New Video : Getting Started With UNHIDING THE DECLINE

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46 Responses to New Video : Getting Started With UNHIDING THE DECLINE

  1. Adamant de-Nye-er says:

    Keep up the good work. The crooks are hiding behind obscurity of the data, the “magic” of data manipulation and crooked bookkeeping, and behind “proprietary” code. Transparency and open source represent the only ways to fight them.
    Do you reference where your data comes from, the US temperature data download source from the government? The next dirty trick I expect is for the base data set to be monkeyed with, so the more backups and archival copies, the better.
    I am an adamant de-Nye-er, meaning that the sooner we get charlatans and crooks, like Bill the science liar, discredited and out of this business, the better.

  2. Steve Hargan says:

    Excellent tutorial, Tony. Would you consider doing the same for those of us who use macOS?

  3. Matt says:

    Hi. I like the app — thanks much for working on this.

    One question — can we somehow plot data for a specific station?
    THX

  4. richard says:

    Posted on WUWT and Jo Nova.

  5. richard says:

    It needs a hook name- TOTO , now you have to make that work.

  6. Nelson says:

    Tony Of the top of your head, do you know why Norton deletes the PullingBackTheCurtain file when I try to run it? Thks

    • tonyheller says:

      They are trying to extort money out of content providers.

      • wert says:

        More probably not, but if you trust the binary, then you can run it. However, distributing exe files is rather a bad habbit for the reason it opens door to malware.

        You can submit the bin to Norton or Kaspersky and they will fix a false positive – and there are online scanners you can use to check Tony’s binary.

  7. Ishtar says:

    I have been enjoying your new product.

    Just a couple of questions:
    1) There are basically 122 years of data and so any graphic is based on the selected 122 data points (one point for each year). Right?
    2) Graphics that show “Percent of days above x degrees,” what they are really showing is the “percent of stations” that had temperatures above that temperature for each year. Right?

    FYI … It has crashed twice after about 30 minutes of use. I can’t identify any commonalities between the crashes.

    • tonyheller says:

      1. One point for each year.
      2. No, it is average percent of days during the year which were above that threshold
      FYI – python library bugs

      • Ishtar says:

        But the graph title is for a specific date (e.g., August 13)? If it is for the entire year, then it doesn’t change with the date? Why then does the percent of days below 20 degrees (for August 13) only show a few blips?

        • Ishtar says:

          I ran the program for a date of January 25. There is now a high percent of “days” below 20 degrees and only a few blips for “days” above 90 degrees. Double check!

  8. Ishtar says:

    Fun new additional commands.

    Two comments:
    1) the “states=” command requires capital letters for the desired states.
    2) All of the new commands (range, month, months, states) appear to be working fine, but the “date=” command no longer works for me (“failed to operate script ghcn”). Did the latest version of ghcn.exe cause a problem for that command? Is it just me?

  9. ducdorleans says:

    Tony, thanks for this site … you will be remembered ! …

    does the software need a 64-bit OS ?

    I get a message that “ghcn.exe is not compatible with the Windows version that is being run”

    I have Windows 10 Home – version 1703 – build 15063.540 … and a 32-bit OS …

  10. David says:

    I sure do wish I could use this. I have had terrible problems with Windows on three of my machines. It will not even re-install from scratch. Consequently, I have converted all of my machines to Linux. It just works, all of the time… every time. Would it be possible to transcode this to Python, or Ruby, or some other language usable outside of Windows?

      • David says:

        Thanks!!!! Found it.

      • David says:

        I downloaded your program and the data. It was interesting to run the program for the whole country, but as I further investigated, I ran the data for just my state. The results were interesting. I looked at the last 50 years, the time I have memory of and found a number inconsistencies, as well as some interesting fact. First the facts. I looked at the number of reporting stations. In the last 15 years, the number of stations has dropped significantly. More importantly, most of the stations are now located in the vicinity of the state capitol, the most highly developed are of our mostly rural state. This leads me to strongly suspect urban contamination of the recent temperature data. Next, either the data or the program is erroneous. As I said, I looked at a time frame I was familiar with, but events I remember well are not indicated in the data. For example, I remember well a February ice storm in either 83 or 84 that was so severe, it knocked power out for 10 days. Being in the rural south, we were not prepared. It was too cold for crews to work effectively restoring power. When power was restored, it was so cold, it was well into March before my home became warm enough to be habitable again. The data does not show this event, nor several other cold snaps and heat waves. Is it possible the data is more corrupt than we can guess?

