In 1886, Texas was hit by four hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
Harvey will be the first Texas hurricane since Ike in 2008, and will of course be blamed on “climate change.”
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Hurricane force wind speed probability is less than 40%…..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092017_wind_probs_64_F120+png/092930.png
but tropical storm force winds are likely to be as widespread in Houston.
This will most likely be a very expensive storm. Mostly from flooding around Houston.
Houston will be getting from 10-15″ of rain. Combine that with no power and there are going to be some miserable folks there.
If I lived there I’d be seriously considering evacuating for a few days.
I forgot to mention the storm surge that will mean that the water that needs to be pumped out of Houston will have no place to go.
The CCW rotation of the storm that’s estimated to be parked south of Houston will keep the SE winds coming into shore.
A good mate of mine has just moved to Houston from Madrid.
Interesting link. Mashable has an article as of this morning via DrudgeReport saying that up to 30 inches of rain could fall and also be the first “cat 3+ storm to hit in 11 years.”
How they square that with NOAA’s prediction of wind field strength, I haven’t a clue.
The cone is the probability in any one area. The lower percentage reflects the uncertainty due to the fact that the center of the storm could be on either side of the cone.
Regardless, the 10 am CDT update has moved that chance into the 60-70% range now.
As time progresses, of course the forecast is going to change but “hurricane force winds” meet that threshold at 74 mph – which, when you look at The Weather Channel predicting 110-125 mph winds at landfall and a strong cat 3/”possible” cat-4 hurricane, means that I’d expect the probability of HFW’s be much, much higher at the coast.
Something about the discrepancy between TWC’s predictions and NOAA’s just isn’t making sense to me.
AZ1971: “Something about the discrepancy between TWC’s predictions and NOAA’s just isn’t making sense to me.”
There are many things that don’t make sense. The latest 7:00AM CDT NHC advisory, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/251145.shtml , claims “Maximum sustained winds … 110 MPH … 175 KM/H”, just below Cat 3 level.
Area buoys which measure official surface wind speeds can be found here: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
The closest NOAA buoy to the storm center right now, 42045 , http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42045 , which is ~40mi from the eye is reporting (latest value 6:30AM) only 33.0 knots, or 38 MPH, which is just under the tropical storm range of 37-73 MPH.
It will be interesting to monitor the buoy wind speeds as Harvey makes landfall. When Sandy made landfall the windspeeds were only tropical storm levels for all NOAA ocean buoys in the area.
The NOAA definition of storm category, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml , is based on “maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average)”. In Nov. 2015 NOAA added a new definition of maximum sustained wind speed which included “(at an elevation of 10 meters with an unobstructed exposure)”. Prior to this there was nothing about 10m elevation, so actual anemometer measurements were used. Now it appears that they calculate a 10m value from the actual measured value, which for buoy 42045 is at 3.4m above the surface. The 6:30AM CDT value for buoy 42045 is 38.9 kts, or 5.9 kts higher than the actual measured wind speed.
This appears to be just one more way to hype hurricane strengths by using calculated, not actual measured data.
None of the coastal buoys measured hurricane strength winds when Sandy hit. That storm was hyped by using calculated wind speeds at high altitudes based on their plane flight data. It’s sad to watch the corruption of science caused by this global warming religion.
I am afraid this is going to be the real deal and Harvey could very well could be a legitimate CAT3 when it makes landfall. Harvey is in the process of rapidly intensifying and with very little shear and very warm water, there is no reason to believe that it won’t keep getting stronger until landfall tomorrow night.
I believe an even worse aspect is likely to be very major flooding in the Houston area. Harvey is forecast to stall and fling band after band of torrential squalls into the metro area for a period of at least 5 days.
Yes, the alarmists will squeal like stuck pigs. A perfectly normal event (a hurriane during Hurricane Season) is finally now taking place. No matter what happens or doesn’t happen, they will squeal like stuck pigs one way or another.
Remember Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific a couple years ago? The experts predicted unbelievable destruction after it unexpectedly increased in intensity to 200+ mph winds.
And then BOOM … for whatever reason, it died down even faster than it grew in strength. Predicting the future is exceptionally hard to do, and one of the reasons why I’m not going to hold my breath on anything this hurricane might do. Hurricane Matthew was also supposed to be a Cat 3+ when it made landfall in Florida … but wait! … it neither made landfall in Florida nor anything close to a Cat 3 storm. Seems to me there’s not a whole lot to be won trying to second guess Mother Nature.
Let’s all hope and pray that this one turns out to be a dud too.
That is always my hope. Too bad alarmists cannot say the same.
Yep, hoping for hurricanes, just so they can yap about their fake religion.
Truly is SICK-MINDED !!
You are correct, hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable.
http://www.summitcamp.org/status/webcam/
Sorry to be off topic, but I could not resist posting the Summit Greenland webcam, showing the camp being buried by a summer blizzard that has been going on for days. No doubt the icecap is rapidly shrinking (sarc). It may even calve another iceberg, which will no doubt prove that humanity is DOOOMED!!!
