After Predicting A New Ice Age, Chicago Tribune Predicted Florida Would Drown

3 Responses to After Predicting A New Ice Age, Chicago Tribune Predicted Florida Would Drown

1. DD More says:

   November 5, 2015 at 5:46 pm

   March 2, 1975 & the Trib is confirming that:

   The current start of Arctic Sea ice is a high point. In the last decade, the Arctic ice and snow cap has expanded 12 per cent,

   There was a ‘Little Ice Age’. No scientist is forecasting a full-scale Ice Age soon, but some predict that in a few decades there might be little ice ages like the ones which plagued Europe with severe winters from 1430 to 1850.

   “Wilson Smith, you missed another one.”

   Reply
2. Gail Combs says:

   November 5, 2015 at 6:16 pm

   “No scientist is forecasting a full-scale Ice Age soon….”

   Well not quite.

   A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic D18O records
   Lisiecki & Raymo (2005)
   ABSTRACT
   We present a 5.3-Myr stack (the ‘‘LR04’’ stack) of benthic d18O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic d18O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka,…

   RESULTS
   Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA Community Members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with d18O values below 3.6% for 20 kyr, from 398 – 418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6% for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398– 418 ka as from 250–650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the 21 June insolation minimum at 65°N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence….

   The fall 2012 paper Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? agrees with Lisieck and Raymo …

   …although it has been unclear whether the subdued current summer insolation minimum (479 W m?2 ), the lowest of the last 800 kyr, would be sufficient to lead to glaciation (e.g. Crucifix, 2011). Comparison with MIS 19c, a close astronomical analogue characterized by an equally weak summer insolation minimum (474 W m?2 ) and a smaller overall decrease from maximum summer solstice insolation values, suggests that glacial inception is possible despite the subdued insolation forcing, if CO2 concentrations were 240 ± 5 ppmv (Tzedakis et al., 2012). …..

   An older paper from 2007 also agrees Lesson from the past: present insolation minimum holds potential for glacial inception

   ….Because the intensities of the 397 ka BP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial. Our findings support the Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman, W., 2003. The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era began thousands of years ago. Climate Change 61, 261–293], which proposes that early anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission prevented the inception of a glacial that would otherwise already have started….
   http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379107002715

   Reply
3. Gail Combs says:

   November 5, 2015 at 6:18 pm

   Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? (Forgot to link it, sorry)

   Reply