Six Years Since Serreze Predicted An Ice-Free North Pole

Mark Serreze says I am breathtakingly ignorant. He also predicts the North Pole will be ice-free in 2008

Fri June 27, 2008   North Pole could be ice-free this summer, scientists say

The North Pole may be briefly ice-free by September as global warming melts away Arctic sea ice, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

“We kind of have an informal betting pool going around in our center and that betting pool is ‘does the North Pole melt out this summer?’ and it may well,” said the center’s senior research scientist, Mark Serreze.

North Pole could be ice-free this summer, scientists say –

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13 Responses to Six Years Since Serreze Predicted An Ice-Free North Pole

  1. Disillusioned says:

    Looks like ‘Death Spiral Serreze’ just put his Death Spiral on hold…for about four decades:
    “He and colleague Erick Rogers from the Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center in Mississippi write in their paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters that even further reduction of sea ice cover in the future should “result in larger waves, which in turn provide a mechanism to break up sea ice and accelerate ice retreat.”

    Several climate models suggest that the Arctic Ocean will be seasonally ice free by the middle of this century. The breakup of the sea ice from the waves, Serreze said, “should accelerate the timeframe.”

    • Disillusioned says:

      It’s amazing how he can extrapolate the future based on summer storms in the Arctic two years ago. He’s truly a savant. /sarc

    • _Jim says:

      Looks like ‘Death Spiral Serreze’ just put his Death Spiral on hold…for about four decades:

      In any other field that would be taken as ‘capitulation’ (as in: “An admission of a failed forecast by Serreze”). From this point forward ANY ‘forecast’ or ‘extrapolation’ by Serreze should be treated as worthless; even plain dirt would have more value.


  2. philjourdan says:

    Could be ice free any year, then again it could not be.

  3. Jason Calley says:

    Mr. Serrez is describing a system where he is allowed to extrapolate polar ice coverage based on readings taken 1200 kilometers away.

  4. wwlee4411 says:

    Reblogged this on wwlee4411 and commented:
    Where’s Al Gore when you need him?

  5. spetzer86 says:

    I wonder who picked “never” in the pool?

  6. bit chilly says:

    what are these climate models that predicted arctic ice loss as a first sign of cagw he speaks of ?
    i think the time may have arrived for the modelers to reconsider what they are doing,as currently all the mdels prove is climate science is in its infancy,and there are a lot of people willing to cast personal integrity aside for a slice of the tax payer funding pie.

  7. Jimbo says:

    Even if he got an ice-free north pole it wouldn’t be new or alarming. Last century and this century the north pole has been ice free. ‘Northing’ to see here, move along.

    New York Times – May 18, 1926
    Lincoln Ellsworth of the Amundsen-Ellsworth transpolar expedition told The Associated Press here today that he saw much open water at the North Pole when he and his sixteen companions passed over it last Tuesday night in the dirigible Norge.

    Edmonton Journal – 29 May 1928
    Reported Open Water Near the North Pole

    Ottawa Citizen – Apr 3, 1969
    North Pole is the goal
    …While the Pole itself doesn’t move, the ice above it does – sometimes there is open water at the site and hitting the exact loca-tion is no easy chore….

    New York Times – 29 August 2000
    “The fact of having no ice at the pole is not so stunning,” said Dr. Claire L. Parkinson, a climatologist at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “But the report said the ship encountered an unusual amount of open water all the way up. That is reason for concern.”

    New York Times – 29 August 2000
    Correction: August 29, 2000, Tuesday A front-page article on Aug. 19 and a brief report on Aug. 20 in The Week in Review about the sighting of open water at the North Pole misstated the normal conditions of the sea ice there. A clear spot has probably opened at the pole before, scientists say, because about 10 percent of the Arctic Ocean is clear of ice in a typical summer. The reports also referred incompletely to the link between the open water and global warming. The lack of ice at the pole is not necessarily related to global warming.

    Common Dreams – 4 September 2000
    Climate Change Has The World Skating On Thin Ice
    by Lester R. Brown

    “If any explorers had been hiking to the North Pole this summer, they would have had to swim the last few miles. The discovery of open water at the Pole by an ice-breaker cruise ship in mid August surprised many in the scientific community.”

    NOAA Faqs – found 18 November 2013
    10. Is it true that the North Pole is now water?
    Recently there have been newspaper articles describing the existence of open water at the North Pole. This situation is infrequent but has been known to occur as the ice is shifted around by winds. In itself, this observation is not meaningful.

    Naval History & Heritage | U.S. Naval Institute – August 11, 2011 [1959 ???]
    USS Skate (SSN-578) Becomes the First Submarine to Surface at the North Pole
    …The date was 11 August 1958 and the Skate had just become the first submarine to surface at the North Pole….

    [89] U.S. and British sailors explore the Arctic ice cap while conducting the first U.S./British coordinated surfacing at the North Pole. The ships are, left to right: the nuclear-powered attack submarine Sea Devil (SSN-664), the fleet submarine HMS Superb (S-109) , and the nuclear-powered attack submarine Billfish (SSN-676), 18 May 1987.

  8. Dave N says:

    Maybe he was mis-heard and actually said “icy pole”?

  9. gregole says:

    That Man-made CO2 blowtorch just fizzled out… No problem for Climate Science, just push that death-spiral out till sometime past retirement; and keep up the fake forecasts. I think it is kind of weird though that these people are actually getting paid to study the Arctic and you know, be like experts and stuff. They sure don’t seem to have any idea what they are talking about. Now who was paying them? Oh, you and me.

  10. TomC says:

    What the idiot unwittingly gave away is that there’s a bunch of other like-minded idiots there at NSIDC. I wonder how many there in the pool bet on the North Pole being ice-free?

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