As we have learned from Griff. It doesn’t matter. The SMB of the Greenland ice sheet or any other can never increase because of the nearly instant increase in calving. Glacier Girl and the other aircraft of the “lost squadron” were under 268′ of ice after 50 years because they borrowed down there themselves.
Let’s not forget that Texas is in a permanent drought, according to the global warming experts.
Joe Bastardi provides a detailed forecast in today’s report. It looks bad – “biblical” amounts of rain. https://www.weatherbell.com/ and then click on the “premium” button.
At a glance, looks like WB has San Antonio on the northerly boundary of the ‘Biblical’ rainfall amounts (15-18 inches, or so). San Antonio has a long history of major flooding issues. This could be a major issue up there. And, this area is just along the southerly boundary of the Texas hill country. If this intense rain pushes 30-60 miles North and NW of San Antonio, there will be major localized flooding in the hill country.
I was at Ft. Sam Houston in San Antonio in 1980 when Hurricane Allen struck down by Brownsville and tracked up towards Austin. Every motel in town was full. I was going through training and staying on the top floor of a newer barracks. Never felt threatened by the storm though the aluminum light poles over the adjacent PT field were swaying a good 3′ back and forth and the aluminum awning at the entrance of the mess hall was taken out. Some genius opened the fire escape door at the end of our bay at the height of the storm and it took three of us pulling on the bar to get it closed again.
I guess we all know how much this hurricane will be hyped by the cult.
It’s about time for the journalists to finally use those standard “agw-hurricane-gonna-kill-us-all” articles
which were written many years ago and ended in the drawers since then.
ftciii
The Weather Channel is now saying it could a Category 2 or 3 Hurricane by the time it makes landfall. That wouldn’t have anything to do with ratings, would it?
…will be curious to see the highest recorded land based observation.
First hurricane in 11 years,
…. and the US is cooling rapidly after the El Nino.
I bet you will all be wishing for those slightly warmer, more BENIGN times of the last decade.
Meanwhile, frost warnings are posted in parts of northern Michigan.
Not certain that’ll be a hurricane Hurricane Center had it as a TS coming ashore when I looked this morning. No matter the problem will be flooding because it will hang around between Corpus Chisty and Houston for possibly three days. Where it will go from there is anyone’s guess according to Eli at Tropical tidbits as of Wed. Evening.
Though I listen to Joe @ Weather Bell I find that Tropical tidbits gives better and more in-depth analysis of tropical cyclone development and potential tracks.
Levi Cowan at https://tropicaltidbits.com has put up a Thursday morning update video. Concur 100% that his site/twitter needs to be followed if you are interested in tropical storms, but especially if you are a resident of Texas or Louisiana.
Being on the road makes it tough to keep up when things like this change quickly. Hell, sometimes even sitting still makes it tough. I’m in a door getting loaded in Camp Hill, PA with the rig bouncing around as the fork truck runs in and out of the trailer. When I get back home tonight I’ll have been in 11 states (several of them twice) this week and put about 3,000 miles behind me. I have hauled new Mountain Dew cans, Monroe shocks & struts, Nestle’s Milk, and now am being loaded with her heavy wood “CHEP” palattes bound for Nestle in Anderson, IN.
RAH, I’d like to offer a big anticipatory thank you to you and your brothers on the roads that will bringing in emergency supplies over the next few weeks.
We shouldn’t be impacted where I live in Louisiana, but having seen those trucks come in the past delivering everything from water to generators to plywood makes me really appreciate the work they do.
Thanks, but really no thanks needed. I choose to drive for a living the last 12+ years. And it pays well. Gives me plenty of time to think. Gotta go. Loaded with 480 pallets totaling about 24,000 lb according to the BOL. Heading to the barn.
I should be clear. Joe simply doesn’t have time nor does he want to give away the store. Eli has the time. expertise, and opportunity, to get into detailed analysis on his site.
NWS now has it as officially a hurricane with 80mph sustained winds.
If the sustained winds are anywhere near Cat 3, they will label it Cat 3 no matter what, so they can end the ‘drought’….
..and that’s the problem
How many times have they said cat “something”…
…when there are no records, no where, of winds that high
Its a cat-astrophy !
As I noted in another story:
They’re now hyping Harvey as a CAT 4. They revealed on the weather channel this is because an aircraft measured some wind speed at 147…. and after much CALCULATION, they determined this WOULD BE 130 at ground level…..except that it isn’t. Notice, CAT3 ends at 129….. imagine that!
SUSTAINED winds (reported on the weather channel so far) are NOT exceeding CAT1 yet. The highest GUST reported was 103, with 80 or so sustained.
This is looking to be RABIDLY overhyped once again.
If it comes ashore at Port Aransas, should be able to get a good 10-metre wind reading for sustained winds.
.
I’m the only one left in my office, so I was able to literally LOL at this one.
CAT 5 doesn’t seem so bad.
Its not your cat !!!
bye bye.. Toto ! :-(
oops.. I should call a cat Toto, should I !!
Me bad ;-)
CAT4 made me chuckle, wife laughed hard, which made me smile. Thanks.
we have lift-off !