        • Phil Jones says:

          Try finding the Station Data in the .txt file..
          Sometimes stations don’t report, or they are reporting, but Heller’s code sums up monthly, so 1 cold week may blend in.

          First check the .txt file..

  11. Marc says:

    Tony, can you address this with one of your graphs? Is there an issue with Alaskan permafrost… or is this analogous to the “ice-free arctic” (LOL always makes me chuckle).

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/23/climate/alaska-permafrost-thawing.html

    • David says:

      I think you might be able to make a sub-set of the data in the US.txt data file by selecting all reporting stations above a certain latitude, and saving it to a separate file. Then substitute that file for US.txt in the command line.

  12. jim@jimvano.org says:

    If I wanted to independently reproduce your results, I need to know your statistical/analytical methods. Do you publish your methods anywhere? I couldn’t find it. Thanks.

  13. Richard Bennett says:

    tony,
    My Symantec security protection does not like ghcn.exe file and removes it, so that I cannot install and run the unhiding the decline programme. Can you get the ghcn.exe file certified or whatever so that it can be accepted by computer security protection.

  14. David Blake says:

    Excellent work Tony!

    Runs on fine on Linux (Debian 8). I’ll be playing with this A LOT!

    A note to Linux users about installing Matplotlib: I had a fresh install so Matplotlib gave an error about png, and truetype. Installing a few packages solved all that

    sudo apt-get install libfreetype6-dev libpng12-dev pkg-config python3-cairocffi .

    Excellent product Tony. You really *are* a computer programmer!

  15. Richard says:

    Hi Tony,
    You have drawn some conclusions, but you have also backed them up with not only the datasets, but also the source code of your program, so everything can be examined and challenged. This is expected from a scientist. Thank you.

    I’ve been eagerly searching for a valid rebuttal of your findings, but the only response I have seen so far was Zeke Hausfather’s article:
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-data-adjustments-affect-global-temperature-records

    In that article, Zeke presents a chart that shows roughly the opposite of your conclusions, but I cannot determine how he reached that result, so I find it less convincing.

    I would expect a scientist to look at your analysis and challenge it by saying something like “yes, I see how you arrived at that result, but what you have neglected to consider is XXX”. Instead all I can find is “Tony says the sky is blue, but its actually red”.

    Do you know how Zeke arrived at his chart that says that adjustments actually decreased the rate of warming? Is he even starting from the same dataset?

  16. Analitik says:

    Hi Tony

    Just a note that this may not work properly for Australia as out BoM has been playing games with temperature measurements since the introduction of electronic thermometers making their data “questionable” (to be polite). I think this is well worth an article by yourself to further spread the word on how the warming trends have been created by government agencies with vested interests.

    http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/09/two-decades-temperature-data-australia-not-fit-purpose/
    https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2017/03/01/how-temperature-is-measured-in-australia-part-1/
    https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/how-temperature-is-measured-in-australia-part-2/
    http://joannenova.com.au/2017/09/bom-scandal-one-second-records-in-australia-how-noise-creates-history-and-a-warming-trend/

  17. Adamant de-Nye-er says:

    Can’t seem to find Hawaii or Alaska data. Is there a different place to download those stations?

  18. Tony says:

    Enjoying the data. A question though:
    When the presentation of data is titled “Percent of Days Above XX (degrees) Vs …”, should that be “Percent of Stations Above XX Vs…”? The graph actually shows the percentage of stations doesn’t it, or am I just light on understanding? (Don’t answer the second part of the question.)

  19. ren says:

    A strong geomagnetic storm may accelerate the volcanic eruption in Bali. Observations indicate an increase in lava levels in volcanoes during geomagnetic storms. For example, in the Kilauea volcano.
    https://www.facebook.com/Sunclimate-719393721599910/

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