My Arctic Forecast

Arctic ice extent will continue to decline for a couple of days, then a cyclone near the North Pole will begin spreading the ice, and the extent curve will turn back towards the median.

The minimum this summer will likely be close to the 2006 minimum, which was the highest minimum of the past decade.

About Tony Heller

Just having fun
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22 Responses to My Arctic Forecast

  1. tom0mason says:

    Unless Mark Serreze restars the global tumble drier and sticks it on Death Spiral.
    Failing that government agencies will adjust all the figures.

  2. Andy says:

    I think it is closest to last year at the moment, not going to predict the summer minina, can’t tell what it will be.

    Andy

  3. Jim Hunt says:

    My latest Arctic forecast is more short term than yours Tony, and rather more precise too.

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/shock-news-breathtakingly-ignorant-deranged-blogger-batting-1000-this-summer/#comment-398196

    “CT area decline of around 180 k over the next two days”. I guess that equates to “CT Arctic sea ice area will reverse and then decline for a couple of days”?

  4. Eric Simpson says:

    The minimum this summer will likely be close to the 2006 minimum
    That will be huge if that happens.
    Break out the bubbly!

  5. philjourdan says:

    Gutsy to go with a forecast, but then the great ones risk it to gain the glory.

  6. markpro3ger says:

    regardless of 2 and 3 day predictions…the ice is doing spectacularly well this year! i am looking t the 30% graph and keep being surprised.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

  7. mjc says:

    The Jaxa graph uses coastal masking so comparing it to the above graph is not worth it.

    Using the DMI graph that does use masking, the JAXA graph actually shows MORE ice, overall…

    • Jim Hunt says:

      Why is taking a look at it “not worth it”? Why is the JAXA graph any better or worse as a measure for Arctic sea ice extent than the DMI graph? I agree comparing one directly with another doesn’t necessarily prove a whole lot, but why not compare JAXA 2014 with JAXA 2006 for example?

  8. Jim Hunt says:

    Can you specify error bars Tony, instead of “likely be close”?

    Which particular flavour of extent metric are you referring to by the way? As has been discussed above and elsewhere recently, there are an awful lot of them!

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