National Hurricane Center issued an update on Harvey at 1600 CDT. The latest forecast path map (like the 0700 map above) shows Harvey doing a small, but slow moving, loop in the vicinity of Victoria, TX. Current Tuesday afternoon position estimate is off Galveston Island. Track is likely to change, but a lot of misery coming no matter what it does.
Having survived at least 3 hurricanes bearing down upon Galveston before global warming was an issue, the liberal (not leftist) in me wants to blame climate change. But that’s all bullshit. The leftist is just plain stupid and I purged that long ago.
F0r some reason I suspect that probability is high that I will be team driving again to Laredo, TX next week. If that happens and Harvey does what’s expected I’m pretty sure I’m not taking my regular route into Texas via I-30. Instead the route will be I-70 W to St. Louis, MO to catch I-44 W down through Joplin and then a short distance into the KS to catch, US-69 at Big Cabin, then take that down through OK to Dallas, TX to catch I-35. Been a few years since I’ve driven into Texas that way but it is really not a bad way to go even though OK DOT can be dicks.
Today was not a fun day. It was one of those days when drivers grew grown horns. Ran into a big back up west of Columbus, OH and tried to detour around it only to run into another back up caused by an accident. It is usually not a good sign when you have multiple sets of blue and red lights passing you. Anticipating the worst I turned on the CB and sure enough the road was closed ahead, so I found a place to turn it around and had to go back the way I came 12 miles then over I-70 to US 40 to get around the construction I was trying to get around in the first place. Then east of Dayton at the I-675 interchange there was a bad accident on I-70. They shut it down while the life line helicopter came in. There must have been 30 emergency vehicles when I went by it. So when I arrived back at the yard the low fuel light was on and I was 13 minutes over the maximum allowable 11 hour drive time. But there ain’t no way I will ever pull it over to take a 10 hour break when I’m that close to home.
I don’t know why it is, but some days when nothing special is going on drivers just get more aggressive and stupid. I can see it. I can sense it. It’s like the slime from the Ghost Busters movie. It just builds on it’s self and the aggressiveness and stupidity grows in both magnitude and the number of drivers that it effects. Sometimes I think that most people never grow up in certain ways. The smart driver learns to sense when this is happening and knows it’s a time to back off and be extra cautious. Too easy to become part of somebodies accident.
Speaking of Ghostbusters, Beware of Gozer the Traveller, he will come in one of the pre-chosen forms. During the rectification of the Vuldronaii, the Traveller came as a large and moving Torg! Then, during the third reconciliation of the last of the Meketrex Supplicants they chose a new form for him… that of a Giant Sloar! many Shuvs and Zulls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Sloar that day I can tell you.
If there’s something strange in the neighborhood and it don’t look good, who ya gonna call? Ghostbusters!
I ain’t afraid of no ghost! Who ya gonna call? Ghostbusters (the original).
The press is giddy, wishing this storm to Cat5 but taking whatever disaster they can gen up. Rest assured, this will be the next Trump derangement disaster, at least won’t have to hear Russia and KKK babble any longer. I think these reporters really believe what they are reading off the teleprompters but across the board on the news broadcasts on the TVs at the gym this morning they were saying this is the strongest hurricane to hit the US in a decade. Which is technically true; there hasn’t been a hurricane make US landfall in 12 years so this will definitely be the strongest. Be prepared for the dejection and depressed reports if SOMEWHERE a rain gauge doesn’t hit 30”.
I think Bill Nye should be on the beach on the windward side near the eye wall personally reporting on how it is all due to us humans causing warming and more severe weather.
I wonder if all the people from the “Chocolate City” that fled to Houston and stayed there after Katrina are now going to move back to the Big Easy?
It’s a CAT 8 now.
Copied a statement from this article and posted it on GAB with the link. Now this GAB post has been used in a Breitbart article. Thanks Tony for your continued success spreading the word.
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2017/08/26/climate-change-advocates-use-harvey-tout-global-warming/
I am a scientist. The current climate change has been proven to be manmade through countless hours of objective research as well as anything can be scientifically proven.
Please remove and deactivate your website, as it is causing harm to millions of innocent people around the world in the future and is an embarrassment to the United States of America.
You are an anonymous moron.
RUBBISH !!
There isn’t even a single paper that proves empirically that CO2 causes warming in our convective atmosphere.
Erik , you are NO scientist… YOU ARE A FRAUD .
and a lying piece of human excrement.
and total embarrassment to yourself.
I’d tell you to deactivate your brain…… but that happened AGES ago.
Erik,
I am an expert. Remove and deactivate yourself. You are an embarrassment to our species.
FACTS .. they really do hurt the brain-washed AGW SCUM, don’t they :
Come on Erik
Have some BALLS.. join the battle.. or RUN like the COWARD you are.
I am a scientist. The current climate change has been proven to be manmade through countless hours of objective research as well as anything can be scientifically proven.
Please return your diploma, as it was obviously never earned, and you are starving millions to death annually with your below average intellect.
It is quite obvious the Erik is a scientist with a pHd in Scatology.