My Current Ice-Free Arctic Forecast

Climate experts say the Arctic is already ice-free, and that an area larger than Texas is zero size.

Arctic could become ice-free for first time in more than 100,000 years, claims leading scientist | The Independent

The actual Arctic Ocean is full of ice, and very little melting is occurring.

icen2017072418_2017080100_046_arcticicen.001.gif (754×667)

97% of experts say the Arctic will soon be ice-free, so I have updated my forecast. The Arctic will be ice free on December 11, at 3:15 AM.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

This will happen at temperatures well below freezing, because 97% of experts say the Arctic is melting. And they would never lie to obtain research funding.

10-Day Temperature Outlook

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49 Responses to My Current Ice-Free Arctic Forecast

  1. AndyG55 says:

    3…. 2….. 1…. ;-)

  2. dennisambler says:

    NASA – Arctic Meltdown February 27, 2001

    “The Arctic ice cap is melting at a rate that could allow routine commercial shipping through the far north in a decade and open up new fisheries. But a report for the US Navy seen by New Scientist reveals that naval vessels will be unable to police these areas.

    Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. “Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there,”he predicts. “

    • Kris J says:

      “….allow routine commercial shipping through the far north in a decade and open up new fisheries”…. To most common sense, freedom loving people, this seems pretty GOOD

      • AndyG55 says:

        Yep, the opening up of the Arctic, with lower levels of sea ice like before the LIA, would be a MASSIVE BENEFIT to all people living in the region.

        Only people who HATE other people would wish the extreme levels of Arctic sea ice, that allows only sporadic travel in mid summer, to remains so high. !

    • sunsettommy says:

      I didn’t realize Peter was wrong that long ago. I am sure Griff will try to explain this one…………………

      “Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. “Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there,”he predicts.”


      • Colorado Wellington says:

        In a way, he’s one of the more reliable predictors of the future. He has a respectably long history of being wrong.

      • AndyG55 says:

        To be fair, they do get a week or two of trade/commerce time,

        Those Soviet ice-breakers do a great job !!

        The new ones nuclear powered, heated hull ones, could make quite a dent on Arctic sea ice in narrow channels, allowing much more trade.

        • AndyG55 says:

          from wiki.. (yeah, I know I shouldn’t)

          “In May 2015 it was also reported that Russia had made a principal decision on the development of the conceptual design for a new nuclear-powered icebreaker. According to Sergey Kirienko, Director General of State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom, the new icebreaker could move across the Arctic ice of any thickness up to 4.5 metres (15 ft). The new icebreaker will reportedly have the propulsion power of 110 MW.[8] If built this new icebreaker would be almost twice as powerful as the LK-60Ya-class icebreakers. The LK-110Ya-class nuclear icebreaker (ЛК-110Я (ru)) will be capable of ensuring year-round navigability of the Northern Sea Route”

          I’ll repeat that middle bit.

          “the new icebreaker could move across the Arctic ice of any thickness up to 4.5 metres (15 ft).

          Wait… but, but… I though there wasn’t going to be any ice. !!!

      • Griff says:

        The NW passage has been open to cargo vessels, without ice breaker support for a decade.

        The Northern Sea rout off Russia sees increased trade every year…
        It is 95% or better open this year already.

        • gator69 says:

          Ms Griff is shooting for 8 million dead this year.

        • AndyG55 says:

          griff says this is 95% open

          ROFLMAO !!!!

          • AndyG55 says:

            It should be noted that the route Larsen took in 1944..

            … is totally and absolutely BLOCKED. !!

          • AndyG55 says:

            Route that Northabout scurried through with all motors burning fuel…

            is TOTALLY BLOCKED

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Oh, it’s not totally blocked, Andy. What’s a sad little ice floe here and there among friends? With a little skill you can run cruise ships back and forth like there is no tomorrow. You just need to know how.

            Skipper Litau, the magnificent bastard, used a Russian nautical technique called “dawdle and scurry“. He waited until a narrow passage opened between the Siberian coast and the southern edge of the sea ice. Then he pulled up the Northabout’s retractable keel and with draft reduced to 1.4 meters he motored through the shallow waters. That’s how you do it with a sail boat.

            And that’s how we know that the Arctic is virtually ice-free because of global warming and ships can pass through at will. With sea ice extent collapsed to 1 wadhams, the nuclear-powered icebreakers the Russians are always building will be either sold for scrap or converted to Staten Island ferries.

            Repent and sin no more, you climate denier.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Of course, that was in June last year when NPR and Russia were still friends, Hillary was going to win by landslide and reset her relationship with Putin again.

