Summers Getting Shorter In The Arctic

Prior to 2012, the Arctic used to lose ice in September.  Now they gain ice in September.

masie_4km_allyears_extent_sqkm.csv

You won’t see this reported by government scientists, because it is contrary to their fake global warming theory.

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11 Responses to Summers Getting Shorter In The Arctic

  1. Pethefin says:

    As Ron Clutz points out:
    “Earlier observations showed that Arctic ice extents were low in the 1940s, grew thereafter up to a peak in 1977, before declining. That decline was gentle until 1994 which started a decade of multi-year ice loss through the Fram Strait. There was also a major earthquake under the north pole in that period. In any case, the effects and the decline ceased in 2007, 30 years after the previous peak. Now we have a plateau in ice extents, which could be the precursor of a growing phase of the quasi-60 year Arctic ice oscillation.”

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/steady-september-arctic-ice/

    We might already have passed the bottom of an oscillation, which will make the lives of the alarmists very inconvenient.

  2. John Niclasen says:

    I did kind of the same analysis for Arctic Sea Ice Area from the Arctic ROOS data. Instead of subtracting one day from another, I calculated a linear trend for September each year.

    It is the same pattern with more ice growth in September in recent years.

    I then looked at March. It is the same again with less ice decline (ice growth in some years) in March in recent years.

    It looks to me, that the northern hemisphere is cooling down.

  3. wert says:

    Tony, Can you create a graph on the melting season length by year?

    It is getting shorter recently and the amount of melt is not so large as it used to be.

    • John Niclasen says:

      I have thought of such a graph too. To make it solid, we would have to fit a (sine) curve to the data around maximum and minimum, and then measure between the top-point of both curves for each year.

      As measured/calculated values jumps a bit at minimum and maximum, it is not very precise to just pick the highest/lowest values.

  4. Pol Knops says:

    The yearly minimum of the ice is ALWAYS between 1st en 29th September. So during the measuring period in the first half of the month the sea ice is declining and then it grows. So the period between 29th September and 1st September is a strange choice (given the fact that the minimum occurs within this period)
    More realistic to look at the absolute minimum or growth since minimum.

  5. John Niclasen says:

    DMI has graphs for “Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic 1958 – 2017”:

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    I calculated the days each year from the ‘mean’ temperature in Arctic goes above freezing in early summer to the last day in late summer, where the temperature is above freezing. (I don’t use a single day above freezing some time after the summer is over, as is seen in 2016.) I calculated the days by measuring the pixels between the two days and adjust for the width of the graph, which is 365 (or 366) days. Not all graphs are the same width, so this has to be done individually for each graph.

    According to this data and method, the Arctic summer is 10-12 days shorter now on average than 30 years ago. It is now less than 60 days or two months.

    I have attached my graph. In case it doesn’t upload, here is the link:
    http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/summer-outer-length.png

  6. Ferdinand says:

    I am not an expert regarding sea ice extent, but how surprising can this result be given that the past 5 years all had low minima? Suppose we had the power to let all sea ice disappear at the end of August. In such a situation I would expect a lot of growth of sea ice during September because the refreezing of the coldest parts of the arctic ocean which are never ice free would count as a gain in ice extent. On the other hand, suppose we could set the sea ice extent on August 31st to the largest extent it has ever reached in the last 40 years, then I would expect net melting during the month of September because at the fringes of the maximal extent that the sea ice cover reaches in March (or whenever the max is achieved) it would still be warm enough in September to trigger a melting of these fringes. So for me statements about changes in the speed of ice gain could make sense only when if they referred to the same geographic region. But that condition is not satisfied when we compare the pre-2012 period with the post-2012 period, because the minima of the sea ice extent have been lower in recent years (the refreezing starts in locations that are on average farther north). For the same reason I also find the discussions about the timing of the last melting day not very informative. But maybe I am missing something. If so just let me know.

    • John Niclasen says:

      Valid point. Therefore these results need to be examined together with e.g. temperature measurements (or calculations of heat content in the atmosphere), knowledge about ocean currents, etc. etc.

      It is a fact, that there in general is less sea ice in the Arctic in recent years, than in the late 70’ies and early 80’ies, but that period was at a maximum, when looking at longer time span.

      What this result, Tony Heller presents, tells us, is that you have at longer ice-growth season in recent years. So nature ‘push against’ a situation with less ice than at other times.

      Is the situation in any way catastrophic?
      No, not at all.
      But some wants us to believe that.

    • AndyG55 says:

      “but how surprising can this result be given that the past 5 years all had low minima”

      Not surprising at all.

      The expectation from anyone with knowledge of Arctic cycles is that extent will now start to climb over the next several years

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