New Arctic Sea Ice Forecast.

Yesterday I forecast that the Arctic would be ice-free on November 10, with temperatures at -15C.  The slow melt this summer has forced me to make a more conservative forecast that the Arctic won’t be ice-free until Christmas, with temperatures at -30C.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

This brings my forecast in line with NASA’s top climate prophet, James Hansen, who says the Arctic will definitely be ice-free before 2018.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

Note that my forecast is quite a bit more conservative than Nobel Laureate Al Gore, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his outstanding climate research. He says that the Arctic has been ice-free for three years.

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

National Geographic, which made their reputation by publishing photographs of topless adolescents in the South Pacific, says that the North Pole has been ice-free for a decade.

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

President Obama’s science advisor, John Holdren, agrees with my forecast of an ice-free Arctic at -30C.

…if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, it’s going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere.

John Holdren, 2009

Note that my forecast is completely consistent with a North Pole that has had below average temperatures every day this summer, and only has a few weeks left above freezing.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Only 1,300 miles of 2-3 meter thick ice needs to melt in the next six weeks, at temperatures below 1C. This seems quite plausible based on ™Michael Mann ®Gavin Schmidt climate math.

DMI Modelled ice thickness

One more note. Only a complete moron would believe anything which government funded climate scientists say. They are some of the most dishonest and corrupt people in America.

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57 Responses to New Arctic Sea Ice Forecast.

  1. Jimmy Haigh says:

    Just wait until October. You’ll be predicting an ice age starting next spring.

  2. Steven Fraser says:

    I sent DMI a note, asking why the chart is stuck on July 9. Will let you know what they say.

  3. Norilsk says:

    I’m still debating whether to fly to Inuvik in September or December. The matter of the MacKenzie River being frozen enough to drive over or not is a problem. My daughter says if it’s not safe enough to drive over, the helicopter ride from Inuvik to Tsiigehtchic will cost me $5,000. Ouch! This what the MacKenzie River looks like in August.,-133.7601127,3a,75y,11.54h,99.48t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1swvdO35mpEMkDB-8sPjdRuw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

  4. Pathway says:

    ” Only a complete moron would believe anything which government funded climate scientists say.”

    • Griff says:

      The DMI, University of Bremen, NSIDC and Jaxa and PIOMAS etc, etc figures all show low ice extent, thin ice, low ice mass.

      That’s multiple academic and govt sources in multiple countries.

      To believe they were all got at and all in collusion to post fake figures would be to admit lunacy of the first order…

      • gator69 says:

        The complete moron took the bait! And now Ms Griff is yapping once again about perfectly normal ice conditions, but then she just cannot help herself, because she really <b<hates poor brown people.

      • sunsettommy says:

        The Troll Griff,

        Meanwhile as usual you ignore all those climate experts predictions of the last 12 years, that have never come close to being correct.

        You have ignored numerous evidence that the decline has stopped since 2006.

        You also as usual ignored the numerous science papers posted here,showing that for most of the time BEFORE the LIA came along,the Arctic ice level was lower than it is now.

        Yet the world was no worse off than now for all those years of the past,while CO2 level was around the 260-280 range for most of the time.

        You are dishonest and a liar.

      • R Shearer says:

        Thanks for proving the point

      • Brad says:

        So all the Tobacco companies, world wide, didn’t conspire to hide data showing smoking is bad for you? That would be too much work? Only a moron would believe such drivel, lunacy of the first order even.

      • Andy DC says:

        You will note that NOAA and the US Navy are saying that current sea ice is exactly normal for the last 10 years. Great recovery after a lousy end of last winter.

        There is no death spiral and the ice is not thin, low mass, etc.

        Ms. Griff, you are the one creating your own fake news with no basis in fact, and you are the one contradicting your beloved US Government. Ms. Griff, you are the delusional one that believes in silly, discredited comic book nonsense, namely catastrophic warming and human extinction from a harmless gas that constitutes .04% of the atmosphere.

  5. Adrian Roman says:

    It’s always fun to laugh at climastrological linear thinking about non-linear systems :)

  6. Griff says:

    Even the chart posted shows most of the arctic is under 3m thick – over half of it under 1 m

    and if you mapped the concentration on top, you’d see that a very large area is broken ice – not 100% ice covered by any means.

    and if you looked at the mass/volume charts, you’d see that the amount of ice left in the arctic to melt was the lowest in the satellite era (37 years)

    This can still melt out to a new, lower than 2012 record…

    • gator69 says:

      Ms Griff’s preferred alternative…

    • sunsettommy says:

      Your link is unsafe,you trying to screw someone?

      • Griff says:

        Its a US navy link. Are you saying you don’t trust your Navy?

        • sunsettommy says:

          I know what it is,but it shows this:

          “Your connection is not secure

          The owner of has configured their website improperly. To protect your information from being stolen, Firefox has not connected to this website.

          Learn more…

          Report errors like this to help Mozilla identify and block malicious sites”

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Ms Griff doesn’t understand the difference between not trusting an unsecured website and an entire branch of the armed forces.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            That’s par for the course for her, though.

            Alarmists like her don’t understand the difference between distrusting specific dubious scientific claims versus “denying science!”.

          • tonyheller says:

            There is nothing wrong with that link. It is from a Navy site. I use it all the time.

          • sunsettommy says:

            Went further to get this,

            “ uses an invalid security certificate. The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown. The server might not be sending the appropriate intermediate certificates. An additional root certificate may need to be imported. Error code: SEC_ERROR_UNKNOWN_ISSUER”

          • Griff says:

            Well I have seen that in the past, but now using https it seems to have a secure link

            It may depend on how you access it…

            This is a site worth watching… you can find it linked from here, which should work without problems

          • Gator69 says:

            Why is this site worth watching? There is nothing unusual or unprecedented going on at either pole.

            Why do you hate poor brown people Ms Griff?

  7. Jack says:

    Congratulations Tony, now that you have forecast an Arctic ice fee world, expect the checks to start arriving in your mailbox :)

  8. Brian D says:

    Todays wx map of the Arctic.

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