            Things are different now because we know that Putin has a secret deal with Trump to sell him all those ice-breakers for pennies on a dollar and that’s just wrong.

        • Andy DC says:


          The US National Ice Center and US Navy currently show Arctic Sea Ice slightly above the mean for the last 10 years. Why do you insist on spreading lies that there is anything unusually subnormal about the ice at this time? You are contradicting your very own beloved US Government scientists.

          Not only that, but it has made a remarkable recovery from the unusually low levels of early spring. The summer is obviously not turning out nearly as well for alarmists as earlier anticipated.

          • AndyG55 says:

            MASIE is showing current sea ice above that of 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2016.

      • AndyG55 says:

        WONDERFUL for commerce, isn’t it griff.

        ..and WONDERFUL for all the people living up there.

        Back a very small way to the open waters of before the bitter cold of the Little Ice Age.

        Why are you SO HATEFUL that you would wish those people to have to exist through bitterly cold winters every year.

        Why would you wish to deprive them of opportunities for travel, commerce, fishing etc etc ???

        Why do you HATE other people so much ?

        Is it your inner embarrassment from your constant bed-wetting ??

      • Stewart Pid says:

        Griff are you really so thick that you didn’t bother to read your link and pick up on the fact that it isn’t a lack of ice that has shipping increased but the increase in shipping is down to sending material for the Yamal Natural Gas Liquids project. Are you totally ignorant on cause and effect thinking. Are you totally stupid on economics?
        Are you just plain dumb as a post? As Tony sez … do you have the IQ of a turnip?

        I was checking Hudson Bay yesterday and there is still significant ice on most reporting sites while the one you quoted ~ 10 days ago (Brennan?) showed no ice at that time. If you source your info at warmest sites you will be ignorant of the true state of the arctic.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Russian data… you know, the guys with all the ice-breakers up in the Arctic…

          … also shows sea ice in many places where griff’s Arctic bed-wetter site reference doesn’t.

        • AndyG55 says:

          So we have Bremen, in the centre of AGW-scam socialist Mercel German territory, nowhere near the Arctic…

          against the Russian data, confirmed regularly from ice-breakers.

          hmmmm. !!

  3. Buck Turgidson says:

    The chart looks like classic “government science.”

  4. Buck Turgidson says:

    Waiting for the next ship of fools from some dopey NGO to go sailing into the Arctic to explore the reduction in sea ice extent — and then get caught in the ice and radio for help to get themselves unstuck (typical leftist stupidity and incompetence, can’t make it up ha ha ha ha ha).

  5. -B- says:

    Now remove all years except the current.
    See how many people run with it.
    So so tempting.

  6. Brian D says:

    Looks like the current weather pattern is going to continue for the rest of the month. Lower pressure over the basin with re-enforcing areas of low pressure moving in from Siberia. Low pressure lingers over the Canadian side, as well.

  7. Andy DC says:

    During the middle of summer, you can walk across the ice from northern Canada, across the north pole and then all the way to the coast of Russia. Not bad at all, considering the Arctic is supposed to be ice free by now.

  8. willys36 says:

    Again , one of the funniest graphs I have ever seen. Kudos Tony.

  9. AndyG55 says:

    Actually, It looks like Wadhams was correct.

    According to my calculations, 2016 was ice free in early June.. See diagram below.

  10. Griff says:

    If you combine that ice concentration map with the ice thickness:

    and look at some extent graphs which are a bit clearer than the DMI one:

    you can clearly see that 2017 is very close to last year in extent, but with thinner ice and 5 weeks of the melt season to go.

    There is little chance this year won’t be in the lowest 4 extents.

    Absolutely certain it won’t be higher than pre-2007 levels.

    • gator69 says:

      If you combine that ice concentration map with the ice thickness…

      You will find that niether killed anyone. But if you look at alarmist demands for climate science spending, you will find millions of dead bodies as a direct result.

    • AndyG55 says:

      Russian map is perfectly clear that there is STILL one heck of a lot more sea ice up there than there was for 90-95% of the last 10,000 years.

      It really hasn’t recovered that much from the massive EXTREMES of the LIA and late 1970’s, has it, griff.

      Pity, because the people living up there could do with some open water for a change. ! Fishing, travel, commerce..

      … all the things people living in WARM area take for granted and were once possible before the LIA.

      Why do you have such a HATRED of other people, griff?

      Its unhealthy, and you really need to get a life..

      btw, how is your inner city fossil-fuelled ghetto going , griff?

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