It is easy for us laymen to become confused by the words of scientists. For example, when Nobel Laureate Albert Arnold Gore predicted an ice-free Arctic in 2014, what he really meant was 2014 would be the summer when Arctic sea ice extent returns to the mean.
COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Breathtakingly ignorant people like myself simply aren’t qualified to interpret the words of such a brilliant scientist.
By Gorge, I think he’s got it!
One thing that can increase the “extent” graph even before the refreeze is to have the ice crack up and spread out. Area may remain the same but extent will increase. One thing that has not happened much this summer is to have the ice spread out in that manner. It remains fairly tightly packed, even where it was broken up to many bergs by winter storms.
The best way to get an idea how packed the ice is utilizes the satellite view. Unfortunately those darn cosmic rays from Svenmark’s quiet sun have made it fairly cloudy all summer, but if you go to http://www.arctic.io/explorer/ you can see a few clear places, and if you go there regularly you can get an idea what is up with the ice. It is nowhere near as spread out as it was last year.
I just went and zoomed in at a few places where there were no clouds. You can locate where your cursor is by using the little longitude-latitude box to the lower left. Spread-out ice, like it was last year, can be seen at 133.2, 74.00, and packed ice can be seen north of Greenland at 72.4, 83.8.
The ice that was up by the Pole in April was pulverized by winter storms, and next time it is clear you can check it out roughly 300 miles south, towards Svalbard. Last time I checked it was still tightly packed, though pulverized. However the ice that slid in to replace it at the Pole was a solid sheet, showing faint signs that it was pulverized last summer but was frozen together by winter. The nearest camera is O-buoy 9. Today a crack that formed way back in early May at long last began spreading open as a narrow lead. See the picture at the bottom of my post at http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2014/07/27/arctic-sea-ice-melt-the-death-spirals-debunking/
This is the sort of open water submarines surfaced in, way back in the 1950’s, so keep that in mind if the lead grows wide, and Alarmists notice the open water, and headlines proclaim “The Pole Is Melting!”
The good thing is that if the solid sheet of ice cracks up and spreads out, the extent graph could go up. It may not matter a hill of beans in terms of climate, but to have the extent graph go up when it should be going down does turn certain Alarmists a most lovely shade of green.
And those “inconvenient” clouds seem to be interfering with that so-called “polar amplification”
About all big Al can hope for is Reginald getting his blowtorch “straightened-out”…..
Those massive adjustments haven’t panned out. Maybe it’s time to try something else.
If much more of this keeps up, we won’t have to worry about what color they’ll turn…their heads will just explode and we won’t have to worry about them any longer. (One can hope?)
Thanks Caleb, I’m always learning a little more with your posts. 🙂
I think you mean the meaningless mean.
OK, here is my guess, and you can laugh at it at end if it is rubbish.
Minimum ice extent will be between 2009 and 2013.
🙂
Andy
It’s not, IMO, depending on the intensity of the solar radiations.
If the radiations get really low in the next two months, for whatever reason it may be, then I think Steve’s prediction of ~ 2006 could happen. If we go back to Jan-Feb levels of radiation, I don’t see how the ice could stand the increased amount of energy and it’d probably start to melt at an accelerated rate and your prediction or even less (~ 2010) could occur.
I’m quite confident that no extreme surprises, for the “non alarmists”, like 2012 could happen anymore.
IMO the ice extent will stabilize more evidently only in 2015, when the solar max ends.