
Conditions on the NSR are currently officially described as “Easy” or better:
https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/statuses/503156240152014849
What are you watching on your TV at the moment? I don’t have one BTW.
You, purposely, continue to miss the point. You are “cherry-picking” to try to prove you are right and “Dr. Goddard” is wrong. You are DENYing the science. The sea ice opens and closes, on occasions. Caleb has tried to explain that to you.
Selecting ONE period of a slight “Northwest Passage” means NOTHING, historically. It is Bad Science (BS). It’s like trying to take a photo at midnight as proof that the Sun has “gone out”. The photo is correct, but the scientific conclusion is WRONG.
(But, please continue with your BS, we enjoy it.)
Geran – You, (presumably) purposely, continue to miss the point.
Whatever “Dr. Goddard” may type, and whatever graphics he may display here, the Northern Sea Route is currently very much “open for business”.
I’m very pleased to hear that you’re enjoying “the debate” as much as I am!
At the risk of repeating myself, please continue with your BS. It is highly instructive to those not familiar with how weak Warmists’ arguments really are.
ROFL. Defending cherry-picking by accusing others of cherry-picking.
But thanks for parading your complete lack of reading comprehension. Let me type real slowly for you. In this thread, Goddard state that the northern sea route is closed to shipping. At the end of August 2014. At the *peak* of the arctic ice melt. Hunt counters with an end-of-august satellite image showing the route is open, and also provides data on the number of vessels operating, at the end of august, along the supposedly closed route.
Goddard picked the time. Hunt provided the evidence for that time. Precisely what cherry do you think Hunt picked?